Andruw versus Frenchy

We haven’t played a game in a while. I’m really getting sick of Joe “Other Way” Simpson bashing Andruw Jones for his slump. It’s like he hasn’t been watching the team he’s been calling for a decade. Andruw Jones has never hit to the opposite field, even when he was going good. You’d think he’d be an expert on slumps since his career was nothing but one (I acknowledge that Joe’s career was a lot better than mine). Anyway, I don’t like the fact that Other Way never gave Frenchy a hard time last year when he was just as deserving of criticism. Now he won’t stop gushing about the kid (hey, Francoeur does deserve praise).

So, here is the game. Who will finish with a higher OPS, Andruw or Frenchy? I’m on the road so I won’t be monitoring the comments as frequently as I normally do. If your prediction doesn’t appear immediately, have patience.

I’ll start: Andruw, by more than 50 points. My guess is that Joe would take Frenchy if he read this site.

21 Responses “Andruw versus Frenchy”

  1. John W says:

    I think it might be closer, but I’ll also go with Andruw. I don’t think Frenchy’s BABIP will be over .350 for long. Hopefully they’ll both end up somewhere around .900, rather than .800.

  2. Dave says:

    I say Jones by about 35+/-. I’m guessing ‘Frenchy’ to finish around 835 and Jones to finish around 870. It looks like Jones’ walk rate is still good (slightly down from last year) it’s just his average is down and therefore his power. I fully expect his BA to come back to around career average.

  3. Dreamscape says:

    Andruw by .025 points. Say something along the lines of .845-.820

  4. Marc Schneider says:

    Andruw better be higher by 40 points or the Braves are screwed. But I don’t think Simpson is being unreasonable criticizing Andruw. He might be wrong about the specifics of him not going to right field, but if you look at how he is swinging, it’s pretty awful in my view. He has no balance at all and keeps going down to one knee when he swings. This can’t be a good way to hit. I give Simpson some credit for picking up that Andruw wasn’t swinging that well even when he was getting some hits earlier in the year.

  5. Andrew says:

    I say Mr. Jones by a significant margin. Best guess is .940 to .840.

  6. Kostya says:

    I’ll take Francoeur. He’s currently got 137 points of OPS on Andruw, and their PrOPS’ are about equal right now.

  7. Jason says:

    I’ll pick Andruw over Frenchy by 20 points.

  8. AbsurdIntensity says:

    Kostya:

    You are entirely right, Francoeur will be better than Andruw this year.

    J.C. will go to great lengths to blog about the players he loves (Andruw and Marcus Giles) even when they are killing the team and sabatoging our season. As much as I like reading this site, he will never admit to being wrong and will always use illogical arguments to try and assert he is right.

    while all of us are being positive, sane-minded people loving Kelly Johnson, he is busy hating the Braves and blaming the front office for cutting Giles loose. I wonder what his economic projections would say about the value per dollar we are getting from KJ versus what we would have gotten from Giles. I’m sure he’ll spin it so that Giles is better. Just like trading AJ wouldn’t give the Braves a better value in the long-run, what a joke.

  9. JC says:

    AbsurdIntensity,

    ??? Do you really read this site regularly? I’m a KJ hater? KJ is one of my favorite players. He will have a better career than Francoeur and might possibly be better than McCann.

    As for Giles, I don’t think there is anyone else out there who had been calling Giles overrated more than I did prior to his 2006. I wrote up a whole post on why the Braves had to cut Giles loose because his arbitration awards were making him more expensive than his true value.

    Furthermore, I don’t know why I would discuss trading AJ since he’s a 10-5 player and cannot be traded without his consent, which he won’t give.

    If you have personal problem with me, send me a an e-mail. This is not the appropriate way to handle this.

  10. oldejoe says:

    “J.C. will go to great lengths to blog about the players he loves (Andruw and Marcus Giles) even when they are killing the team and sabatoging our season.”

    Red Sox Nation reporting in…. The last time I looked, it’s still May and the Braves are playing .600 ball. The team is far from death and the season is far from sabatoged. No need to panic over Jones quite yet.

  11. LatNam says:

    I’ll go with Andruw, and I too think it’ll be fairly close. I’m hoping its close because Francoeur keeps improving and Andruw turns it around, not that Andruw stays where he is and Francoeur comes back to Earth.

    Either way though, I think Andruw will come out ahead. More than .025 less than .075.

  12. John Beamer says:

    JC — I’ll punt for a dead heat, if that’s allowed

  13. jpwf says:

    Andruw- even though Frenchy’s at .860 now I don’t see him staying much over .800 for the year- .820 tops- he’s improved his plate discipline- from horrendous to merely very bad- he doesn’t have the quickness you need to get away with such bad discipline (ie: Vlad or Soriano) His swing is too long (though he has shortened it a bit) and he takes to long from start to finish.

    Jones’ OPS for his last 3 years is .833, .922 and .894
    he’s just had a terrible May- that happens sometimes

  14. Ron says:

    If Andruw regains his form of the past 2 years which there’s no reason to think he won’t, he will certainly end up with a higher OPS than Francoeur.

    Both of them will have lower OPS than Chipper and possibly McCann.

    Andruw has better plate discipline (takes more walks) than Jeff. Jeff is making better contact.

    The fact that Andruw never, ever hits to right field means he is not as good a hitter as, say, Chipper or McCann or Ryan Howard or Albert Pujols. Andruw is a very good power hitter when he is at his best, but he would be even better if he tried to hit balls on the outside corner hard the other way instead of weakly pulling them to short or swinging wildly and missing.

  15. Kent says:

    I’ll take Andy by 17 points.

  16. Brent says:

    Why would Andruw veto a trade? I think, with the way his season is going right now, Scott Boras would advise him to accept a trade, especially if it sent him to a big market team like LA, New York, or Boston. At this point, that might be the one thing that could get his market value back into the Vernon Wells realm.

    And while Andruw generally does pull the ball on ground balls, his trend, at least for the last 4 years, has been to hit flyballs to center and right field more than pulling it.

    As for my vote, give me Francoeur by a hair in what should be a productive season for both guys.

  17. JC says:

    And while Andruw generally does pull the ball on ground balls, his trend, at least for the last 4 years, has been to hit flyballs to center and right field more than pulling it.

    This is not true.

  18. Brent says:

    What are your numbers showing?

    Mine give the following opposite field flyball rates for Andruw:
    2003: 36.5%
    2004: 31.5%
    2005: 30.7%
    2006: 32.1%

    Here are his flyball pull rates over the same period:
    2003: 22.6%
    2004: 20.7%
    2005: 27.2%
    2006: 21.7%

    Rather than simply saying I’m wrong, could you put up some factual data which shows Andruw is a pull flyball hitter?

  19. JC says:

    Brent,

    Where is this data from? Interesting. I’d love to look at this further. Since you initially did not provide data, I assumed you were just passing along more anecdotal fluff—I get this a lot. I’ve blogged on the topic numerous times. Please search for the posts. Believe me, you will find few people more interested in data than me.

    If you look at AJ’s hit charts, nearly all of his hits are to left, and the balls he hits to right are more frequently turned into outs. I am surprised to see him hitting more of his flyballs to right than left, but I guess this is consistent with weak opposite-field versus strong pull-field power.

  20. Brent says:

    I got the flyball data from a downloadable program that was made available on baseballprospectus.com over the winter.

    Where is a good source for hit charts? I was simply looking at a chart of balls in play, which is valuable in its own way, but I’d like to see hit charts, especially if broken down by XBH variety.

  21. Frank says:

    JC,

    It looks like you’re spot on with this game. Francoeur’s lead is now down to .029, having narrowed by some 100 OPS point in just 10 days (see comment #6). All Jones has to do is revert to his normal batting avg of .260 and he’ll pass Francoeur.