Comments on: Age Cut-Offs and Month of Birth in Baseball http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2006/05/age-cut-offs-and-month-of-birth-in-baseball/ Economic Thinking about Baseball Sun, 09 Jan 2011 17:16:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Bruce Meyers http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2006/05/age-cut-offs-and-month-of-birth-in-baseball/comment-page-1/#comment-5571 Bruce Meyers Mon, 22 May 2006 01:01:05 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2006/05/age-cut-offs-and-month-of-birth-in-baseball/#comment-5571 When my younger son was born on August 1 at 2 am I immediately knew the significance. My wife, of course, was not in the mood to care much. But that extra year was important in LL for him. He was small for his age, but the "year" was very helpful. When selecting players for teams I looked at the birthdates as a factor. While not with LL per se, in HS sports, those children who stayed back a year along the line do have an advantage as well. I wonder how much this affects which ones, because of being a year older, make it on athletic scholarships for college. Enjoy the website very much. When my younger son was born on August 1 at 2 am I immediately knew the significance. My wife, of course, was not in the mood to care much.

But that extra year was important in LL for him. He was small for his age, but the “year” was very helpful. When selecting players for teams I looked at the birthdates as a factor.

While not with LL per se, in HS sports, those children who stayed back a year along the line do have an advantage as well. I wonder how much this affects which ones, because of being a year older, make it on athletic scholarships for college.

Enjoy the website very much.

]]> By: Dan Green http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2006/05/age-cut-offs-and-month-of-birth-in-baseball/comment-page-1/#comment-5415 Dan Green Mon, 15 May 2006 17:45:47 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2006/05/age-cut-offs-and-month-of-birth-in-baseball/#comment-5415 My baby son will be born in the next 10 days. I was depressed, and then I saw that the April 30 debate is happening. Time to call my lobbying friends in Williamsport. My baby son will be born in the next 10 days. I was depressed, and then I saw that the April 30 debate is happening.

Time to call my lobbying friends in Williamsport.

]]> By: Sean Forman http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2006/05/age-cut-offs-and-month-of-birth-in-baseball/comment-page-1/#comment-5411 Sean Forman Mon, 15 May 2006 14:12:00 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2006/05/age-cut-offs-and-month-of-birth-in-baseball/#comment-5411 Woo Hoo! Carl Larson Forman born August 5. Woo Hoo! Carl Larson Forman born August 5.

]]> By: Brian Hammond http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2006/05/age-cut-offs-and-month-of-birth-in-baseball/comment-page-1/#comment-5410 Brian Hammond Mon, 15 May 2006 13:52:47 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2006/05/age-cut-offs-and-month-of-birth-in-baseball/#comment-5410 FYI - Little League actually went through with the proposed change to the cutoff date, so it's now April 30. http://www.littleleague.org/media/age_change_Oct05.asp I have multiple reasons to complain - I was born July 26, and was always the youngest guy in LL, while my brother was born Aug. 4. And to add insult to injury, my son's birthday is April 30. It's almost enough to drive someone to put their kid in soccer. OK, no it isn't. FYI – Little League actually went through with the proposed change to the cutoff date, so it’s now April 30.

http://www.littleleague.org/media/age_change_Oct05.asp

I have multiple reasons to complain – I was born July 26, and was always the youngest guy in LL, while my brother was born Aug. 4. And to add insult to injury, my son’s birthday is April 30. It’s almost enough to drive someone to put their kid in soccer. OK, no it isn’t.

]]> By: David Kane http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2006/05/age-cut-offs-and-month-of-birth-in-baseball/comment-page-1/#comment-5403 David Kane Fri, 12 May 2006 15:38:38 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2006/05/age-cut-offs-and-month-of-birth-in-baseball/#comment-5403 The Levitt debate got interesting later in the link that you cited. Turns out that his data was from an astrology site! Not that there is anything wrong with astrology, of course. Seems to be something going on in hockey, but not among the better players. See the thread for details. It appears to be a draft inefficiency. So, the hypothesis for baseball would be that there might be a similar inefficiency (people are too quick to draft older high schoolers who look better than they actually are). Prediction would be that if you redid this graph looking only at, say, all-stars, the effect would go away. The Levitt debate got interesting later in the link that you cited. Turns out that his data was from an astrology site! Not that there is anything wrong with astrology, of course.

Seems to be something going on in hockey, but not among the better players. See the thread for details. It appears to be a draft inefficiency.

So, the hypothesis for baseball would be that there might be a similar inefficiency (people are too quick to draft older high schoolers who look better than they actually are). Prediction would be that if you redid this graph looking only at, say, all-stars, the effect would go away.

]]> By: studes http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2006/05/age-cut-offs-and-month-of-birth-in-baseball/comment-page-1/#comment-5401 studes Fri, 12 May 2006 14:19:14 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2006/05/age-cut-offs-and-month-of-birth-in-baseball/#comment-5401 A bit different, but it doesn't appear to be wildly different (at least to my eye). The one difference that does jump out (again, to my eye) is the July/August difference. I think that would confirm your hypothesis, in a very "localized" sense (seems to impact a couple of months quite a bit, but the effect is less pronounced -- if it is significant at all --in other months). A bit different, but it doesn’t appear to be wildly different (at least to my eye). The one difference that does jump out (again, to my eye) is the July/August difference. I think that would confirm your hypothesis, in a very “localized” sense (seems to impact a couple of months quite a bit, but the effect is less pronounced — if it is significant at all –in other months).

]]> By: JC http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2006/05/age-cut-offs-and-month-of-birth-in-baseball/comment-page-1/#comment-5400 JC Fri, 12 May 2006 13:30:34 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2006/05/age-cut-offs-and-month-of-birth-in-baseball/#comment-5400 Dave Kane, See Addendum. shonk, You're right. The school cut-off ought to be important. The spike in October is interesting. studes, I didn't look up the normal pattern of births, but Levitt posted this info on his page and it looks a bit different than the pattern in baseball. Dave Kane,

See Addendum.

shonk,

You’re right. The school cut-off ought to be important. The spike in October is interesting.

studes,

I didn’t look up the normal pattern of births, but Levitt posted this info on his page and it looks a bit different than the pattern in baseball.

]]> By: studes http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2006/05/age-cut-offs-and-month-of-birth-in-baseball/comment-page-1/#comment-5399 studes Fri, 12 May 2006 11:45:48 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2006/05/age-cut-offs-and-month-of-birth-in-baseball/#comment-5399 I believe this closely follows the normal pattern of births by month in general. Anyone who's ever worked in a hospital knows that September and October are high months for births. I believe this closely follows the normal pattern of births by month in general. Anyone who’s ever worked in a hospital knows that September and October are high months for births.

]]> By: shonk http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2006/05/age-cut-offs-and-month-of-birth-in-baseball/comment-page-1/#comment-5398 shonk Fri, 12 May 2006 04:26:24 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2006/05/age-cut-offs-and-month-of-birth-in-baseball/#comment-5398 For players currently in MLB, the more important cutoff is probably that for AABC and other competitive baseball leagues, not Little League. Of course, since they all follow Little League's lead, the effect is the same. Another important consideration is probably the cutoff dates for school grade-levels (typically sometime between Sept. 1 and Oct. 1). As a 13 year-old freshman, I remember the frustration of competing for playing time against 15 year-old freshmen, especially given that differences in physical maturity are so pronounced at that age (of course, my case was somewhat extreme since I skipped a grade in elementary school). For players currently in MLB, the more important cutoff is probably that for AABC and other competitive baseball leagues, not Little League. Of course, since they all follow Little League’s lead, the effect is the same. Another important consideration is probably the cutoff dates for school grade-levels (typically sometime between Sept. 1 and Oct. 1). As a 13 year-old freshman, I remember the frustration of competing for playing time against 15 year-old freshmen, especially given that differences in physical maturity are so pronounced at that age (of course, my case was somewhat extreme since I skipped a grade in elementary school).

]]> By: skyking162’s baseblog » Blog Archive » I Coulda Been a Contenda http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2006/05/age-cut-offs-and-month-of-birth-in-baseball/comment-page-1/#comment-5396 skyking162’s baseblog » Blog Archive » I Coulda Been a Contenda Fri, 12 May 2006 03:14:49 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2006/05/age-cut-offs-and-month-of-birth-in-baseball/#comment-5396 [...] ielder when I was 12. I never made it. Now I know why — I was screwed. Screwed by my month of birth. Who do I sue? [...] [...] ielder when I was 12. I never made it. Now I know why — I was screwed. Screwed by my month of birth. Who do I sue?
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