Second-Half Surges

I’ve been tooling around with the PrOPS data over at The Hardball Times in hopes of predicting which teams can expect to improve/decline offensively in the second half. Unfortunately, I’ve had little time to think about what I’m doing, so I’ll just throw these predictions out here without much justification or explaining the methods. Here are three groups of the unlucky, about right, and lucky. I predict that the first group will improve in run production, the last will decline, and the middle group is uncertain. The order does matter. Teams at the top (bottom) are more likely to improve (decline).

Unlucky (relief is on the way)
Athletics
Devil Rays
Reds
Phillies
Orioles

Just about right (more of the same)
Astros
Nationals
Angels
Brewers
Giants
Braves
Cubs
Red Sox
Twins
Diamondbacks
Padres
Mariners
Mets
Cardinals
Pirates
White Sox
Royals
Rockies
Indians
Yankees

Lucky (waiting for the fall)
Marlins
Dodgers
Blue Jays
Tigers
Rangers

4 Responses “Second-Half Surges”

  1. Russell says:

    Bill James developed the Pythagorean theorem of baseball: Runs scored [squared] / (Runs scored [squared] + runs allowed [squared]). This formula was designed to relate a team’s runs scored and runs allowed to its won-lost record and is usefull for predicting which teams will do better/worse or continue to perform the same. Based on this formula, the Braves can expect to do slightly better in the second half. (A .516 winning percentage as opposed to their current .473)

  2. What might be interesting is to use PrOPS to come up with new expected RS totals for each team and use that with pythag to construct expected W/L records.

  3. Tom says:

    The problem with looking at the Braves’ pythagorean record right now is that it’s kind of skewed because of all the blowout wins lately. While it can frequently be a good indicator of a team’s true quality, the Braves have been playing over their heads lately in scoring 10+ runs every night out. As Chris says, seeing what PrOPS projects for the Braves’ runs scored would be very interesting and might temper the expectations raised by the recent offensive onslaught.

  4. JC says:

    Chris,

    That’s exactly what I did, except for the hypothetical W/L part. The biggest gainers are the guys with the greatest differentials between their predicted totals and actual totals.