What Will A-Rod Get?
The Yankees have ten days beyond the World Series to sign Alex Rodriguez to an extension, so there is a decent chance that this will get settled very soon. (I think that the Yankees and A-Rod will part ways, but I will not be surprised if he stays.) So, I thought it would be a good time to go ahead and make a prediction as to what he will get. And I invite you to do so as well in the comments.
I’ve run a few numbers based on his performance over the past few seasons, his expected aging decline, and the anticipated rise in revenues over the course of the contract.
My prediction: 7 years, $244 million; approximately $34.8 million/year.
What do you think? The person who gets the closest wins a signed copy of The Baseball Economist. If you want to brand it with an asterisk, I don’t care, you can do so upon delivery. 
Contracts can vary along a few variables;therefore, determining who is “the closest” is a bit difficult. All predictions must include a contract length, total value, and approximate annual value, but I will decide the winner based on the per-year prediction. Ties (or near-ties) in per-year predictions will then be broken by length and total value of the contract predictions.
- One entry per person.
- You must submit a valid e-mail address, which will not be published, so that I can award the prize.
- Contract predictions are limited to contracts that have not yet been submitted to the contest in millions of dollars to one decimal place for per-year estimates and to zero decimal places for total contract value.
- Predictions should include only the specified dollar values listed above (see the format of my prediction). Commentary is not allowed.
- Entries must be submitted prior to the end of the World Series.
- I reserve the right to exclude the participation of anyone.
- Because these contracts can get complicated, I am the final judge of the winner and I reserve the right to adjust for contract complexities and unforeseen events as I choose.
Addendum: Predictions are for 2008 and beyond. If he signs an extension with the Yankees, the total value will be the sum of the rest of his original contract plus the additional compensation he receives with an extension. The annual salary will be this sum divided by seasons after 2007.
Further Addendum: Please, do not include commentary in your prediction. It slows down the moderation.
Even Further Addendum: Remember, let’s keep this simple. No team options, no backloading, no “plus incentives”, etc. Three numbers based on the dollars guaranteed to A-Rod if he signs the deal.
UPDATE: Do not e-mail your submissions to me. You must submit your entry in the comments. Your entry may not show up immediately, because I have to moderate the comments but they will show up eventually. Also, PLEASE no commentary; submit three numbers and that is it.
10 years, $342.3M, approximately $34.2M/year
26 million 9 years
234million
10 years @ 31.5 million a year making it 315 million
9 years, 504 million.
6 years and $195 million
10 years $315,000,000. 31.5 Million per year.
7 years, $204 mil, $29.14/yr
10 years, $311MM total @ $31.1MM/yr
9 years, 504 Million = 56 / yr.
Sorry I forgot to include the “per year” in post 184.
10 years, 315 million, 31.5 million a year
My prediction: 8 years, $275 million; $34.375 million/year
8 years, $267 MM; $33.3 MM/yr
9 years/272 million
8 years, $272 million- 34 mil/yr
7 years 210 million
7 years, 258 mil, approx. 36.8/yr
8 years, $307.5 million. approx 38.48 million per
8 years, $235m, ~$29.4m/yr
12 years, $357 million. ($29.75 million a year)
9 years, $270 million dollars.
8 years, $270 million; 33.75 million/year
7 years, $221.55 (=$31.65/y)
12 years, $395M …$33 million/year
7 years 225.5 million (32.2 million per yr)
How about 9 years @ 30.5 Mill Per Season for 274.5 Million Total
7 years – $220.5 mil (31.5 per)
Signs 7 year extension at 34.1 mill/year, bringing value to 10 year/319.7 million total
11yrs 378 million 34.4per year
8 years, $271 million
8 years, 225 milliom, 28.125 per year
11 years 380 million
8 years, $211 million
26.4M per
42m per year
11 years for a total 462million
5 year 25 million. Devil Rays, baby!!!
9 years $288 million $32 million per year
8 years, $256, $32/yr, extension NYY.
7 years $199.5 million 28.5
8 year extention, 11 years total, $380 million total, 34,545,455 average per year
8 Years / $211.5M / $26.44M per year
My prediction: 8 years, $236.3 million; approximately $29.54 million/year.
8 years 260MM/ 32.5MM/ year
8 years 285 mil 35.6m/year
9 Years 283.5MM 31.5MM/Year Option for 10th Year
3 years. $100MM total. $33.3MM/year.
7 years, $189M – $27M/year
7 years, $215 million; $30.71 per year
7 years/$238 million
10 years/328 Million; 32.8 Million/year
7 yrs – $191 mil. $28.714 mil per season (Yanks extend)
7 years @ 26.5 million per year – 185.5MM