My latest article at The Hardball Times is up: Moneyball and Efficient Efficiency.
The A’s focus on college players not because of a bias of stat-heads in thinking college players are superior to high school players; but because they are more predictable based on the statistical tools the A’s favor. A technological innovation in performance scouting, such as DIPS, can increase the efficiency in evaluating talent. DIPS ERA can be used to better predict a college player, but maybe not a high-school player.
As a result, the A’s are going to have a higher confidence when drafting from this talent pool. And if a technology can be employed in one area but not another, it’s no surprise that the A’s would concentrate on a talent pool where this new technology is useful. Just as the cotton gin caused southern farmers to switch to cotton farming, where the technological innovation could be used, so too did the A’s turn to the college talent pool where it’s inventions were useful.
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