Luck in the NL
I got to thinking about the my post on pitching luck. Rather than just focus on the Braves I thought I would post a list of NL pitchers with good luck and bad luck. I list pitchers with residual ERAs (rERA = Predicted ERA – Actual ERA) of greater than three (good luck) and less than three (bad luck).
Good Luck
| Good Luck Rank | Pitcher | Team | rERA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pratt | CHC | 7.91 |
| 2 | Falkenborg | LAD | 7.58 |
| 3 | Simontacchi | STL | 6.53 |
| 4 | Randolph | ARI | 6.34 |
| 5 | Wellemeyer | CHC | 5.62 |
| 6 | Christiansen | SFG | 5.59 |
| 7 | McKay | STL | 5.59 |
| 8 | Cordero | MON | 5.57 |
| 9 | Reed | COL | 5.09 |
| 10 | Wendell | COL | 4.89 |
| 11 | Gryboski | ATL | 4.80 |
| 12 | Szuminski | SDP | 4.65 |
| 13 | Perisho | FLO | 4.39 |
| 14 | Aardsma | SFG | 4.18 |
| 15 | Ramirez | ATL | 4.10 |
| 16 | Capuano | MIL | 3.97 |
| 17 | Ford | MIL | 3.85 |
| 18 | Nitkowski | ATL | 3.79 |
| 19 | Bottalico | NYM | 3.67 |
| 20 | Burba | MIL | 3.59 |
| 21 | Kline | STL | 3.54 |
| 22 | Harikkala | COL | 3.52 |
| 23 | Kolb | MIL | 3.31 |
| 24 | Telemaco | PHI | 3.26 |
Bad Luck
| Bad Luck Rank | Pitcher | Teamn | rERA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crowell | PHI | -24.73 |
| 2 | Estrella | SFG | -16.81 |
| 3 | Fernandez | HOU | -16.26 |
| 4 | Beltran | MON | -11.23 |
| 5 | Correia | SFG | -8.32 |
| 6 | Tucker | MON | -7.44 |
| 7 | Stone | HOU | -4.92 |
| 8 | Wuertz | CHC | -4.83 |
| 9 | Hernandez | MIL | -4.82 |
| 10 | Choate | ARI | -4.61 |
| 11 | Villarreal | ARI | -4.32 |
| 12 | Stark | COL | -4.19 |
| 13 | Fox | FLO | -4.17 |
| 14 | Redding | HOU | -4.00 |
| 15 | Mantei | ARI | -3.91 |
| 16 | Rusch | CHC | -3.81 |
| 17 | Wagner | PHI | -3.20 |
| 18 | Biddle | MON | -3.10 |
| 19 | Cunnane | ATL | -3.07 |
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Test
Hi JC,
Nice work. I think there’s more than luck involved. Redding and Stone of the Astros have been horrible this year, and were bad last year too. I’ll be what you are calling “luck”, particularly bad luck, is correlated across seasons.
Yes, it could be something other than luck. It would be interesting to see if the other stuff was correlated over time. I ought to look at some older data so I can track players from season to season. I’ll look into it. Thanks for the suggestion.