Comments on: Second-Half Surges http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2006/07/second-half-surges/ Economic Thinking about Baseball Sun, 09 Jan 2011 17:16:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: JC http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2006/07/second-half-surges/comment-page-1/#comment-7355 JC Tue, 18 Jul 2006 19:11:04 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2006/07/second-half-surges/#comment-7355 Chris, That's exactly what I did, except for the hypothetical W/L part. The biggest gainers are the guys with the greatest differentials between their predicted totals and actual totals. Chris,

That’s exactly what I did, except for the hypothetical W/L part. The biggest gainers are the guys with the greatest differentials between their predicted totals and actual totals.

]]> By: Tom http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2006/07/second-half-surges/comment-page-1/#comment-7353 Tom Tue, 18 Jul 2006 16:26:37 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2006/07/second-half-surges/#comment-7353 The problem with looking at the Braves' pythagorean record right now is that it's kind of skewed because of all the blowout wins lately. While it can frequently be a good indicator of a team's true quality, the Braves have been playing over their heads lately in scoring 10+ runs every night out. As Chris says, seeing what PrOPS projects for the Braves' runs scored would be very interesting and might temper the expectations raised by the recent offensive onslaught. The problem with looking at the Braves’ pythagorean record right now is that it’s kind of skewed because of all the blowout wins lately. While it can frequently be a good indicator of a team’s true quality, the Braves have been playing over their heads lately in scoring 10+ runs every night out. As Chris says, seeing what PrOPS projects for the Braves’ runs scored would be very interesting and might temper the expectations raised by the recent offensive onslaught.

]]> By: Chris Constancio http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2006/07/second-half-surges/comment-page-1/#comment-7352 Chris Constancio Tue, 18 Jul 2006 16:20:23 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2006/07/second-half-surges/#comment-7352 What might be interesting is to use PrOPS to come up with new expected RS totals for each team and use that with pythag to construct expected W/L records. What might be interesting is to use PrOPS to come up with new expected RS totals for each team and use that with pythag to construct expected W/L records.

]]> By: Russell http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2006/07/second-half-surges/comment-page-1/#comment-7348 Russell Tue, 18 Jul 2006 13:19:18 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2006/07/second-half-surges/#comment-7348 Bill James developed the Pythagorean theorem of baseball: Runs scored [squared] / (Runs scored [squared] + runs allowed [squared]). This formula was designed to relate a team's runs scored and runs allowed to its won-lost record and is usefull for predicting which teams will do better/worse or continue to perform the same. Based on this formula, the Braves can expect to do slightly better in the second half. (A .516 winning percentage as opposed to their current .473) Bill James developed the Pythagorean theorem of baseball: Runs scored [squared] / (Runs scored [squared] + runs allowed [squared]). This formula was designed to relate a team’s runs scored and runs allowed to its won-lost record and is usefull for predicting which teams will do better/worse or continue to perform the same. Based on this formula, the Braves can expect to do slightly better in the second half. (A .516 winning percentage as opposed to their current .473)

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