More on Matsuzaka

I’m tired of updating the previous post on the subject, so I’ll add another. David Gassko of The Hardball Times comes up with some estimates of potential contracts that take into account Matsuzaka’s value from being Japanese.

Here is what would [be] a fair offer to Matsuzaka:

3 years, $22 million, or
4 years, $49 million, or
5 years, $75 million

While I doubt that Boras and Matsuzaka would ever agree to the first offer, the latter two look pretty realistic. In fact, it had been rumored that Boras would be seeking a Roy Oswalt-type deal, and Oswalt got five years and $73 million from the Houston Astros. If the Sox can bargain him down to a lower price, they might just make a little money on Matsuzaka.

4 Responses “More on Matsuzaka”

  1. Bill says:

    I still can’t get my head around this. Adding in the $51m negotiating fee the Socks are looking at dedicating $25m a year for a pitcher who, while seemingly good, has never pitched in the majors. It’s just hard to see how this is economical. Clemens was paid a prorated $22m, but his average performance is reliable and outstanding. Guys like Randy Johnson, Schilling, Martinez, etc are topping off around $13-15m per–the Red Sox are going to dedicate $10m more a year to acquire this guy? It just seems odd to me–way to much of a gamble…

  2. Kyle S says:

    David assumes there is zero chance that Matsuzaka gets hurt in either 2007 or 2008 when coming up with those numbers. That seems wildly optimistic at best. JC, have you looked at pitcher injuries at all for your book?

  3. JC says:

    I don’t look at injuries in the book, but it’s an interesting topic that probably needs further study. I wanted to study it once, but didn’t feel like hand-gathering the data. There was a study on injures in the Bill James Handbook a few years ago by Sig Megdal (of the Cardinals and Fantasyland fame), and he found (I think) that days on the DL correlate from year to year.

    I wouldn’t think there’s zero chance of an injury, but I don’t know that he’s riskier than any other player. I think that’s more of what David was implying, but I could be wrong.

  4. jpwf says:

    “Update: I was way off. ESPN reports it’s a $51 million posting fee. I think one of three things will happen.
    2.) The parties don’t reach an agreement. Maybe the Red Sox were only out to prevent the Yankees from getting him.

    I’m betting on 2. ”

    That was my initial reaction as well- and found out on Primer that was it was a minority view. (Tiny minority).
    I now think the Sox had two goals- in order:
    1. Block NY
    2. Sign DM

    Now Lucchino has made things interesting- he
    A: Apparently asked Seibu to kick the difference bewteen Boston’s bid and the next hghest bid to DM- to sweeten the pot for DM; and
    B: Was actually so clueless that he allowed this to leak, and was suprised that many otehrs involved in the process felt this was objectionable.

    Based upon what Boston is willing to spend (as evidenced by the bid) I think Gassko’s figures are roughly accurate. I also think the overall payout associated with such a offer to DM is more than Boston ever intended to offer or pay- but Lucchino has now opened the door to a bad faith claim- so he’s really going to have to offer some big time $ to avoid a bad faith claim- and I don’t think $6M/year is going to do it.