I had to do it. After awaking on the couch to see the Braves triumph in the bottom of the ninth over the Expos last night, I had blog about the Braves. In particular I have a few comments about some Richmond call-ups.
Nick Green: There is no doubt that he has played well. Green’s .875 OPS has been a welcome addition to Atlanta in the midst of the injury parade. But, I have wondered, how good is Nick Green, really? He has only has 60 ABs (70 PAs) since his call-up. Certainly, this is a small sample size to judge the long-term quality of a player. Currently, he is putting up .300/ .391 /.483, which is nice. Doing a little math on his MLB numbers, I find there is a 95% probability that Green’s true OBP lies between .316 and .465 and his SLG lies between .366 and .600. So at his worst, his OBP is better than DeRosa, LaRoche, and Garcia. But I am not so sure that worst case thinking is needed here. Compared to his Richmond numbers his MLB hitting is not all that surprising. In nearly 90 PAs in Richmond he batted .377/ .443 /.455. Only his SLG is better in the big leagues, while his BA and OBP are down a good bit from AAA as we would expect. Even extracting Greens two HRs, his SLG is still higher with the big club. I suspect his power will fall, but his OBP and BA are probably near his true ability. I would not be surprised if they declined, but I am not waiting for the fall.
Travis Smith: Before I left for vacation, I was analyzing the numbers of Richmond pitchers. One pitcher floored me, and it just happenned to be Travis Smith, whom the Braves called up on Sunday to start for Ramirez. In 51 innings Smith has struck out 44, walked 13, and given up only 2 HRs. That’s a FIP ERA of -0.88! So, I was very happy to see him get the call-up, and he pitched well. The guy is 31, so I don’t what the future is for him, but he sure looks good now.