I’ve been tooling around with the PrOPS data over at The Hardball Times in hopes of predicting which teams can expect to improve/decline offensively in the second half. Unfortunately, I’ve had little time to think about what I’m doing, so I’ll just throw these predictions out here without much justification or explaining the methods. Here are three groups of the unlucky, about right, and lucky. I predict that the first group will improve in run production, the last will decline, and the middle group is uncertain. The order does matter. Teams at the top (bottom) are more likely to improve (decline).
Unlucky (relief is on the way)
Just about right (more of the same)
Lucky (waiting for the fall)