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	<title>Comments on: Braves on the Block</title>
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	<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/06/braves-on-the-block/</link>
	<description>Economic Thinking about Baseball</description>
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		<title>By: Jugular</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/06/braves-on-the-block/comment-page-1/#comment-53379</link>
		<dc:creator>Jugular</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 30 Jun 2007 18:22:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/06/braves-on-the-block/#comment-53379</guid>
		<description>To &quot;Chipper&#039;s cousin&quot;: I was under the impression that JS kept a tight lip regarding possible deals with everyone, including his players. Remember how upset Andruw got when word got out of the team shopping him? You were right to call it a &quot;big fish&quot; deal, because that&#039;s exactly what it smells like.

That being said, the possible trade percentages posted on this site are just arbitrary.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>To &#8220;Chipper&#8217;s cousin&#8221;: I was under the impression that JS kept a tight lip regarding possible deals with everyone, including his players. Remember how upset Andruw got when word got out of the team shopping him? You were right to call it a &#8220;big fish&#8221; deal, because that&#8217;s exactly what it smells like.</p>
<p>That being said, the possible trade percentages posted on this site are just arbitrary.</p>
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		<title>By: Big D</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/06/braves-on-the-block/comment-page-1/#comment-53332</link>
		<dc:creator>Big D</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 30 Jun 2007 02:33:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/06/braves-on-the-block/#comment-53332</guid>
		<description>You make alot of sense. ( I actually talked to him before takeoff. Our grandmother is sick and he was asking about her) I wasn&#039;t a braves fan before Chipper. Of course I am now. I&#039;d still love to see him in Arlington or Az. YOu make sense with your reason but I don&#039;t see it happening. I&#039;m leaving tomorrow a.m. for Miami so I&#039;ll get some inside scoop. I won&#039;t be back till thursday stay tooned! Ha</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You make alot of sense. ( I actually talked to him before takeoff. Our grandmother is sick and he was asking about her) I wasn&#8217;t a braves fan before Chipper. Of course I am now. I&#8217;d still love to see him in Arlington or Az. YOu make sense with your reason but I don&#8217;t see it happening. I&#8217;m leaving tomorrow a.m. for Miami so I&#8217;ll get some inside scoop. I won&#8217;t be back till thursday stay tooned! Ha</p>
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		<title>By: Marc Schneider</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/06/braves-on-the-block/comment-page-1/#comment-53286</link>
		<dc:creator>Marc Schneider</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 29 Jun 2007 15:00:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/06/braves-on-the-block/#comment-53286</guid>
		<description>Hey Big D (Chipper&#039;s cousin), 

That&#039;s a pretty good trick talking to Chipper on the plane.  Did they waive the rule against cell phones during flight so you could talk to him?

I frankly think Chipper will be traded at one point or another.  He is still a great player when he plays, but that&#039;s not too often anymore.  I appreciate that he gave up some money to increase the Braves payroll flexibility but it&#039;s still a big contract and, unless Liberty increases the payroll, which I doubt, they need more room.  And while I don&#039;t want to give up on this season either, I don&#039;t see this a being a championship team as currently constructed.  They desparately need some pitching and while I think Davies still has significant upside, watching Verlander and Miller mow down the Braves the other night really shows the lack of power arms in the Braves system.  They aren&#039;t going to get anything for Andruw so Chipper is the only real asset they have.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hey Big D (Chipper&#8217;s cousin), </p>
<p>That&#8217;s a pretty good trick talking to Chipper on the plane.  Did they waive the rule against cell phones during flight so you could talk to him?</p>
<p>I frankly think Chipper will be traded at one point or another.  He is still a great player when he plays, but that&#8217;s not too often anymore.  I appreciate that he gave up some money to increase the Braves payroll flexibility but it&#8217;s still a big contract and, unless Liberty increases the payroll, which I doubt, they need more room.  And while I don&#8217;t want to give up on this season either, I don&#8217;t see this a being a championship team as currently constructed.  They desparately need some pitching and while I think Davies still has significant upside, watching Verlander and Miller mow down the Braves the other night really shows the lack of power arms in the Braves system.  They aren&#8217;t going to get anything for Andruw so Chipper is the only real asset they have.</p>
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		<title>By: Brent</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/06/braves-on-the-block/comment-page-1/#comment-53228</link>
		<dc:creator>Brent</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 28 Jun 2007 22:29:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/06/braves-on-the-block/#comment-53228</guid>
		<description>JC, it seems that my parenthetical note in comment #1 has turned into truth - readers do seem to think you&#039;ve jumped ship for the &#039;07 season, and I thought you made it clear that you had not at this point.  Still, I think it&#039;s obviously make or break time for Atlanta.

And as for Renteria&#039;s Hall of Fame case, it&#039;s true - his numbers put him in decent position to reach some of those magical career totals like 3000 hits.  Still, I&#039;ve seen what the chase for 3000 can do to a team.  The Astros are sending their 2nd best second baseman out there every night.  It hurts a team.  There are 26 members of the 3000 hit club.  In years in which those 26 guys got their 3000th hit, here are the winning %&#039;s:
Cap Anson, 1897, CHN - .447
Honus Wagner, 1914, PIT - .448
Nap Lajoie, 1914, CLE - .333
Ty Cobb, 1921, DET - .464
Tris Speaker, 1925, CLE - .455
Eddie Collins, 1925, CHA - .513
Paul Waner, 1942, BSN - .399
Stan Musial, 1958, STL - .468
Hank Aaron, 1970, ATL - .469
Willie Mays, 1970, SFG - .531
Roberto Clemente, 1972, PIT - .619
Al Kaline, 1974, DET - .444
Pete Rose, 1978, CIN - .571
Lou Brock, 1979, STL - .531
Carl Yastrzemski, 1979, BOS - .569
Rod Carew, 1985, CAL - .556
Robin Yount, 1992, MIL - .568
George Brett, 1992, KCR - .444
Dave Winfield, 1993, MIN - .438
Eddie Murray, 1995, CLE - .694
Paul Molitor, 1996, MIN - .481
Tony Gwynn, 1999, SDG - .457
Wade Boggs, 1999, TBY - .426
Cal Ripken, 2000, BAL - .457
Rickey Henderson, 2001, SDG - .488
Rafael Palmeiro, 2005, BAL - .457

Of those 26 teams that saw a 3000th hit, 17 had losing records.  Only 2 teams reached the playoffs, the 1972 Pirates and 1995 Indians.  I&#039;m sure there are a variety of factors in play here for each team, but 24 failures out of 26 has to mean something, right?  Get ready to make it 25 out of 27 very soon.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>JC, it seems that my parenthetical note in comment #1 has turned into truth &#8211; readers do seem to think you&#8217;ve jumped ship for the &#8217;07 season, and I thought you made it clear that you had not at this point.  Still, I think it&#8217;s obviously make or break time for Atlanta.</p>
<p>And as for Renteria&#8217;s Hall of Fame case, it&#8217;s true &#8211; his numbers put him in decent position to reach some of those magical career totals like 3000 hits.  Still, I&#8217;ve seen what the chase for 3000 can do to a team.  The Astros are sending their 2nd best second baseman out there every night.  It hurts a team.  There are 26 members of the 3000 hit club.  In years in which those 26 guys got their 3000th hit, here are the winning %&#8217;s:<br />
Cap Anson, 1897, CHN &#8211; .447<br />
Honus Wagner, 1914, PIT &#8211; .448<br />
Nap Lajoie, 1914, CLE &#8211; .333<br />
Ty Cobb, 1921, DET &#8211; .464<br />
Tris Speaker, 1925, CLE &#8211; .455<br />
Eddie Collins, 1925, CHA &#8211; .513<br />
Paul Waner, 1942, BSN &#8211; .399<br />
Stan Musial, 1958, STL &#8211; .468<br />
Hank Aaron, 1970, ATL &#8211; .469<br />
Willie Mays, 1970, SFG &#8211; .531<br />
Roberto Clemente, 1972, PIT &#8211; .619<br />
Al Kaline, 1974, DET &#8211; .444<br />
Pete Rose, 1978, CIN &#8211; .571<br />
Lou Brock, 1979, STL &#8211; .531<br />
Carl Yastrzemski, 1979, BOS &#8211; .569<br />
Rod Carew, 1985, CAL &#8211; .556<br />
Robin Yount, 1992, MIL &#8211; .568<br />
George Brett, 1992, KCR &#8211; .444<br />
Dave Winfield, 1993, MIN &#8211; .438<br />
Eddie Murray, 1995, CLE &#8211; .694<br />
Paul Molitor, 1996, MIN &#8211; .481<br />
Tony Gwynn, 1999, SDG &#8211; .457<br />
Wade Boggs, 1999, TBY &#8211; .426<br />
Cal Ripken, 2000, BAL &#8211; .457<br />
Rickey Henderson, 2001, SDG &#8211; .488<br />
Rafael Palmeiro, 2005, BAL &#8211; .457</p>
<p>Of those 26 teams that saw a 3000th hit, 17 had losing records.  Only 2 teams reached the playoffs, the 1972 Pirates and 1995 Indians.  I&#8217;m sure there are a variety of factors in play here for each team, but 24 failures out of 26 has to mean something, right?  Get ready to make it 25 out of 27 very soon.</p>
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		<title>By: Shaun</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/06/braves-on-the-block/comment-page-1/#comment-53223</link>
		<dc:creator>Shaun</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 28 Jun 2007 21:37:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/06/braves-on-the-block/#comment-53223</guid>
		<description>No way chipper gets traded.  Chipper is the heart of the Braves.  Plus his recent promise to play every game for the rest of the season make him even more valuable to us.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>No way chipper gets traded.  Chipper is the heart of the Braves.  Plus his recent promise to play every game for the rest of the season make him even more valuable to us.</p>
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		<title>By: Ron</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/06/braves-on-the-block/comment-page-1/#comment-53206</link>
		<dc:creator>Ron</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 28 Jun 2007 15:46:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/06/braves-on-the-block/#comment-53206</guid>
		<description>Probably true but they&#039;re not as good as San Diego, Arizona, Los Angeles, and New York are this year. The Braves need to trade for #3 or better starting pitcher to make a real push for the Eastern division or the wild card.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Probably true but they&#8217;re not as good as San Diego, Arizona, Los Angeles, and New York are this year. The Braves need to trade for #3 or better starting pitcher to make a real push for the Eastern division or the wild card.</p>
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		<title>By: Rob</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/06/braves-on-the-block/comment-page-1/#comment-53154</link>
		<dc:creator>Rob</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 28 Jun 2007 05:13:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/06/braves-on-the-block/#comment-53154</guid>
		<description>With all due respect I think you are way off base. I&#039;ll be the first to admit that at the moment this team doesn&#039;t inspire confidence but this is a good team. As evident the last three days, this team seems to be getting back on track. They looked ugly in June but they have also played the majority of those games against the top tier teams in the AL. They are by no means out of this race. Despite the love affair with the Mets they aren&#039;t that good of a team. They have just as many pitching issues as the Braves do.

Now, if they do fall out of contention I do think that Renteria, Wickman, and Hudson should be moved. I am not going to dispute your reliable witness but I will believe Chipper getting traded when I see it. He is the Atlanta Braves. Trading Chipper would almost be like the Yankees trading Jeter.

Truthfully, if the Braves are more than four games out at the All-Star break I would start trading guys off and looking ahead to next year. Escobar is a good player. Did you see the game tonight? He is the real deal as is Salty. Fact is, JS isn&#039;t trading anybody because he thinks this team can get to the postseason and I have to agree. When you think about the Cardinals, A&#039;s, and Padres making the postseason last year and the Astros the year before the Braves have a shot. This team is a good as those teams.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>With all due respect I think you are way off base. I&#8217;ll be the first to admit that at the moment this team doesn&#8217;t inspire confidence but this is a good team. As evident the last three days, this team seems to be getting back on track. They looked ugly in June but they have also played the majority of those games against the top tier teams in the AL. They are by no means out of this race. Despite the love affair with the Mets they aren&#8217;t that good of a team. They have just as many pitching issues as the Braves do.</p>
<p>Now, if they do fall out of contention I do think that Renteria, Wickman, and Hudson should be moved. I am not going to dispute your reliable witness but I will believe Chipper getting traded when I see it. He is the Atlanta Braves. Trading Chipper would almost be like the Yankees trading Jeter.</p>
<p>Truthfully, if the Braves are more than four games out at the All-Star break I would start trading guys off and looking ahead to next year. Escobar is a good player. Did you see the game tonight? He is the real deal as is Salty. Fact is, JS isn&#8217;t trading anybody because he thinks this team can get to the postseason and I have to agree. When you think about the Cardinals, A&#8217;s, and Padres making the postseason last year and the Astros the year before the Braves have a shot. This team is a good as those teams.</p>
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		<title>By: Big D</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/06/braves-on-the-block/comment-page-1/#comment-53153</link>
		<dc:creator>Big D</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 28 Jun 2007 04:42:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/06/braves-on-the-block/#comment-53153</guid>
		<description>Chipper will not accept any trades trust me! He&#039;s my cousin and I know we talked 15 minutes ago while he was on the plane to Florida. He did say that there is a &quot;Big Fish&quot; deal in the works but didn&#039;t say whether coming to Atlanta or going from Atlanta. Personally I think he would like Arlington or Dodger Blue but he says no way for now. Maybe if Smoltzie spouts off again huh</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Chipper will not accept any trades trust me! He&#8217;s my cousin and I know we talked 15 minutes ago while he was on the plane to Florida. He did say that there is a &#8220;Big Fish&#8221; deal in the works but didn&#8217;t say whether coming to Atlanta or going from Atlanta. Personally I think he would like Arlington or Dodger Blue but he says no way for now. Maybe if Smoltzie spouts off again huh</p>
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		<title>By: John Beamer</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/06/braves-on-the-block/comment-page-1/#comment-53119</link>
		<dc:creator>John Beamer</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Jun 2007 19:41:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/06/braves-on-the-block/#comment-53119</guid>
		<description>Toting up the odds the Braves are shifting 5 players!! That is a fire sale.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Toting up the odds the Braves are shifting 5 players!! That is a fire sale.</p>
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		<title>By: Jason</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/06/braves-on-the-block/comment-page-1/#comment-53112</link>
		<dc:creator>Jason</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Jun 2007 18:59:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/06/braves-on-the-block/#comment-53112</guid>
		<description>There&#039;s a guy on the Braves who is on track to have 3000 hits in his career.  He&#039;s won a World Series and played well each time he went to the Fall Classic.  He&#039;s been healthy in his career and may finish with 200 homers and 400 stolen bases.  As far as I know he&#039;s been no problem in the dugout.  Take a look at 
Player No. 4 at
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/im-with-stupid-again/
Who is this mystery potential Hall of Famer on the Braves?  Edgar Renteria.  

So do I think the Braves will trade him?  Of course the will.  Far far better to give the SS job to cheap young guy who may not be able to hit even .250 than to give to a guy who is on track right now for the Hall of Fame, is not ridiculously expensive, and is a proven winner.  Just like David Justice was traded, the Braves will foolishly trade Renteria, but I take some solace from the fact that Renteria will defintely go back to the World Series sooner than the Braves will.  

John Smoltz will NEVER get traded.  He won his World Series and while I&#039;m sure he&#039;d like to go back, it&#039;s a much bigger deal for him to finish his career with one team, especially if he goes to the Hall of Fame.  The chance of Smoltz being traded is 1%.  Actually it should probably be about 0.1% as things are going to have get pretty bad in Atlanta for him to be willing to give up the &quot;whole career for one team&quot; goal he has.  A lot worse than they are now.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There&#8217;s a guy on the Braves who is on track to have 3000 hits in his career.  He&#8217;s won a World Series and played well each time he went to the Fall Classic.  He&#8217;s been healthy in his career and may finish with 200 homers and 400 stolen bases.  As far as I know he&#8217;s been no problem in the dugout.  Take a look at<br />
Player No. 4 at<br />
<a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/im-with-stupid-again/" rel="nofollow">http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/im-with-stupid-again/</a><br />
Who is this mystery potential Hall of Famer on the Braves?  Edgar Renteria.  </p>
<p>So do I think the Braves will trade him?  Of course the will.  Far far better to give the SS job to cheap young guy who may not be able to hit even .250 than to give to a guy who is on track right now for the Hall of Fame, is not ridiculously expensive, and is a proven winner.  Just like David Justice was traded, the Braves will foolishly trade Renteria, but I take some solace from the fact that Renteria will defintely go back to the World Series sooner than the Braves will.  </p>
<p>John Smoltz will NEVER get traded.  He won his World Series and while I&#8217;m sure he&#8217;d like to go back, it&#8217;s a much bigger deal for him to finish his career with one team, especially if he goes to the Hall of Fame.  The chance of Smoltz being traded is 1%.  Actually it should probably be about 0.1% as things are going to have get pretty bad in Atlanta for him to be willing to give up the &#8220;whole career for one team&#8221; goal he has.  A lot worse than they are now.</p>
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