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October 23rd, 2007

What Will A-Rod Get?

The Yankees have ten days beyond the World Series to sign Alex Rodriguez to an extension, so there is a decent chance that this will get settled very soon. (I think that the Yankees and A-Rod will part ways, but I will not be surprised if he stays.) So, I thought it would be a good time to go ahead and make a prediction as to what he will get. And I invite you to do so as well in the comments.

I’ve run a few numbers based on his performance over the past few seasons, his expected aging decline, and the anticipated rise in revenues over the course of the contract.

My prediction: 7 years, $244 million; approximately $34.8 million/year.

What do you think? The person who gets the closest wins a signed copy of The Baseball Economist. If you want to brand it with an asterisk, I don’t care, you can do so upon delivery. :-)

Contracts can vary along a few variables;therefore, determining who is “the closest” is a bit difficult. All predictions must include a contract length, total value, and approximate annual value, but I will decide the winner based on the per-year prediction. Ties (or near-ties) in per-year predictions will then be broken by length and total value of the contract predictions.

Addendum: Predictions are for 2008 and beyond. If he signs an extension with the Yankees, the total value will be the sum of the rest of his original contract plus the additional compensation he receives with an extension. The annual salary will be this sum divided by seasons after 2007.

Further Addendum: Please, do not include commentary in your prediction. It slows down the moderation.

Even Further Addendum: Remember, let’s keep this simple. No team options, no backloading, no “plus incentives”, etc. Three numbers based on the dollars guaranteed to A-Rod if he signs the deal.

UPDATE: Do not e-mail your submissions to me. You must submit your entry in the comments. Your entry may not show up immediately, because I have to moderate the comments but they will show up eventually. Also, PLEASE no commentary; submit three numbers and that is it.

Posted by JC in Contests, General, Moneyball

This entry was posted on Tuesday, October 23rd, 2007 at 8:43 am and is filed under Contests, General, Moneyball. You can follow any responses to this entry through the comments RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

389 Responses to “What Will A-Rod Get?”

  1. David says:

    I’ll go with 7 years, $252 million; approximately $36.0 million per year.

  2. Trent McBride says:

    10 years, 300 million, 30 mil per year.

  3. Brian from Mississippi says:

    I’ll go with 7 years, $231 million; $33.0 million per year.

  4. Stu says:

    8 years, $244 million, $30.5 million per year.

  5. Edward says:

    6 years, $190 million, $31.7/yr

  6. DK says:

    10 years, $310MM. $31MM per year.

  7. John C. says:

    8 years, $250 million, $31.25 million per year

  8. Jason says:

    8 years, $240 million, $30 per year.

  9. Andrew says:

    8 years, $256 million, $32 million per year

  10. Sean says:

    8 years, $260 million; approximately $32.5 million per year.

  11. Nate says:

    6 Years, $208.2 million = $34.7 million/year

  12. jbizzle says:

    10 years, $280M, $28M/year

  13. Tom says:

    8 Yr, 240 Million

  14. G. says:

    8 years, $281 million; ~$35.125m annually

  15. Shaun says:

    10 years, 285 million, 28.5m/yr

  16. Cver says:

    11 years, 340 million; approximately 30.9 million per year.

  17. Aron says:

    9 years, 300 million.

  18. Gordon says:

    If he re-signs with the Yankees, will you count the remaining years of his current contract or only the terms of the extension?

  19. wellington says:

    8 Years, 252 Million

  20. Kevin from NY says:

    I say 7 years $224 mil - $32 mil per year

  21. John W says:

    7 years, $221.2 million, $31.6M/yr

  22. Daryl says:

    9 years, $288 Million.

  23. The Squid says:

    7 yr $229.5 Million, or $32.79 Million per year

    but with incentives that I’m sure will be included on top of the above

  24. Mike R says:

    8 years, $283 million, $35.375M/yr

  25. gbaked says:

    6 years, 348.9 million

  26. Seth says:

    8 years, $228 million, 28.5 M/year

  27. Justin Lavinsky says:

    8 years 231 million.

  28. Gary R says:

    6 years, 192 million, 32 million/year

  29. isonize says:

    3 years, $111 million, $37M/yr

  30. Blastings! Thrilledge says:

    8 years, 270 million: $33.75MM/yr

  31. Phil says:

    8 years $288 -$36.0 mil per yr

  32. Mike R says:

    8 years, $260,000,000.00, 32.5/year

  33. Eric Mathews says:

    7 years 236 million, 33.7/year

  34. George says:

    8 years / $208 million / $26 million per year

  35. Raji says:

    8 years/$280 million/$35 million per year

  36. Geoff Young says:

    8 years, $259.1 million; approximately $32.4 million/year

  37. Joe says:

    7 years / $217 million / $31 million per year

  38. Ryan Marpman says:

    8 years/250 million

  39. Tim Dierkes says:

    9 years / $305 million / $33.9 million per year

  40. Nathan says:

    8 years / 268 million

    33.5 annually

  41. Nathan Weinberg says:

    5 years, $190 million, $38 million per year.

  42. Brian says:

    10 years 360 million

  43. Jason Schmitz says:

    0 Years he’ll stay with his current contact untill next season.

  44. Mike says:

    My guess will be 7 years @ 28.5 million per year

  45. Justin Zeth says:

    8 years, $255 million; $31.875 million per year.

  46. Jim Delaney says:

    10 Years 335 Million (33.5 per year)

  47. Doug Kaplan says:

    10 years, 330 mil… backloaded

  48. Jeff says:

    8 years/280 million $35 mill per year

  49. David Wilson says:

    12 years /400 million

  50. Matt says:

    10 years/$350 mil/$35 million per year

  51. Don Ford says:

    10 Years 315 Mil, 31.5 Mil a year

  52. John Spence says:

    9 years, $323 million, roughly $35.9/yr

  53. Hizouse says:

    8 yrs, $244M, $30.5M/yr

  54. Chris D says:

    7 Years $227,500,000 ($32.5 a year)

  55. Joe F says:

    8 years / 272 million / 34 million per year

  56. Andrew says:

    8 years, $260 million; approximately $32.5 million/year.

  57. chris says:

    10 years 313 million, with the final two years of the contract being player options

  58. David G. says:

    10 years, 301 million, 30.1 million per year

  59. ADeck says:

    10 years / $318 million / $31.8 million per year

  60. Eric J Distenfeld says:

    8 years, $320 million

  61. JMan says:

    8 years/216 Million; 27M per year.

  62. Martin says:

    7 years/ $240 million / $35 million/year

  63. Brian says:

    Will not opt-out, sign an extension with the Yankees for 6 years $190 Million/ $31.67 Million per year

  64. eric says:

    10/300 million

  65. Ryan G says:

    11 years, $363 million/ 33 mil per year

  66. andrew says:

    7 years 228.2 million, 32.6 per

  67. Ray Mencio says:

    8 years, $264.8 million

  68. Jeremie says:

    11years/$425 million/$38.6 per year

  69. Matt K says:

    I’m going lowball…

    8 years, 203 million

  70. Eric Garcia says:

    I would say 7 years/$259 million/ $37 million per year

  71. Joel W says:

    9 years, $315 million

  72. Vin says:

    10 years, $322,000,000 (its looks even more ridiculous when you write it out)

  73. Blue says:

    Six years/ $216M / $35M a year

  74. Lupo the Wolf says:

    6 years / 132 million / 22 mil per year

  75. Josh says:

    8 years/224 million; 28 million/year

  76. P.J. says:

    10 years/325M — 32.5 per.

  77. Zubin says:

    9 years, $279MM…$31 per year.

  78. Derek says:

    4 years / 140 million

  79. Joel says:

    11 yrs / 357.5 million (32.5 mill yr)

  80. Jay says:

    8 years, $327 million, 40.875/yr from the yankees

  81. John G says:

    10 years/$280 mil

  82. Jeff says:

    4 years, $144, $36 million/year

  83. JB says:

    8 years / 245MM / 30.625MM per year

  84. Michael says:

    7 years, $196 million, $28 million a year

  85. Joe says:

    9 years/ $301.5 million/ $33.5 a year

  86. Kevin says:

    sorry, I misread the rules:

    6 years, 195 million, 32.5 per year

  87. Josh Culling says:

    9 years, $279 million; $31 million per year

  88. JimBeau says:

    3 years/$101 million/$33.67 million per year

  89. Jason Davis says:

    10 years, 310 million, 31 million a year.

  90. Daniel says:

    6 years, $186 million, ($31 mil/yr)

  91. James says:

    8 years/ $237.6 million/ $29.7 million per year

  92. Michael says:

    7 years $227 million - $32.45 per year

  93. Ceetar says:

    8 years, $241 million.

  94. Sean says:

    11 Years/$342 Million/$31.1 Million Per Year

  95. Thomas says:

    8 years, 266 million (averages just over 33 million a year)

  96. Sean Hammer says:

    8 years 228, 28.5 per year.

  97. Colin says:

    6 years / $168m, $28m per year

  98. Will says:

    10 years $292 million

  99. Rick says:

    7 years, $119 million. About $17 million annually.

  100. Martin says:

    7 years/$203 million - $29 per year

  101. Mike F. says:

    6 years, 228 million, 36.7 per year.

  102. Brian McGarvey says:

    8 years / $209,040,105.04 Total

    $26,130,013.13 per year

  103. Thom Hicks says:

    6 years 180,000,000.00, 30.0 per year

  104. Matt says:

    5 years, 200 million, 40 million per year

  105. Evan says:

    7 years 251 million (35.8 per yr)

  106. mnsota says:

    13 years 390 mil 30/mil per year

  107. DBS says:

    9 years / $271 Million

  108. Jon P says:

    8 years, 220 million 27.5 million a year

  109. Lindy says:

    I’ll go with $283.5M over 9 years or $31.5M per.

  110. Mikey says:

    8 years, 308mil. 38.5mil/yr.

  111. Troy says:

    9 years/$283 million (approx. $31.4 mil/year)

  112. Cody says:

    8 years/285.6 million/35.7 million per year

  113. Michael Lott says:

    $28,250,000 per year for 10 years
    total salary - $282,500,000

  114. Walt Davis says:

    8/$225

  115. hal says:

    8yrs / 230 million

  116. Red says:

    9 years for $288 million
    avg. yearly salary = $32 million

  117. Jon says:

    8 years for $252M; $31.5M per year

  118. Mike says:

    10 years 297.5 million
    29.75 million a year

  119. Andrew Stebbins says:

    8 Years / $255,000,000 / $31,785,000 per year.

  120. Adam S says:

    I think it will be a 6 Year Extension worth 192 Million (32 a year)

  121. Andrew Lozeau says:

    7 years at 27 million a year which equals 189 million

  122. Ben Theodore says:

    9 years, $297 million ($33 mil per year)

  123. Ross Hansen says:

    8 years, 39 MM/year 312 MM Total

  124. Ivan Perez says:

    12 years, $360 million years (30 mil per year)

  125. Andy says:

    10 years, $200 million

  126. Brian Tollini says:

    7 years, 210 million (30 mil a year)

  127. bwhitt says:

    8 years / $262 million / $32.75 million per year

  128. Bert says:

    7 years, $273 mil, $39 mil/yr.

  129. Jeff J says:

    8 years, $288 million ($26.25 mil per year)

  130. BJ says:

    7 years / $25m / $175 total

  131. Billy D says:

    8 years, 239.2 Mil., 29.9 Mil/Year

  132. James says:

    10 years / $275 million / $27.5 million per year

  133. Josh says:

    Contract extension of 7 years, $196.13 million guaranteed.

  134. Joe says:

    8 years, $265 million, $33.1 mil/yr.

  135. Steven says:

    7/200mil

  136. sylvain franchi says:

    A-Rod will sign 5yrs @ 205 million contract
    41 million per year - I think he will be a Brewer

  137. bbirgy says:

    12 years, 401 million

  138. Dave says:

    5 years, $25 million

  139. Seamus W says:

    9 years, $253 million, $28.11mil/year

  140. Brian Angaron says:

    10 years/ 312 million.. $31.2 mill per year..
    Will be with Chicago White Sox..

  141. George Mason says:

    6 years/174mill 29 a year

  142. Blake Holland says:

    My prediction: 6 years, $234 million; approximately $39 million/year

  143. Joe Z says:

    8 years/272 million

    34 mil per

  144. nick says:

    7 years 214 million

  145. David Lucibello says:

    8 years/ 290 million

  146. Ben says:

    9 years, $292 million

  147. Orlando Marin says:

    12 years $366 Million @ $30.5 a year

  148. Hoagey says:

    9 years, $288 million, about $32 million/year.

  149. Jon N. says:

    First guess with,

    8 Years, $275 million

  150. PigPen Wilson says:

    I dont’ want him, but I’ll say 9 years, 330 mil

    36.6 per

  151. Jon S. says:

    8 years, $275 Million. approx $34.3 million per.

  152. Pete Giangrande says:

    11 years 339 mil. $30 mil/year

  153. Michael C. says:

    10 years, $400 million. $40 million per season

  154. John P. says:

    10 years, $295 mil.

  155. Kenneth Chiu says:

    10 years, $320 million; approximately $32 million/year

  156. Doug G says:

    10/$300M

  157. Dennis says:

    10 years, 313 million, 31.3 mil a year

  158. Adam says:

    10 years, $343M

  159. Eric Plath says:

    I’m guessing that A-Rod will sign for 9 years/ $292.5.

  160. mike vick says:

    10 years, $412 million.
    41.2 a year

  161. Jake says:

    10 years, $310 million. 31/year

  162. Phil says:

    11 years, $370 million, or $33.64 Million per season.

    A bargain.

  163. Joel L. says:

    8 years, $253 million, $31,625 million per year

  164. TonyF says:

    I’ll go with 8 years, $288 million, average of $36 million/yr.

  165. Michael Mayfield says:

    8 years,252 million, 31.5 mil per year

  166. Mick says:

    12 year / $390 mil / $32.5 annually

  167. Ryan says:

    7 yrs./260 mil

  168. Jason F says:

    Let’s go with 9 years/261 million ($29 mil per). To play 2B for the Mets ;)

  169. KB says:

    8 year @ 250.5 mil
    (31,313,131.13 per)

  170. Jesse C. says:

    8 yrs./$250.4 M at $31.3 M per year

  171. Jeff says:

    Signs 5 year extension with NYY. Bringing total to 8 years / $250 = $32MM/year

  172. KevinH says:

    7 years, $208 mil, $29.7 mil/year

  173. edwin says:

    ill go with 8 years 350 million and the average is 43 million/yr.

  174. Dave Wesoloski says:

    8 years $252 million, $31.5/year

  175. David says:

    12 years 390 million 32.5/yr

  176. Billy C says:

    5 years, $150 million; $30.0 million/year

  177. adam says:

    10 year 320 milion

  178. Tom B says:

    11 years/$371 million

  179. Jim says:

    8 years, $224M - 28M per.

  180. Eddie says:

    8 years $200 million.

  181. Damien says:

    9 years 315MM

  182. Todd says:

    1 year/$33 million

  183. Patrick says:

    8 years, $306 million

  184. Sanford J. says:

    13 years - $500 million - $38.5 mil per year

  185. Kevin says:

    9 years @ $297 million $33 million/yr.

  186. Noah says:

    6 Years. $180 million; $30 million a year.

  187. Amade Adoodoo says:

    7 years @ 250 million

  188. Anthony says:

    7 years, 224million = 32million per year.

  189. Nathan says:

    7 years, 212 million and around 35 per year

  190. Trev says:

    So 8 years, $280 million, $35M/yr,

  191. Andrew says:

    10 years, 280 million

  192. RonP says:

    8 years 252 million = 31.5 million/year

  193. Ben says:

    8 years, $229 million

  194. Jake says:

    my guess will be $31.13 million dollars per year over 8 years.

  195. Adam says:

    10 years, $325 million

  196. mraver says:

    8 years at $34.1M per for about $272.8 total.

  197. A.J. says:

    9 years, $304 million

  198. Rick says:

    9 Years, $270M

  199. Anthony says:

    8 years, 263.5million, 32.9mill a year

  200. Hayden says:

    9 Years, $306 million

  201. James says:

    10 years, $342.3M, approximately $34.2M/year

  202. Agustin Rexach says:

    26 million 9 years

    234million

  203. Jason says:

    10 years @ 31.5 million a year making it 315 million

  204. Tom says:

    9 years, 504 million.

  205. Brian says:

    6 years and $195 million

  206. Andrew says:

    10 years $315,000,000. 31.5 Million per year.

  207. Matt says:

    7 years, $204 mil, $29.14/yr

  208. David says:

    10 years, $311MM total @ $31.1MM/yr

  209. Tom says:

    9 years, 504 Million = 56 / yr.

    Sorry I forgot to include the “per year” in post 184.

  210. dan c says:

    10 years, 315 million, 31.5 million a year

  211. Adam says:

    My prediction: 8 years, $275 million; $34.375 million/year

  212. Shane says:

    8 years, $267 MM; $33.3 MM/yr

  213. Steve says:

    9 years/272 million

  214. Paul says:

    8 years, $272 million- 34 mil/yr

  215. angelfan3 says:

    7 years 210 million

  216. Tony says:

    7 years, 258 mil, approx. 36.8/yr

  217. ben says:

    8 years, $307.5 million. approx 38.48 million per

  218. dan says:

    8 years, $235m, ~$29.4m/yr

  219. tank222 says:

    12 years, $357 million. ($29.75 million a year)

  220. andrew says:

    9 years, $270 million dollars.

  221. Antonio says:

    8 years, $270 million; 33.75 million/year

  222. Robin says:

    7 years, $221.55 (=$31.65/y)

  223. Kevin says:

    12 years, $395M …$33 million/year

  224. Lance says:

    7 years 225.5 million (32.2 million per yr)

  225. Joseph from MS says:

    How about 9 years @ 30.5 Mill Per Season for 274.5 Million Total

  226. Ethan says:

    7 years - $220.5 mil (31.5 per)

  227. Tom says:

    Signs 7 year extension at 34.1 mill/year, bringing value to 10 year/319.7 million total

  228. Jeff says:

    11yrs 378 million 34.4per year

  229. Dennis says:

    8 years, $271 million

  230. Milt says:

    8 years, 225 milliom, 28.125 per year

  231. Hilton says:

    11 years 380 million

  232. Tom says:

    8 years, $211 million

    26.4M per

  233. Tim says:

    42m per year

    11 years for a total 462million

    ;)

  234. Vince N. says:

    5 year 25 million. Devil Rays, baby!!!

  235. Joanie says:

    9 years $288 million $32 million per year

  236. Peter says:

    8 years, $256, $32/yr, extension NYY.

  237. gorms says:

    7 years $199.5 million 28.5

  238. Russell says:

    8 year extention, 11 years total, $380 million total, 34,545,455 average per year

  239. Dustin says:

    8 Years / $211.5M / $26.44M per year

  240. R.J. says:

    My prediction: 8 years, $236.3 million; approximately $29.54 million/year.

  241. Tim says:

    8 years 260MM/ 32.5MM/ year

  242. Frankie says:

    8 years 285 mil 35.6m/year

  243. Steve says:

    9 Years 283.5MM 31.5MM/Year Option for 10th Year

  244. Ted says:

    3 years. $100MM total. $33.3MM/year.

  245. Steve says:

    7 years, $189M - $27M/year

  246. Dan says:

    7 years, $215 million; $30.71 per year

  247. Nick says:

    7 years/$238 million

  248. kkreider13 says:

    10 years/328 Million; 32.8 Million/year

  249. yogi buck says:

    7 yrs - $191 mil. $28.714 mil per season (Yanks extend)

  250. Oscar M. says:

    7 years @ 26.5 million per year - 185.5MM

  251. Mike L says:

    12 years, 396 million- Red Sox

  252. Tommy Mahesh says:

    8 years/ 268 mil/ 33.5 mil a year with a club option for next year.

  253. Tommy Mahesh says:

    8 years/ 268 mil/ 33.5 mil per year

  254. James F says:

    7 years, $224 million, $32m per

  255. Layne G says:

    7 years 150MM/21.4 a year

  256. Lawrence Robson says:

    12 years 480 million 40 million a year

  257. Dave B says:

    9 years, $298M or $33.11M a year.

  258. Jaime Quinones says:

    8 yrs, 288 million , 32.6 mil a yr.

  259. paul k says:

    8yrs 280 million

  260. George Herman Ruth says:

    Yankees extend 7 years. Total contract value: $350MM over 10 years.

  261. Christian says:

    8 years, $235mil ($29.375mil annual avg value)

  262. Mike R. (The Original) says:

    6 year 192 million extension

  263. Adam K says:

    10 years, $290 million, $29 million per year.

  264. Jesse says:

    10 years, 250 million, 25 million per year

  265. Bryan says:

    10 yrs $275 mil. (27.5/yr)

  266. Mike says:

    a nice 8 years, $248 million, $31 Mil per year

  267. yankeesSUCK says:

    7 years, $218 million, about $31 million a year.

  268. Patrick Houston says:

    8 yrs / 244 million / 30.5 milion per yr

  269. Grayson says:

    7 years. Total Contract: $241.5 million: 34.5 million per year

  270. Paul says:

    29 at 9 years 261 if it’s not taken.

  271. Joe Nier says:

    8 years 314 million

  272. Rich says:

    12 years for 386.4 million; approximately 32.2 million a year

  273. Richard says:

    7 years, 212 million, 30.3 million

  274. Aaron says:

    7 Years 200 Million

  275. wstu says:

    5 years, 160 million, 32 mil per year.

  276. VCarver says:

    7 years, 193 million, 27.57 mill/year

    (includes remaining 3 years plus 4-year extension with Yankees)

  277. Mike M. says:

    5 years, 160 million; 32 million/year

  278. Harrison219 says:

    8 yrs, $285 million, $35.625 million per year

  279. Ben T says:

    290 million for 8 years. $36.25 million per year

  280. Brady says:

    5 years, $150 million, $30 mil per year

  281. Koby P says:

    8 years, 264 million, $33 million/year.

  282. hilarie says:

    7 yrs, $262.5M, $37.5M/yr

  283. George says:

    10 years….275 Million

  284. Sal Paradise says:

    4 years, 152 million, 38 million/year

  285. Mark says:

    9 Year - 281 Million - 31.22 Mil/Year

  286. Bill says:

    My guess is 282M for 8 years. 35.25M per year.

  287. Mike says:

    15 years/550 million/ approx 37 mil per

  288. deaconbain says:

    8 years 320 million 1st 40 million a year player

  289. 2nd Gen says:

    10 Years. 310 total. 31 mil per year average.

  290. Jacob Burch says:

    ten years, 312 mil (31.1ish mil average)

  291. Squireboy says:

    How about 8 years at a total of $299,462,536 or an average of $37,432,817 per year?

  292. Chris says:

    8 years, 255 mil

  293. Jon says:

    8 years 270 million or 33.75 mill per season

  294. Joe says:

    7 years, $252 million, $36 million per year

  295. stefan says:

    10 years, $327 million; $32.7 million/year

  296. Jeff says:

    7 years, $231 million; approximately $33 million/year.

  297. redsox4jack says:

    I say 9 years @ $33.5 mil = $301.5

    GO RED SOX

  298. Luds says:

    7 years for 245M, avg 35M per season

  299. Tom says:

    7 years, $256 million, $36.6 million/year

  300. Mike says:

    i say 8 years/$276 million…$34.5 mil a year…

  301. Jason says:

    8 years, 224 million. 28 mil/year.

  302. Max says:

    8 years, $260 mil, avg of $32.5 mil/yr

  303. Nicholas says:

    8 year, 236 million. 29.5 per

  304. Alex says:

    9 years, 300 million, approx. 33.3 mil/year

  305. Adam says:

    7 years, 270 million, a little over 38.5 annually

  306. Tom M. says:

    9 years, $279 million, $31 mil/season

  307. Cliff says:

    7 years: 214 million, 30.4 average. (with Yankees)

  308. Jordan