Francoeur Game Update

With a week to go in the Francoeur game, I thought I’d give a little update.

On May 19, I predicted Jeff would finish the season with the following line:

.260/.275/.465 ==> .740 OPS

Several others chimed in with their estimates. All, except for one person who seconded my projection, predicted that Jeff would finish above this. Well, here’s how Francoeur stands with a week to go:

.258/.290/.437 ==> .727 OPS

There’s still time for improvement, but not much. Jeff played out of his head in 2005. In my opinion it was a perfect storm of lucky bounces, poor scouting, and good performance. Next year is going to be a pivotal season. I hope the Braves will stress improvement rather than continuing to hype him as their next star.

I’ll be looking back at some of my other not-so-accurate predictions soon.

3 Responses “Francoeur Game Update”

  1. Marc says:

    JC,

    What is your feeling about Francoeur’s eventual ceiling? Do you think he will improve and become a good or very good player of just be what he is now? Frankly, I’m a bit skeptical that he can ever be more than a tools guy with a lot of power, but I hope I’m wrong.

  2. John Salmon says:

    Francoeur is 22-it’s a little early to say “there’s still time for improvement, but not much.” You’re right that the Braves need to focus on coaching the guy rather than hyping him-among qualofied hitters he’s next to last in pitches per PA.

  3. Erik says:

    I was thinking, up until about July, that Francoeur would snap out of it and start hitting hot. He has showed flashes of last year’s brilliance, but it has never lasted for more than a game or two (tonight being a perfect example). I think this season was doomed by that awful start. He’s felt restless ever since- always trying new things and getting discouraged by the results before the changes really have a chance to sink in. He’s become more patient at the plate lately, and has “amassed” 21 walks, with the vast majority coming in the 2nd half of the season. If he keeps that patience up, or even improves upon it, eventually pitchers will catch on and start throwing him strikes again.

    I still consider Jeff to be one of the best young players at hitting strikes, at any height. The problem is that he swings at so many non-strikes that pitchers have no reason to throw him any.