The big story last night was that J.D. Drew opted out of the remaining three years of his deal with the Dodgers that would have paid him $11 million/year. For 2006, I estimate Drew’s bat was worth $9.5 million. I have him at $6.2 million in 2005, but he was knocked out by a freak HBP accident (it wasn’t his old knee problem, which hasn’t bothered him since his Cardinal days). Drew was on his way to an even better season, and would have put up a $12 million season if he played at the same level over the time he missed. These values account only for offense, and J.D. Drew is an excellent defender. But still, a guaranteed $11 million is a lot to pass up. It’s not like he producing a lot more than my estimates. Given what we have seen in the market so far, it’s looks like it’s going to be an amazing year for free agents.
Estimates from The Baseball Economist.