Comments on: 2006 Braves Predictions

By: JC

JC — Wed, 22 Mar 2006 12:51:51 +0000

Andruw had some bad luck last year hitting the ball right at people. He actually had a much better season hitting the ball than his numbers showed. Luckily, he found the best way to get hits was to hit the ball over the fielders. His iso-power was silly last year. I expect him to keep it when his batting average goes up. I look for an OPS approaching 1.000.

I don’t think Chipper being in or out of the lineup helps Andruw in any way. See here.

On Devine, I’m not in a position to judge. He had good college stats, but he’s pitched so little in pro ball, it’s too hard for me to tell. And even if I got to watch him every day, I wouldn’t know what to look for. He might be Huston Street, but who knows.

By: Adam

Adam — Wed, 22 Mar 2006 01:41:58 +0000

JC. Andruw making 2005 look mediocre? Is this hyperbole? That would be incredible, but what type of numbers are you expecting that will make 51 bombs , 128 steaks, and a .575 slugging % look mediocre. And why? I guess Chipper’s reemergence will help. Thanks in advance. Also like to hear what you think about Devine.

By: JC

JC — Tue, 21 Mar 2006 12:46:34 +0000

He had an OPS of .821 in 2004. That loop may look ugly, but it gets the job done.

By: Chuck Oliveros

Chuck Oliveros — Mon, 20 Mar 2006 23:29:20 +0000

On what basis do you project LaRoche to have an OPS of over .800? With that little loop in his swing it is almost impossible for him to make last moment adjustments.

By: Frank

Frank — Mon, 20 Mar 2006 19:51:22 +0000

JC, I’m wondering about your call on Lance Cormier as the most effective middle reliever. I’m thinking that Boyer, McBride, or a loser in the starting rotation derby (Davies or James perhaps) might ultimately be more effective.

You’re predictions are internally consistent. If Cormier is the most effective middle reliever, then your prediction about the Braves ERA rising will likely be true.

By: Andrew

Andrew — Mon, 20 Mar 2006 19:24:31 +0000

JP, any Renteria predictions? Also, I fully agree with the Francoeur slump, Andruw’s bombshell, and Villareal’s injury plagued season. I also think Devine takes the closer job from Reitsma by May, and keeps it until somewhere around 2011 when he’s traded before hitting free agency.

By: JC

JC — Mon, 20 Mar 2006 16:43:10 +0000

Giles is a good-hitting second baseman, but PrOPS shows he’s been lucky most of his career. I have come to the conclusion that 2003 was a fluke. Maybe PrOPS doesn’t handle Giles well (he certainly gave the Braves organization’s projection system fits), but I I’m going to stick by the projection. And I absolutely love Giles. He’s still an excellent player who is very valuable to the Braves with the bat, glove, and running the bases.

By: Cyril Morong

Cyril Morong — Mon, 20 Mar 2006 16:30:41 +0000

Why the pessimistic projection for Giles? Is there some physical problem? I don’t follow the Braves that closely, so I might have missed something.

He has been over .800 the last three years and his career OPS is over .800. He is 28 and Bill James projects him for .837 this year.