So Long, Andy

I don’t even want to talk about it. I cannot believe the Braves just traded Andy Marte. Unbelievable. There’s nothing left to say other than this is a very bad deal for Atlanta.

13 Responses “So Long, Andy”

  1. Frank says:

    No trade, the Braves play Marte at 3B, Chipper at 1B, and Betemit at SS.

    With trade, the Braves play Chipper at 3B, LaRoche at 1B, and Renteria at SS. (And they burn money that could be spent on acquiring a decent reliever–something they didn’t do in the Estrada trade.)

    So the trade’s effect on the lineup is Marte and Betemit for LaRoche and Renteria. My vote–this trade is a stinker. The Estrada trade, though bad, is likely to have little LR impact on the Braves; the Marte trade will likely hurt for years.

  2. Andrew says:

    Hell, why not include Betemit in the trade? I mean we dont have any faith in a .300 hitter. He can’t play worse defensive at SS then Renteria did last yr. I like LaRoche even if he’s slumping, but why did we let Furcal go if we were willing to pay $10 mil for a SS not as good as Furcal? JS, the confuses me.

  3. Matt says:

    This deal has left me sick. I see no reason why Renteria will produce substantially more than Betemit would have, if given the opportunity. The idea of giving up one of the best prospects in baseball for the possibility of a slight improvement at the SS position seems absurd to me.

    I can’t decide if I want Marte to stink it up the rest of his career to make Schuerholz look smart or if I want him to be an 8 time all-star to make Schuerholz look dumb.

  4. JF says:

    JC, I’ll repeat what I said over at Braves Journal. Unless you think there’s something more we could have gotten for Marte now (i.e. if the market for Marte is inefficient) and if you don’t trust Betemit, you spend excess fairly priced assets which duplicate assets you have to gain an asset you need. What am I missing?

    It’s not even the sabermetricians against the scouts. Every sabermetrician in baseball knows Marte’s stats, and every scout knows his intangibles. What more than Renteria do you think you get for him?

    In an efficient market, to get a Renteria-quality shortstop you have to bundle either other current Renteria-quality talent, or Renteria-quality option value. To be a bad trade, you have to believe that you know something that the rest of baseball, not just JS, doesn’t. What is it?

  5. Konstantin says:

    If we assume the market is efficient, then it is reasonable to believe that Renteria’s trade value should have been negligible, or even negative.

    Trade value in an efficient market is inversely proportionate to what a player is being paid above or below market value. So what’s Renteria’s production worth in the open market?

    He was a free agent last year, and signed a deal believed by many to be above market value.

    A very dissapointing year later, his value has dropped even further. Last year he was believed to be worth $10M/year, and be worth zero in trade with the contract attatched(assuming an efficient market).

    The Braves are paying him $6M/year, which given his performance the last two seasons, would seem to be pretty in line with his new market value, given that his offensive decline in 2004 appeared to perhaps be his new norm, and additionally, he experienced a serious defensive decline.

    How much do you think .276/.335/.385 with mediocre defense is worth, even at shortstop? It was 1.8 WARP last year, which at a rate of $3M per marginal win makes him worth just under $6M/year.

    If 2005 is Renteria’s new norm, then the Braves are likely paying him essentially market value. In order to pay him market value, they have given up one of the 10 or so best prospects in baseball. That’s not the mark of a good deal, at least not when we assume an efficient market.

  6. JF says:

    But if you want to pay Renteria by his performance last year, then you have to value Marte by his performance last year, which is of course AAA performance. Both Marte and Renteria should be valued on present valued expected future value to the team. (Note that the “to the team part implies that different players might have different values to different teams, but not if markets are efficient, because they simply be resold to a higher valued team). We don’t know what Renteria would have commanded on the market this year had he been a free agent, but I suspect $6MM is way low. Imagine the Red Sox announced that they would give Renteria to anyone who was willing to pay him $6MM per year. How many takers do you think they’d have… 20? And in any case that doesn’t answer the question. Even if you are paying Renteria exactly what he is worth, you have to find a way to get someone to part with a $6MM SS. After all, it doesn’t do any good to put a replacement player in there, pay him $300K and argue that you may have lost a bunch of games, but at least you’re not overpaying your shortstop. Again, if you think you need a $6MM SS to be competitive, and your choices are to pay $12 million for a $9 million SS (Furcal) or take a $1MM SS (Betemit) and pay him $300K, what do you want to do? It’s your call.

  7. Mark says:

    I am a Red Sox fan and season ticket holder, and I look forward to Andy Marte anchoring our infield for the next 6+ years.

    On behalf of the Boston Red Sox organization and its fans, I want to sincerely apologize for fleecing the Atlanta Braves in this trade. But look at the bright side–Jeff Francouer and his .340 OBP will save your franchise next season!

  8. Ben says:

    I wouldn’t want to be so absurd as to try and argue that this trade is great or anything, but I see it as at least a little positive in that there is definite potential that it could work out well:

    -it’s entirely possible if not likely that Renteria will hit better than his past two seasons, let alone improve upon an out-of-character bad year in the field

    -While Marte is highly rated, he’s still just an prospect, and who knows what will ever come of him; additionally, the Braves, though their talent may not be that of yesterday, are still good enough to field a team to win NOW, and Renteria will most likely bring them closer to that goal in 2006 than Marte

    -Also, given that the Braves got a hefty amount of money from the Red Sox, paying Renteria $6mil isn’t the worst thing ever, and could potentially be a huge bargain for them.

    -Finally, while I do concede that it worries me that the Braves wanted to trade Marte, they were originally floating the idea of trading Marte to Tampa Bay straight-up for Lugo. That, to me, would have been a hell of a lot worse, even if Lugo is a little cheaper than Renteria – beyond his questionable skills is his crappy reputation as a human being, and i’m at least glad the Braves kept him out of Atlanta.

    All in all, I can’t say i’m pleased with this trade, but Schuelerholz is clearly operating in tail-between-his-legs mode (losing major free agents, basically paying the Brewers to take Kolb back) and I think it could’ve been worse. Still, bummer they lost Julio Franco, who I’m hoping will one day godfather my children.

  9. Ben says:

    Though I’ll P.S. that despite everything I just said, it’s also terribly possible Renteria gives up 38 errors, hits .250 this year with 25 walks and no power, AND accidentally puts out Francoeur’s left eye in a club wrestling match, all the while Marte steps in as the Sox’s everyday third baseman and by year end is the second coming of Scott Rolen.

    So I’m just gonna keep my fingers crossed.

  10. Marc Schneider says:

    The trade is troubling–I don’t like giving up potential stars for someone likely to be not much more than above average–but I also find it troubling that a lot of you guys are acting as these are Strat-O-Matic players and that you can precisely predict performance quantitatively. These are still humans and there are factors that can change performance–maybe Marte falls in love and decides he doesn’t care about baseball anymore or something. It’s a little premature to annoint Marte a star before he has even played in the Majors for any extended length of time simply because his minor league stats project that he will be a good player. I have a lot of respect for econometric or statistical analysis as an analytical device, but it’s a little frustrating trying to argue with the sabermetric uber-statistical view of the world, but simply projecting a great career is not the same as actually having one.

    And I question the idea that Renteria’s bad year last year means that he is a mediocre shortstop. He certainly has not been most of his career–maybe 2005 signifies a decline or maybe it was just one of those years. Perhaps Furcal will revert back to his mean this year.

  11. JPMouton says:

    The problem is that mediocre is EXACTLY what Renteria has been for much of his career. He had a nice peak, but to me the outlier is not 2005 but 2003. He’s just not a great player. Seriously, he’s had 3 different seasons somewhat close to last years(using Warp 3, 1999, and 2000 were pretty close to last year). His peak from 2000-2003 was good(even throwing out 2003 he averaged 5.4 WARP3 from 2000-2002), but he hasn’t been anywhere close to that since. He really seems to have regressed as a player. Would I give him a 3 year, 6 million a year deal on the open market? Nah, but it’s not a terrible deal. I’ll take it. But trading ANDY EFFING MARTE for it is ridiculous. The IDEA of Andy Marte is worth more than Edgar Renteria in a trade. To me it seems as if the Braves decided that they needed a SS, and they wanted to trade Andy Marte straight up for it. First to accept wins.

    Could Bill Hall really have been that hard to acquire in a trade? Wouldn’t Marte have gotten us Hall and MORE in a trade? Wouldn’t Chuck James by himself have gotten us Hall? Sure, theres a very good chance Hall is a .245/.280/.390 player, but theres also a chance that hes a .290/.340/.490 player as well. And he is one of the best defenders in the game. I’d rather pay him nothing and keep Marte(or even trade Marte and get another player in the deal) than pay Renteria 6 million a year. Hall is young(26), could probably be signed relatively cheaply(like 4/16), and has the potential to be an impact SS. What’s not to like about that? Are you telling me the Brwers wouldn’t cry in joy over having a 2011 All-World INF of Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, and Marte? I have to think they would gladly give us Hall, Tomo Ohka(basically a salary dump), Turnbrow, and a prospect? I don’t even like Turnbrow and I’d love that package, especially if we had previously decided that Marte needed to be dealt to fill our hole.

  12. Paul McCord says:

    1. Even after the trades, the Braves payroll for 2006 is currently under $64M. They can spend $20M more and still not match 2005’s payroll.

    2. Marte had nowhere to play in Atlanta. Chipper isn’t moving to 1B, because LaRoche has demonstrated the ability to play pretty well. He’s still a young player, but I see him being pretty decent, something between Wally Joyner and Will Clark.

    3. Renteria is a solid shortstop that we’re getting at a discount — less than half Furcal’s pricetag. Sure, the improvement over Betemit (if it’s any improvement at all) might not be worth the money, but it might be just enough to get the Braves into the playoffs, and — hmm — perhaps even past the first round!

    4. The Braves still have plenty of money to shop around for a good starter or closer. If another starting pitcher looks like a better fit, then #29 can go back to dominating the ninth inning, and I’m okay with that. And as much as Smoltzie wants to start, I think he’d be okay with it too, for the sake of winning games and benefitting the team.

    5. Forget all of that — as long as the Braves don’t sign Eddie Perez or Brian Jordan or anyone similar, I’ll be okay. And the worst off-season loss so far is Julio Franco, not Andy Marte.

  13. Jurgen says:

    …and by year end is the second coming of Scott Rolen

    David Wright already is the second coming of Scott Rolen, so the best Marte can hope for is the third coming. Maybe instead Marte should heed PECOTA and strive to be the second coming of Ron Santo.