Luck in the NL

I got to thinking about the my post on pitching luck. Rather than just focus on the Braves I thought I would post a list of NL pitchers with good luck and bad luck. I list pitchers with residual ERAs (rERA = Predicted ERA – Actual ERA) of greater than three (good luck) and less than three (bad luck).


Good Luck


























Good Luck Rank Pitcher Team rERA
1 Pratt CHC 7.91
2 Falkenborg LAD 7.58
3 Simontacchi STL 6.53
4 Randolph ARI 6.34
5 Wellemeyer CHC 5.62
6 Christiansen SFG 5.59
7 McKay STL 5.59
8 Cordero MON 5.57
9 Reed COL 5.09
10 Wendell COL 4.89
11 Gryboski ATL 4.80
12 Szuminski SDP 4.65
13 Perisho FLO 4.39
14 Aardsma SFG 4.18
15 Ramirez ATL 4.10
16 Capuano MIL 3.97
17 Ford MIL 3.85
18 Nitkowski ATL 3.79
19 Bottalico NYM 3.67
20 Burba MIL 3.59
21 Kline STL 3.54
22 Harikkala COL 3.52
23 Kolb MIL 3.31
24 Telemaco PHI 3.26


Bad Luck





















Bad Luck Rank Pitcher Teamn rERA
1 Crowell PHI -24.73
2 Estrella SFG -16.81
3 Fernandez HOU -16.26
4 Beltran MON -11.23
5 Correia SFG -8.32
6 Tucker MON -7.44
7 Stone HOU -4.92
8 Wuertz CHC -4.83
9 Hernandez MIL -4.82
10 Choate ARI -4.61
11 Villarreal ARI -4.32
12 Stark COL -4.19
13 Fox FLO -4.17
14 Redding HOU -4.00
15 Mantei ARI -3.91
16 Rusch CHC -3.81
17 Wagner PHI -3.20
18 Biddle MON -3.10
19 Cunnane ATL -3.07

4 Responses “Luck in the NL”

  1. Anonymous says:

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  2. Anonymous says:

    Hi JC,

    Nice work. I think there’s more than luck involved. Redding and Stone of the Astros have been horrible this year, and were bad last year too. I’ll be what you are calling “luck”, particularly bad luck, is correlated across seasons.

  3. Anonymous says:

    Yes, it could be something other than luck. It would be interesting to see if the other stuff was correlated over time. I ought to look at some older data so I can track players from season to season. I’ll look into it. Thanks for the suggestion.