Random Thoughts

— An explanation for McGwire hate:

If you ask a random sample of friends how they became friends, they will probably tell you that they like a lot of the same things and, perhaps more important, that they like the same people. So they may. But one of the surest routes to friendship is disliking the same things about other people, according to Jennifer Bosson and three colleagues, who published “Interpersonal Chemistry Through Negativity: Bonding by Sharing Negative Attitudes About Others” this past June in the journal Personal Relationships.

— David Pinto of Baseball Musings has now posted defensive charts of his Probabilistic Model of Range for all players. Very nice!

— Sean Forman has somehow found a way to make Baseball-Reference better. Pages now include box scores, gamelogs, and splits. And there is much more on the way. Unbelievable.

Vernon Wells needs to hurry up and sign the Blue Jays contract offer of $126 million over 7 years. My most optimistic projection (assuming no decline in play from 2006) has him at $107 over 7 years. Wells’s PrOPS for the past three seasons have been .825, .835, and .867.

The money the Red Sox are paying for Daisuke Matsuzaka ($103 million) is right in line with what I project Barry Zito to get, 6 years, $100 million.

3 Responses “Random Thoughts”

  1. David Pinto says:

    Thanks for the link!

  2. David says:

    When you account for discounting, Matsuzaka costs a bit more.

    The Present Discounted Value (PDV) of the total cost of Matsuzaka, assuming he receives level end-of-month payments and a 5% interest rate, is $96.1 million. An annuity paid in monthly installments at the same interet rate for the same PDV would be $111.1 million, or $18.5 million a year. The PDV of a 6 year/$100million deal with equal monthly payments would be $86.5 million.

    Of course, if interest rates are lower, then the PDV of Matsuzaka’s contract increases, and if they are higher, the PDV decreases.

  3. I think your right and Zito will get close to the same deal. Do you think the Mets will get Zito?

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