Baseball Awards

Again, I find myself having to apologize for not posting. I actually had planned to be writing a lot this week, but a few things just fell in my lap. I’ve got a book review or two on the way, and I’m going to do some more season-in-review stuff soon. I promise.

So, for those of you who are checking in, I’m going to dole out my 2006 awards (see the Internet Baseball Awards at Baseball Prospectus).

NL
MVP: Albert Pujols – just ahead of Brandon Webb and Ryan Howard.
Cy Young: Brandon Webb – the second most valuable player in the majors.
ROY: Josh Johnson – edges out teammate Hanley Ramirez.
MOY: Tie, Everyone not named Joe Girardi – if you’re going to butt heads with your GM, make sure he’s not Larry Beinfest.
GMOY: Larry Beinfest – one of the best, who hasn’t gotten much credit for his work with a tiny budget.

AL
MVP: Travis Hafner – How good was Travis Hafner? So good that he beat out David Ortiz with 123 fewer plate appearances. And he didn’t even make the All-Star team.
Cy Young: Johan Santana – just edges out John Lackey.
ROY: Justin Verlander – the popular choice, Francisco Liriano, come in second.
MOY: Jim Leyland
GMOY: Tie, Terry Ryan and Mark Shapiro – Both put together good teams on small budgets. The Twins keep doing what they do. Cleveland played much better than their record. I’m looking out for a monster 2007 Indians squad.

12 Responses “Baseball Awards”

  1. Mike says:

    Saying Johan Santana just edges out John Lackey is like saying Michael Jordan just edges out Scottie Pippen for most important NBA player of the 90′s.

    I love baseball stats, but I don’t think I can come up with a single one where Lackey beats Santana. Johan pitched more innings, won more games, lost less games, struck out more guys, walked less guys, and had a substantially lower ERA.

  2. JC says:

    Michael Jordan was much better than Pippen and Lackey and Santana prevented about the same amount of runs, so the situations are not similar.

    You forgot one important stat: home runs allowed.
    Santana: 24
    Lackey: 14

  3. Tom G says:

    The Marlins have several ROY candidates. Scary for those of us who follow other NL East teams.

  4. jpwf says:

    “Lackey and Santana prevented about the same amount of runs,”
    Says who? No metric I’ve seen has Lackey preventing as many runs as Halladay- who didn’t prevent as many as Santana.

    THT has Santana saving 47 runs more than Lackey
    Bpro has Santana ahead by 32.5 runs
    USA Today’s Sagarin ratings have Santana at .5 run a game better than Lackey- over Lackey’s 217 IP – that’s about 12 runs (without adjusting for Sanatna’s extra innings)- that’s the only place I’ve seen that has Lackey remotely close- but that Metric puts Lackey 5th- behind Mussina, Sabathia & Halladay
    WinShares has Lackey 7th amopng AL pitchers

    DIPs moves Lackey closer, but:
    1: Santana still handily beats him
    2: DIPs tracks Sanatana extremely well- he beats his DIPs ERA by the same margin virtually every year. Unless you believe in the pure version of DIPS (which even its originator doesn’t)- there’s now 1000 ip which says Sanatana is better than his DIOPs ERA
    3: LA is a slight pitcher’s park, Minn is a slight hitter’s park.

    I agree with Mike, saying Johan Santana just edges out John Lackey is like saying Michael Jordan just edges out Scottie Pippen for most important NBA player of the 90’s
    because Santana prevented many more runs than Lackey

  5. JC says:

    It’s based on a metric I will release in my book, which values the things players do. It is different from what others have done, obviously, but I have confidence in my estimates. These are not the Internet Baseball Awards, these are Sabernomics Awards.

    Both pitchers are very good. I really don’t care if one is better than the other, but if you asked me which pitcher do I think performed the best at preventing runs last year, I’d go with Lackey.

    Addendum: I got so caught up defending my statement that I forgot that I had Santana rated higher. What I meant to say is that Lackey was nearly as good as Santana.

  6. Beamer says:

    Interesting. I can’t wait to see that. Looking at the peripherals Santana does look better; FIP has him strongly better.

    One must keep one’s eyes open on these things.

  7. J. Cross says:

    JC, do you think that your model has predictive value? Is there reason to believe that Lackey will be able to keep up his low HR/FB rates?

  8. JC says:

    The model isn’t meant to be predictive; however, it is based off of stats that hold high predictive power. Lackey also did well in 2005 with the same system, preventing runs at nearly the same rate.

  9. E Proc says:

    Despite my bias as a hardcore Phillies fan, I understand your pick of Pujols over Howard for National League MYP. Even though their difference in OPS is negligible (18 points), it’s impossible to ignore Howard’s 181 strikeouts to Pujol’s 50. Do you forsee Howard obtaining Pujol’s plate discipline in the near future or is he just Jose Hernandez with better batspeed? Thanks for the input.

  10. Kyle S says:

    I have lackey at roughly 4.04 RA/9 in 218 IP, and santana at roughly 3.04 RA/9 in 234 IP. league RA/9 is roughly 5.00 for the AL, give or take a bit for park.

    so basically, they were roughly 1 R/9 and 2 R/9 better than the league average.

    calculating based on innings pitched:
    lackey is about 24 runs below league average
    santana is about 52 runs below league average

    so either:

    a) the twins defense is responsible for 20 or so of the runs that johan prevented, whereas the angels defense is responsible for 0 of the runs lackey prevented;

    or

    b) jc’s metric uses pbp/situational data a la WPA, and johan blew it in leveraged situations whereas lackey locked down in those

    jc, i realize you can’t divulge all the secrets of your book, but can you at least give us a hint?

  11. Kyle S says:

    to clarify that last post – lackey saved 24 runs more than the average pitcher would have, given his innings pitched, etc. they were both better pitchers than average, obviously :)

  12. JC says:

    My system values home run prevention more.