What Will A-Rod Get?

The Yankees have ten days beyond the World Series to sign Alex Rodriguez to an extension, so there is a decent chance that this will get settled very soon. (I think that the Yankees and A-Rod will part ways, but I will not be surprised if he stays.) So, I thought it would be a good time to go ahead and make a prediction as to what he will get. And I invite you to do so as well in the comments.

I’ve run a few numbers based on his performance over the past few seasons, his expected aging decline, and the anticipated rise in revenues over the course of the contract.

My prediction: 7 years, $244 million; approximately $34.8 million/year.

What do you think? The person who gets the closest wins a signed copy of The Baseball Economist. If you want to brand it with an asterisk, I don’t care, you can do so upon delivery. :-)

Contracts can vary along a few variables;therefore, determining who is “the closest” is a bit difficult. All predictions must include a contract length, total value, and approximate annual value, but I will decide the winner based on the per-year prediction. Ties (or near-ties) in per-year predictions will then be broken by length and total value of the contract predictions.

  • One entry per person.
  • You must submit a valid e-mail address, which will not be published, so that I can award the prize.
  • Contract predictions are limited to contracts that have not yet been submitted to the contest in millions of dollars to one decimal place for per-year estimates and to zero decimal places for total contract value.
  • Predictions should include only the specified dollar values listed above (see the format of my prediction). Commentary is not allowed.
  • Entries must be submitted prior to the end of the World Series.
  • I reserve the right to exclude the participation of anyone.
  • Because these contracts can get complicated, I am the final judge of the winner and I reserve the right to adjust for contract complexities and unforeseen events as I choose.

Addendum: Predictions are for 2008 and beyond. If he signs an extension with the Yankees, the total value will be the sum of the rest of his original contract plus the additional compensation he receives with an extension. The annual salary will be this sum divided by seasons after 2007.

Further Addendum: Please, do not include commentary in your prediction. It slows down the moderation.

Even Further Addendum: Remember, let’s keep this simple. No team options, no backloading, no “plus incentives”, etc. Three numbers based on the dollars guaranteed to A-Rod if he signs the deal.

UPDATE: Do not e-mail your submissions to me. You must submit your entry in the comments. Your entry may not show up immediately, because I have to moderate the comments but they will show up eventually. Also, PLEASE no commentary; submit three numbers and that is it.

389 Responses “What Will A-Rod Get?”

  1. James says:

    10 years, $342.3M, approximately $34.2M/year

  2. Agustin Rexach says:

    26 million 9 years

    234million

  3. Jason says:

    10 years @ 31.5 million a year making it 315 million

  4. Tom says:

    9 years, 504 million.

  5. Brian says:

    6 years and $195 million

  6. Andrew says:

    10 years $315,000,000. 31.5 Million per year.

  7. Matt says:

    7 years, $204 mil, $29.14/yr

  8. David says:

    10 years, $311MM total @ $31.1MM/yr

  9. Tom says:

    9 years, 504 Million = 56 / yr.

    Sorry I forgot to include the “per year” in post 184.

  10. dan c says:

    10 years, 315 million, 31.5 million a year

  11. Adam says:

    My prediction: 8 years, $275 million; $34.375 million/year

  12. Shane says:

    8 years, $267 MM; $33.3 MM/yr

  13. Steve says:

    9 years/272 million

  14. Paul says:

    8 years, $272 million- 34 mil/yr

  15. angelfan3 says:

    7 years 210 million

  16. Tony says:

    7 years, 258 mil, approx. 36.8/yr

  17. ben says:

    8 years, $307.5 million. approx 38.48 million per

  18. dan says:

    8 years, $235m, ~$29.4m/yr

  19. tank222 says:

    12 years, $357 million. ($29.75 million a year)

  20. andrew says:

    9 years, $270 million dollars.

  21. Antonio says:

    8 years, $270 million; 33.75 million/year

  22. Robin says:

    7 years, $221.55 (=$31.65/y)

  23. Kevin says:

    12 years, $395M …$33 million/year

  24. Lance says:

    7 years 225.5 million (32.2 million per yr)

  25. How about 9 years @ 30.5 Mill Per Season for 274.5 Million Total

  26. Ethan says:

    7 years – $220.5 mil (31.5 per)

  27. Tom says:

    Signs 7 year extension at 34.1 mill/year, bringing value to 10 year/319.7 million total

  28. Jeff says:

    11yrs 378 million 34.4per year

  29. Dennis says:

    8 years, $271 million

  30. Milt says:

    8 years, 225 milliom, 28.125 per year

  31. Hilton says:

    11 years 380 million

  32. Tom says:

    8 years, $211 million

    26.4M per

  33. Tim says:

    42m per year

    11 years for a total 462million

    ;)

  34. Vince N. says:

    5 year 25 million. Devil Rays, baby!!!

  35. Joanie says:

    9 years $288 million $32 million per year

  36. Peter says:

    8 years, $256, $32/yr, extension NYY.

  37. gorms says:

    7 years $199.5 million 28.5

  38. Russell says:

    8 year extention, 11 years total, $380 million total, 34,545,455 average per year

  39. Dustin says:

    8 Years / $211.5M / $26.44M per year

  40. R.J. says:

    My prediction: 8 years, $236.3 million; approximately $29.54 million/year.

  41. Tim says:

    8 years 260MM/ 32.5MM/ year

  42. Frankie says:

    8 years 285 mil 35.6m/year

  43. Steve says:

    9 Years 283.5MM 31.5MM/Year Option for 10th Year

  44. Ted says:

    3 years. $100MM total. $33.3MM/year.

  45. Steve says:

    7 years, $189M – $27M/year

  46. Dan says:

    7 years, $215 million; $30.71 per year

  47. Nick says:

    7 years/$238 million

  48. kkreider13 says:

    10 years/328 Million; 32.8 Million/year

  49. yogi buck says:

    7 yrs – $191 mil. $28.714 mil per season (Yanks extend)

  50. Oscar M. says:

    7 years @ 26.5 million per year – 185.5MM