Comments on: Stark Responds about Andruw

By: Richard

Richard — Mon, 25 Jun 2007 02:10:19 +0000

Well, the controversy must be getting to him — Andruw, I mean, not Jayson Stark. He’s under the Mendoza line now, with an obp of .299 and slugging .381. He may well be in a serious decline phase.

On the defensive side, I looked up the Braves’ DERs for the past 10 years. Starting in 1998: .700, .700, .695, .692, .702, .712, .699, .688, .693, .686, .693 (this year). Four of the five best ones are in Andruw’s first five years. I don’t know enough to isolate each position, but those numbers do not weigh in Andruw’s favor. I wouldn’t want my team signing him to a significant contract.

By: Gibson Rules

Gibson Rules — Sat, 16 Jun 2007 13:52:14 +0000

Does anyone find it a little troubling that Stark needed a sabermatrician to figure out zone rating when its flaws are readily understandable with 5-grade math?

By: The Real Neal

The Real Neal — Sat, 16 Jun 2007 10:42:59 +0000

Jones still seems to be a good center fielder to me. Most published stats put him around average over the last few years.

The thing that makes Jones overated is that he was one of the best center fielders ever (certainly the best I have ever seen), and then he had that 50 HR season, so most people add together that player (the younger version who caught everything and the older delux power hitter who hit 92 HRs over the last two seasons) and think he’s a superstar. But he’s a good centerfielder and a low average slugger who gets respect walks. He’s not a super-star.

Did MGL ever add fielding priority to UZL?

By: Brent

Brent — Sat, 16 Jun 2007 06:57:55 +0000

Here’s why you shouldn’t worry about Andruw. First of all, strikeouts are no more detrimental than other outs, for the most part. Would you rather him ground into a double play than strike out? Let’s not get too worked up over something that doesn’t hurt the team that much more than any other out.

Second, Andruw’s BABIP is only .250 this year, down from .270 last year. He’s had a little bad luck in that the hits just haven’t dropped. Batting Average on Balls In Play has a tendency to work itself out, so odds are his batting average will rise as a result.

Third, it’s easy to get worked up over his 2000 season due to that pretty .303 average, but he’s not that different a ballplayer these days. In 2000, he had 78 extra base hits. The last two seasons he’s had 78 and 70, respectively. So a few doubles are turning into homers. No biggie. But where have the hits gone? They’re turning into walks, as Andruw’s plate discipline, believe it or not, has gotten much better. This year he’s walking in 12.8% of his plate appearances, up from 12.3% last year and 9.5% the previous year. So while it’s fun to have a nice batting average, what we need from Andruw is a solid on-base percentage and a good slugging percentage. You can hit .250 and help your team if you don’t rely on singles to create your value. Once Andruw’s BABIP gets back to normal, his OBP should be up around .350 again.

Fourth – As for his base stealing capabilities, that’s just a natural thing for a guy with Andruw’s size and skill set. Andruw got big a little earlier than most, but plenty of players stop stealing bases once they are veterans. Sammy Sosa and Chipper Jones, for example. It just happens when you get bigger and stronger. Also, I don’t think it hurt us that much. Andruw was never really a top-notch base stealer for us.

So really, I don’t think they’re downfalls at all. Most important of all, I don’t think two months is a big enough sample size for us to start forgetting all the great strides he’s made over the last two seasons.

By: kc

kc — Sat, 16 Jun 2007 03:34:29 +0000

Great work JC. I know watching Andruw day-to-day that Stark’s claim is not true.

Chris, the argument here is not on Andruw’s offense.

By: Chris

Chris — Fri, 15 Jun 2007 22:47:51 +0000

I agree that the zone rating may not be the most reliable stat to say someone is overrated, but this isn’t the only reason that Jones could be considered for this and not the only thing showing him declining. His homeruns and rbis can be viewed as impressive, but the amount his strikes out is also detrimental to his team and he’s becoming more and more like an Adam Dunn type player (I mean come on 65 strikeouts in 66 games this season is a joke). Now you can say well he’s hitting homeruns when he tries to swing for the fences, but that apparently isn’t working very well because he’s got a .215 average this season and hasn’t hit near .300 since his 2000 campaign. This also happened to be the last year he stole 20 bases. Now if none of these seems like downfalls to his game you can prove me wrong or tell give me an explanation, but there is no doubt in my mind that he is not the same player that he used to be.

By: tangotiger

tangotiger — Fri, 15 Jun 2007 21:45:22 +0000

I agree with JC that the problems with ZR is STATS’s implementation (extra counting of plays outside the zone in the denominator).

MGL’s UZR has Andruw as roughly average from 2003-2007, though he rated fantastic in his career prior to that.

By: rob

rob — Fri, 15 Jun 2007 17:49:51 +0000

jc — nice retort to stark. i’ve heard him do several radio shows and was surprised with his explanations as it seems he only did *some* homework, not all the homework required.