With the announcement that Bruce Sutter will be the only inductee into the Hall of Fame in 2006, I thought I’d post my list of hitters still playing or too recently retired to be eligible whom I predict will be in the Hall of Fame. The methodology I use is the same one I used to examine which eligible players who should be in the HOF. Here they are, with their probabilities of getting in. This list is only for hitters.
Player P(in HOF) Barry Bonds 100.00% Rickey Henderson 99.80% Frank Thomas 97.44% Ken Griffey 95.63% Larry Walker 95.03% Cal Ripken 91.22% Roberto Alomar 88.01% Jeff Bagwell 86.85% Rafael Palmeiro 83.96% Barry Larkin 81.51% Alex Rodriguez 74.10% Ivan Rodriguez 66.90% Edgar Martinez 64.03% Tim Raines 63.32% Fred McGriff 62.86% Gary Sheffield 60.90% Tony Gwynn 60.78% Mark McGwire 58.73% Craig Biggio 56.77% Juan Gonzalez 55.64% Sammy Sosa 51.77%
There you have it. I don’t think there are too many surprises here.