The Dungy Index

I don’t know why this didn’t occur to me last year, but the methodology I applied to quarterbacks below makes as much sense — probably more sense — to apply to coaches rather than quarterbacks.

Since the methodology was described and discussed in the previous post, there’s not much to do here but post the list. So here goes.

                   expected actual Marginal
Coach                record record   wins
-------------------------------------------
 Bill Belichick         7- 6  11- 2  +4.4
 Joe Gibbs             13-10  17- 6  +3.7
 Chuck Noll            12-12  16- 8  +3.9
 John Fox               3- 4   5- 2  +2.3
 Jimmy Johnson          6- 7   9- 4  +2.8
 Brian Billick          3- 4   5- 2  +2.2
*Tom Landry            16-15  19-12  +3.1
 Bill Walsh             8- 6  10- 4  +2.1
 Jerry Burns            2- 4   3- 3  +1.3
 Bill Parcells          9- 9  11- 7  +2.0
 Raymond Berry          2- 3   3- 2  +1.3
 Bum Phillips           3- 4   4- 3  +1.4
 Tom Flores             7- 4   8- 3  +1.5
 Barry Switzer          4- 3   5- 2  +0.9
 Don McCafferty         3- 2   4- 1  +0.7
*John Madden            7- 7   8- 6  +0.8
 John Robinson          3- 7   4- 6  +0.7
 Dan Reeves            10-10  11- 9  +0.8
 Mike Holmgren         10- 9  11- 8  +0.8
 Mike Shanahan          7- 6   8- 5  +0.7
 Herman Edwards         1- 4   2- 3  +0.5
 Jon Gruden             5- 3   5- 3  +0.4
 Jerry Glanville        3- 4   3- 4  +0.4
 Ray Malavasi           3- 3   3- 3  +0.4
 Marv Levy             11- 8  11- 8  +0.3
 Jeff Fisher            5- 4   5- 4  +0.4
 Sam Wyche              3- 2   3- 2  +0.2
 Andy Reid              7- 5   7- 5  +0.0
 Bill Cowher           11- 9  11- 9  -0.2
 George Seifert        10- 5  10- 5  -0.2
 Dick Nolan             2- 3   2- 3  -0.0
 Tom Coughlin           4- 5   4- 5  -0.3
 Ted Marchibroda        2- 4   2- 4  -0.2
 Dave Wannstedt         2- 3   2- 3  -0.1
*Bud Grant              9- 9   8-10  -0.7
 Bobby Ross             4- 4   3- 5  -0.6
 Chuck Knox             8-10   7-11  -1.0
 Art Shell              2- 3   2- 3  -0.4
 Steve Mariucci         4- 3   3- 4  -0.6
 Don Coryell            4- 5   3- 6  -0.8
 Tony Dungy             6- 7   5- 8  -1.1
 Dick Vermeil           7- 4   6- 5  -1.0
 Red Miller             2- 3   2- 3  -0.5
*Don Shula             19-12  17-14  -2.1
*George Allen           3- 4   2- 5  -1.0
 Mike Martz             4- 3   3- 4  -1.0
 Jim Fassel             3- 2   2- 3  -1.0
 Mike Ditka             7- 5   6- 6  -1.5
 Mike Sherman           3- 3   2- 4  -1.2
 Dennis Green           6- 6   4- 8  -2.0
 Wayne Fontes           2- 3   1- 4  -1.5
 Jack Pardee            3- 3   1- 5  -1.8
 Marty Schottenheimer   9- 8   5-12  -3.7
 Jim Mora               3- 3   0- 6  -3.3

[Technical note: this list includes all coaches who coached in at least five postseason games since 1970, and only includes games coached since 1970. The coaches marked with an asterisk coached in one or more postseason games prior to that, but those games are not counted.]

This measures a coach’s postseason performance relative to his postseason expectations. So if a coach, say Marty Schottenheimer, scores poorly here, it’s not clear whether he deserves blame for underachieving in the postseason or credit for overachieving during the regular season. With my next post, I’ll take a stab at ranking the coaches based on their regular season performance only.

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