That was the question that Anthony McCarron of the NY Daily News asked me. Here is what I said.
J.C. Bradbury, a professor at Kennesaw State University and the author of “The Baseball Economist”, said an average annual value of $30 million “isn’t unreasonable.”
“I don’t envision him breaking $40 million, but somewhere in the mid-30s is probably his ceiling,” Bradbury said.
Where did that number come from? Using the method that I detail in The Baseball Economist (along with a modification to include defensive value), I calculated A-Rod’s potential contributions to team revenue over the next few years—as league salaries rise and his skills decline with age. In the end, I concluded that a five-year, $175 million contract ($35 million per season) was about right. I guess we’ll have to wait until the offseason to see what happens.