I would imagine that having an effect on getting into playing shape.

Unfortunately, while we may want to believe that the ‘S’ word will go away, I’m afraid that will never be the case. As time goes on, there will be better masking agents and newer, undetectable manufactured steroids to go along with HGH (and remember, there is no good test for HGH now). Performance enhancers will be part of baseball for as long as the salaries are in the millions and people are willing to part with a few quality years at the end of their lifespan for an extra few million dollars.

A more precise, but useless explanation would be “factors unaccounted for in our model created the difference between PrOPS and OPS” i.e. lucky = “beneficial unaccounted factors”. A more useful version is “factors unaccounted for in our model, which we believe have no predictive value, produced the difference between PrOPS and OPS”.

That italicized phrase is the key. It is unlikely, for example, that the flash of sunlight off someone’s watch that happened to blind the CF as he tipped Giles’ fly ball over the wall would be repeated; if that happens enough during a season, it will skew the numbers, but it is unlikely to happen again next season.

Thus, “lucky” = “it was a fluke, it helped and it probably won’t happen again”.

That italicized phrase is the key. It is unlikely, for example, that the flash of sunlight off someone’s watch that happened to blind the CF as he tipped Giles’ fly ball over the wall would be repeated; if that happens enough during a season, it will skew the numbers, but it is unlikely to happen again next season.

Thus, “lucky” = “it was a fluke, it helped and it probably won’t happen again”.

It’s not unusual in baseball history for players to have several very good years, then drop off. Giles may simply have lost something in his swing or technique or his body may have gone through some sort of natural change that affects his mechanics. The point is, there could be lots of reasons for the dropoff (and, after all, it’s still very early in the season) without bringing steroids in without any evidence. Clearly, though, Giles has at least leveled off. But that’s been true of a lot of Braves players over the years–they get to a certain point and then plateau.

I have one question. I don’t really understand the concept of a player being lucky or unlucky. Obviously, it’s a statistical concept based on the various sabermetric measurements. I’m not that well-versed in this stuff. Just what exactly does it mean?

It’ll be a huge relief when we get to the point where the “S” word isn’t invoked into every baseball conversation.

How do you explain why he used to look like a professional body builder and last year he came to camp so thin he looked like his skin was falling off his face?

I’ve watched Marcus since came up. He looks no different to me. I’ve never heard anyone else comment on his physique like that. Even if it’s true, muscles are not necessarily steroid-induced. It’s nasty business to accuse people of using steroids on such flimsy evidence. I think people need to be more careful.

Statistical drop-offs aren’t the only indicators of steroid use.