Why Are HOF Voters Ignoring Murphy?
The Hall of Fame voting this year reveals some information about the voters. Mainly, they’re not very consistent. For one, Bruce Sutter gets in but Goose Gossage does not. Have any voters posted their reasons for voting for Sutter but not Gossage? Goose received 100% of ESPN writer’s votes, while Sutter only got 80%. Well, enough people have pointed this out, but I want to look at how voters treated the hitters.
Jim Rice and Andre Dawson were the only position players with a majority of the votes. Dale Murphy comes in with a measly 10.8% of the vote. The thing is, all three of these guys are very similar.
Player Career Gold Gloves MVPs OPS+ HOF Votes Jim Rice 16 0 1 128 337 Andre Dawson 21 8 1 119 317 Dale Murphy 19 5 2 121 56
They all played outfield. They had similar offensive numbers. They all had a few spectacular years, each winning an MVP. All had few post-season opportunities. They played in the same era. Both Dawson and Murphy won several gold gloves. So, come on Braves fans, it’s time to start lobbying. Dawson and Rice have Boston and Chicago fans going for them. It’s time to start up the comparisons to guys who are receiving serious HOF consideration. It may be that none of these guys ever make it, but I think they all should be treated the same by the voters.
A big issue with Murphy and Dawson as compared to Rice is that the NL was the better league throughout their careers. They were the best players in the better league. They played the field immensely better. Murphy and Dawson probably got a slight home hitting boost, but Rice was a barely above average hitter everywhee other than Fenway. Should the next 20 years of voting ignore the Coors Field effect also?
None of the sabermetric tools that I have seen that are used to estimate true HOF quality show Murphy, Dawson or Rice as deserving. Now, whether these metrics are of any value or not is another issue.
Well basically the Hall of Fame looks like a crap shoot for the borderline players to me. I mean there are 500 voters and who knows how most of them vote? I’ve read about some on ESPN but really I think a lot of voters just don’t vote at all.
I think Dawson will go, hopefully the same year as Raines. Every metric I know of has some flaw, I like it when 2 or more different systems concur.
Anyway, a little subset of a list for you:
R+RBI+XRR(XRR is extrapolated runs reduced, similar to RC)
for players who started after WWII and were retired by 2000:
1. Aaron 6888
2. Mays 6171
3. Yaz 5751
4. F. Robinson 5660
5. Rose 5586
19.Dawson 4456
21.Dewey Evans 4419
26.Parker 4188
27.Staub 4176
29.Darrell Evans 4170
30.Rice 4086
46.Dale 3752
From Rose to Rice, those are the best totals that are not in, Dale doesn’t do too well (but not bad on this).
As the last word Mr. Bill has him as the 12th best CF ever (and conspired to list Dawson as RF where he is 19th).