Comments on: How Long in the Oven? http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/07/how-long-in-the-oven/ Economic Thinking about Baseball Sun, 09 Jan 2011 17:16:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Andrew http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/07/how-long-in-the-oven/comment-page-1/#comment-55348 Andrew Mon, 23 Jul 2007 02:32:03 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/07/how-long-in-the-oven/#comment-55348 I think Davies may have been slightly rushed, but not by more than half of a year. In 2004, Davies proved he had nothing left to do in A+ or AA with great K/BB ratios and K/IP. Francoeur is another story. I think it is quite unfortunate that he had so much early success. If he would have just struggled or had MLB teams had good advanced scouting, Jeff would've played just like he has now and then would have been sent back to AAA and likely started 2006 there as well. I think something else that may be a problem is the drafting of the hometown kids. Yes, Davies, McCann, Francoeur, etc were great in high school and well scouted by the Braves. But what happens when they struggle? It's damn near impossible to do the right thing for their careers' developments because too many people are dying to see them, and once they are in Atlanta, it takes a beyond horrible performance to justify sending them back to the minors. C'est la vie I suppose. I think Davies may have been slightly rushed, but not by more than half of a year. In 2004, Davies proved he had nothing left to do in A+ or AA with great K/BB ratios and K/IP.

Francoeur is another story. I think it is quite unfortunate that he had so much early success. If he would have just struggled or had MLB teams had good advanced scouting, Jeff would’ve played just like he has now and then would have been sent back to AAA and likely started 2006 there as well.

I think something else that may be a problem is the drafting of the hometown kids. Yes, Davies, McCann, Francoeur, etc were great in high school and well scouted by the Braves. But what happens when they struggle? It’s damn near impossible to do the right thing for their careers’ developments because too many people are dying to see them, and once they are in Atlanta, it takes a beyond horrible performance to justify sending them back to the minors. C’est la vie I suppose.

]]> By: Ron http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/07/how-long-in-the-oven/comment-page-1/#comment-55155 Ron Fri, 20 Jul 2007 13:21:09 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/07/how-long-in-the-oven/#comment-55155 I'm hopeful this is a 3 year process of improvemtn that will result in Francoeur becoming the player we all hoped he could be in 2005 next year. Last year he hit homeruns and didn't do much else well. This year he's making decent contact and taking more walks. And finally (one hopes) next year he'll put it all together and have 30+ homeruns, 100 rbi, and a .330+ OBP. I’m hopeful this is a 3 year process of improvemtn that will result in Francoeur becoming the player we all hoped he could be in 2005 next year. Last year he hit homeruns and didn’t do much else well. This year he’s making decent contact and taking more walks. And finally (one hopes) next year he’ll put it all together and have 30+ homeruns, 100 rbi, and a .330+ OBP.

]]> By: Marc Schneider http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/07/how-long-in-the-oven/comment-page-1/#comment-55074 Marc Schneider Thu, 19 Jul 2007 16:08:44 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/07/how-long-in-the-oven/#comment-55074 I agree with the above comment. Even when Francoeur gets a big hit, I always get the feeling that it is more luck or bad pitching than anything else. He never seems to have a clue at the plate. And his lack of power this year is disturbing. If you are hitting fifth or sixth and playing corner outfield, you really need to hit some home runs. But as long as he drives in a lot of runs and looks athletic, he will be praised as a great player and consistently overrated. My feeling is he is a great athlete but maybe he would have been a better football player. He has improved some this year, but I question what his overall upside is. I agree with the above comment. Even when Francoeur gets a big hit, I always get the feeling that it is more luck or bad pitching than anything else. He never seems to have a clue at the plate. And his lack of power this year is disturbing. If you are hitting fifth or sixth and playing corner outfield, you really need to hit some home runs. But as long as he drives in a lot of runs and looks athletic, he will be praised as a great player and consistently overrated. My feeling is he is a great athlete but maybe he would have been a better football player.

He has improved some this year, but I question what his overall upside is.

]]> By: JPWF http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/07/how-long-in-the-oven/comment-page-1/#comment-54990 JPWF Wed, 18 Jul 2007 18:08:55 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/07/how-long-in-the-oven/#comment-54990 Francoeur is slowly improving, but now after 1275 MLB at bats he has an OPS+ of 99, which quite frankly is poor for a corner OF. He had 29 HR last year but "only" 59 in 654 at bats, not a superlative number. His XBH rate this year is close (31 in 367 ab) but many of the home runs and triples have turned into doubles. He is a career .275/.312/.462 hitter, BUT .305/.349/.514 with runners on and .330/.377/.528 with RISP. His splits are extraordinarily extreme- ordinarily such splits in the end turn into sample size flukes- but in this case I suspect that 2 things are going on 1: His approach with no one on base is bad (career: .253/.282/.423); and 2: Pitchers throw differently with men on than with no one on- and for whatever reason that benefits Francoeur. I watch about 15-20 Braves games a year on TV, and honestly I've never seen him have a good at bat (I've seen him homer- but still I've never seen him have what I'd call a good at bat)- his increase in walks appears to me to be related simply to him taking more pitches and fouling off more rather than putting balls in play, rather than improved pitch identification- I still see him take strikes and swing at really awful balls. Francoeur is slowly improving, but now after 1275 MLB at bats he has an OPS+ of 99, which quite frankly is poor for a corner OF.

He had 29 HR last year but “only” 59 in 654 at bats, not a superlative number. His XBH rate this year is close (31 in 367 ab) but many of the home runs and triples have turned into doubles.

He is a career .275/.312/.462 hitter, BUT .305/.349/.514 with runners on and .330/.377/.528 with RISP.
His splits are extraordinarily extreme- ordinarily such splits in the end turn into sample size flukes- but in this case I suspect that 2 things are going on
1: His approach with no one on base is bad (career: .253/.282/.423); and
2: Pitchers throw differently with men on than with no one on- and for whatever reason that benefits Francoeur.

I watch about 15-20 Braves games a year on TV, and honestly I’ve never seen him have a good at bat (I’ve seen him homer- but still I’ve never seen him have what I’d call a good at bat)- his increase in walks appears to me to be related simply to him taking more pitches and fouling off more rather than putting balls in play, rather than improved pitch identification- I still see him take strikes and swing at really awful balls.

]]> By: Ron http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/07/how-long-in-the-oven/comment-page-1/#comment-54965 Ron Wed, 18 Jul 2007 14:10:00 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/07/how-long-in-the-oven/#comment-54965 Davies was called up and has remained up because of the many injuries to the starting pitching staff the last 3 years. But he's clearly reached the end of his rope and needs to go back down or be traded. He is killing the big league club. You're too negative on Francoeur. He almost has as many walks this year as he did all of last year. His OBP is a mediocre .327 instead of last year's horrific .293. I agree with your overall point that Jeff would have been better off learning plate discipline with a couple years in Richmond, but he is showing signs of improvement. Davies was called up and has remained up because of the many injuries to the starting pitching staff the last 3 years. But he’s clearly reached the end of his rope and needs to go back down or be traded. He is killing the big league club.

You’re too negative on Francoeur. He almost has as many walks this year as he did all of last year. His OBP is a mediocre .327 instead of last year’s horrific .293. I agree with your overall point that Jeff would have been better off learning plate discipline with a couple years in Richmond, but he is showing signs of improvement.

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