Disappointed Again
For several years, Braves fans have had two post-season rituals: watching the Braves lose in the playoffs and seeing Dale Murphy fall short of Hall of Fame induction. The Braves didn’t even make the playoffs this year so I thought that might be a good omen for Murphy. But with all the Hall of Fame talk, I soon became scared that Murph might fall off the ballot. That didn’t happen—he garnered 9.2% of the votes—but I’m not sure it’s much of a victory.
Last season, I developed a list of position players not in the Hall of Fame but should be. Murphy was on that list.
Player First Last P(in HOF) Bill Dahlen 1891 1911 80.18% Pete Rose 1963 1986 78.39% George Van Haltren 1887 1903 72.86% Keith Hernandez 1974 1990 70.99% Dwight Evans 1972 1991 68.46% Dale Murphy 1976 1993 68.43% Jimmy Ryan 1885 1903 66.83% Bob Elliott 1939 1953 58.84% Phil Cavarretta 1934 1955 57.99% Bob O’Farrell 1915 1935 55.68% Vern Stephens 1941 1955 52.99% Bob Johnson 1933 1945 52.79% Dolph Camilli 1933 1945 52.59% Cupid Childs 1888 1901 51.64% Larry Doyle 1907 1920 50.56% Deacon McGuire 1884 1912 50.09%
As a side project, I also looked at the Hall of Fame chances of not-yet eligible players.
Player P(in HOF) Barry Bonds 100.00% Rickey Henderson 99.80% Frank Thomas 97.44% Ken Griffey 95.63% Larry Walker 95.03% Cal Ripken 91.22% Roberto Alomar 88.01% Jeff Bagwell 86.85% Rafael Palmeiro 83.96% Barry Larkin 81.51% Alex Rodriguez 74.10% Ivan Rodriguez 66.90% Edgar Martinez 64.03% Tim Raines 63.32% Fred McGriff 62.86% Gary Sheffield 60.90% Tony Gwynn 60.78% Mark McGwire 58.73% Craig Biggio 56.77% Juan Gonzalez 55.64% Sammy Sosa 51.77%
One year later, Ripken and Gwynn made it, but McGwire did not. I do think that McGwire will eventually get in, but I wonder about Barry Bonds and that 100% probability.
Thinking about who gets into the Hall of Fame is a great way to introduce people to sabermetrics. One of the first books Doug Drinen handed me on sabermetrics was Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame? by Bill James. After that, I was hooked.
For more on Murph and the HOF see Mac Thomason’s excellent series.
Murph is hurt by two things. Right or wrong, his failure to reach 400 homers (he finished with 398) is being held against because voters have proven conclusively that they like milestones. This is why guys like Kaat and Blyleven don’t get in and Sutton did – Sutton won 300 games, they didn’t. The second problem with Murph is that he faded badly. You could argue that he was washed up at age 34 and by 38 he didn’t even have enough power left to hit doubles. Murph and Eddie Murray were very similar players for a long time, but Murray lasted long enough to get 3000 hits and like I said, Murph was toast by age 34.
I would expect that Murphy is also hurt by his low batting average.
Interesting that Larry Walker has a higher percentage than Ripken. I don’t see Walker making it – talent was there, but too many short seasons and the Coors effect. While he “qualifies” under the HOF monitor, standards. He is slightly short on the black and grey ink (what he got was driven by Coors field).
He will be an interesting case.