What Will A-Rod Get?

That was the question that Anthony McCarron of the NY Daily News asked me. Here is what I said.

J.C. Bradbury, a professor at Kennesaw State University and the author of “The Baseball Economist”, said an average annual value of $30 million “isn’t unreasonable.”

“I don’t envision him breaking $40 million, but somewhere in the mid-30s is probably his ceiling,” Bradbury said.

Where did that number come from? Using the method that I detail in The Baseball Economist (along with a modification to include defensive value), I calculated A-Rod’s potential contributions to team revenue over the next few years—as league salaries rise and his skills decline with age. In the end, I concluded that a five-year, $175 million contract ($35 million per season) was about right. I guess we’ll have to wait until the offseason to see what happens.

6 Responses “What Will A-Rod Get?”

  1. Chad McEvoy says:

    Hi JC,

    It wouldn’t surprise me if A-Rod and Scott Boras go for a longer term like 6-7 years. Put me down for 6 years, $200 million.


  2. Andrew says:

    Did your defensive calculations greatly improve A-Rod’s value? I know it’s complicated but if A-Rod went to the Cubs and played SS, how much would that effect his value?

  3. JC says:

    The defensive correction is a rough one, and I’m not even sold on my method yet. I estimate his defense adds between $5-7 million dollars a year. It is my hope to get hold of some newer BIS data to play around with valuing defense.

  4. kevin says:

    I don’t see it on a supply/demand basis and I don’t see it on relative value basis. The number of teams which have the capacity and need to sign Arod is limited. That’s before emotional issues are considered.

    Neither NY team would bid (which reduces the pressure on Boston). Pretty sure he doesn’t end up in Texas. Do the Cubs open the vault (again) hoping he can play shortstop again.

    You end up with few options and getting teams to bid against themselves, again, will be harder for an older A-Rod. Expecting A-Rod to get what Ramirez and Soriano got (combined) seems a bit much. But then again, I never would have assumed Marquis getting $21 MM over three years, Ted Lilly getting $10 MM per, Gil Meche, etc etc.

    Most interesting possible location – Philly. Howard, Rollins, Utely, A-Rod not a bad start.

  5. tangotiger says:

    The most interesting aspect is that the Yankees have 27 million dollars of Texas Rangers money, if ARod keeps his current contract, and simply negotiates an extension. If he walks away from this contract, the Rangers money goes away, and the Yankees will be bidding with the Angels on an even keel. Click on my name for an extensive discussion on this (post 36).

  6. Ron says:

    There’s a very limited number of teams that are willing or able to spend that kind of money on one player and need a shortstop or third baseman. The Mets are set at those positions. Unless they want to move David Wright or Arod to first or trade Wright or Reyes, it seems unlikely they’d be in the bidding.

    If the Yankees miss the playoffs and Cashman and Torre are fired, it’s not clear that the new management team would want to spend $35 million on a player who is perceived as not getting the job done for New York when it counted most.

    Boston clearly would be a candidate. I hear the Angels mentioned a lot on ESPN but I don’t get the impression that they are a club with that kind of money to burn or even if they do have the resources, they have a tendency not to spend it.

    If the Cubs get bought by Mark Cuban, they would be a strong possibility. Otherwise it’s not clear whether they’d have the money to spend on A-rod after last year’s free agent binge.