Archive for February, 2007
More Predicting the HOF
J.C. Zannis continues his HOF series. He looks at who’s in that shouldn’t be and who should be in (including active players).
Winning and Hall of Fame Induction
J.C. Zannis of The Cat’s Cradle has started a series of posts looking at factors that influence Hall of Fame induction for hitters. As a base for his analysis he uses my very basic model.
Last year JC Bradbury at Sabernomics created a list of position players who are not in the baseball hall of fame, but should be (more recent update here). I was intrigued by the list, but felt that, fair or not, winning and postseason success likely factor into voters decisions. I also wondered whether traditional stats such as hits and home runs might not predict voter behavior better than linear weights (about which voters are likely poorly informed).
The project became a bit long for one post so I’ll do it in parts. The next post (part 2) will compare model specifications and provide lists of players who are not enshrined, but best match the players already in the hall. Next I will look at hall of famers who had the lowest probability of induction and current or recently retired players who have the best chance of induction. Finally I may look at how changes in productivity would have affected players’ hall of fame chances (e.g. what difference would an additional all-star caliber season have made for Dale Murphy). For the last section I’m happy to take suggestions.
In his second post he finds something very interesting.
The real difference between [Bradbury's basic model] and [a model that includes the average winning percentage of a players teams as well as a dummy variable indicating whether he won a world series] shows up when comparing players. [The latter model] was particularly harsh on Professor Bradbury’s favorite player, Dale Murphy. According to it, Murphy’s chances were hurt by his lack of a World Series ring and the .443 winning percentage of the teams he played on.
It’s a shame, but I’m not surprised about the impact of team quality. I’m looking forward to the next two parts. I like what he’s doing here.
S.I. Interview with Sean Forman
John Donovan writes a nice article about Baseball-Reference and the man behind it, Sean Forman. There have been many articles on the greatness of B-R, but this piece is especially nice because it includes a long interview with Sean. What is great about Baseball-Reference is that it’s not just a pile of useful statistics, it’s a well-organized pile. Sean has a good vision for what he is doing, and he really has succeeded at putting a friendly face on publicly available data.
Sean has been so successful with B-R, and his related Sports Reference ventures, that it has become his full-time job. Giving up a tenured job at a good university is a difficult thing to do. One thing that many people may not know is that Sean’s business sense and entrepreneurial spirit are his greatest strengths. Yes, his computing and intellectual abilities are high—not to mention his vast love and knowledge of baseball—but even with these strengths, few people are able to turn a hobby into a career. And it’s not like Sean just cashed in on a good idea; his mini-empire (maybe it’s a fiefdom) is the product of several years of consistent work according to a plan. I can imagine this project going wrong in so many ways in hind-sight. How he avoided all of the pitfalls along the way is testament to his abilities.
Say What?
MLB.com Braves beat reporter Mark Bowman:
Still, while battling the storm, McDowell showed the patience and intellect necessary to make progress. The evolution of Macay McBride and Tyler Yates were a result of McDowell’s dedication and patience — two necessary qualities his predecessor didn’t always show.
Had Leo Mazzone been handed this pitching staff and faced the same obstacles, I’m apt to believe last year might have been a disaster on the pitching front in Atlanta. Young pitchers like McBride and Yates need somebody to provide both direction and confidence. With McDowell, they had somebody capable of providing both.
(emphasis added)
Look, I don’t believe that last year is evidence that McDowell is a bad pitching coach, nor do I think it shows he’s any good. But to say that Mazzone would have done worse is a bit much. I don’t know how you can defend that statement since the Braves pitched even worse after he left with a similar staff. I’m not sure what qualities make someone a good pitching coach—patience and dedication probably aren’t negatives—but Mazzone definitely has them.
In my upcoming book, I update my previous study on Leo Mazzone’s effectiveness as a pitching coach. This study takes into account aging, park effects, defense, pitcher quality, and the run environment of the league. What I find is that during his years in Atlanta, pitchers who pitched for Mazzone and with another pitching coach had ERAs 0.64 lower with Mazzone than without. How does this happen? Pitchers under Mazzone increase their strikeouts by 10% and lower their home run rates by 20%. I could not find any effect on walks. This is interesting, because it fits exactly with Leo’s advice to his pitchers.
Don’t give into the strike zone. This is about making pitches and trying to execute a good pitch. So forget about walks. And don’t throw one down the middle just because you walked a guy. I’d rather you be off the plate a little than give up a three-run bomb.
Furthermore, when pitchers leave Mazzone, they tend to revert to their old form.
Some Leo detractors have pointed to his first year with the Orioles, who had a pretty bad pitching season in 2006. I think his experience was quite similar to McDowell’s: he had a year of adjustment to a new environment and players, coupled with a little bad luck. But let’s not forget that Mazzone had 14 years of success in Atlanta with many different kinds of pitchers: young and old, lefties and righties, starters and relievers, jocks and nerds, future Hall of Famers and Quad-A cast-offs. If you’re looking to call some period of Mazzone’s career a fluke, last year would probably be a good pick.
Maybe Leo Mazzone is overrated, but the evidence indicates that he is good at what he does. Sure a few his former pitchers have complained about him, but many more have offered praise and given him plenty of credit. I was once one of those who thought his reputation was overblown, but I have changed my mind. Leo Mazzone is a damn good pitching coach, and I expect the Orioles to reap the benefits of his expertise for many years to come.
The Lull
I hate the day after the Super Bowl. Football season just ended, Spring Training is still a month away, and the hot-stove league is concerned with minor deals. I used to be a big basketball fan, but I just don’t find it interesting anymore. I’ll watch a little March Madness, and maybe some of the ACC Tournament, but I’m just counting the days (56) until Opening Day.
Now, I prefer baseball to football, but I do enjoy watching football on the weekends when baseball isn’t on. And though I often find my preferences to be different than the average American, I think this is one of the cases where many people feel the same way. The NFL is raking in money, but I think there is plenty more on the table. Why doesn’t the NFL expand its regular season by a few games? Why hasn’t another league started up to compete?
I think one of these two things has to happen very soon. I haven’t done an in depth study of the issue, but the revenue and salary numbers lead me to believe that NFL players are not paid nearly what they generate in terms of revenue. I think it would be very easy for a rogue league to get many good players to jump ship. Additionally, many college players participating in the student-athlete farce of “college” football ought to be willing to jump to pro football.
The USFL tried and failed over 20 years ago (1983-1985). The XFL didn’t last more than one season (2001). Both of these leagues had problems. The USFL was poorly organized, but still almost survived. The XFL was a joke, and forgot the fundamental reason why people watch football—it’s a fun game to watch and doesn’t need any fake drama. Plus, the XFL did not pretend to hire major-league talent.
The sports world is booming along with the economy. More and more fans—in particular, wealthy fans—are watching football. And we have plenty of eccentric billionaires who would love some public adoration. Now is the time for new league or an expanded slate of NFL games. There’s just too big of an opportunity here for this not to happen.
