What Will A-Rod Get?
The Yankees have ten days beyond the World Series to sign Alex Rodriguez to an extension, so there is a decent chance that this will get settled very soon. (I think that the Yankees and A-Rod will part ways, but I will not be surprised if he stays.) So, I thought it would be a good time to go ahead and make a prediction as to what he will get. And I invite you to do so as well in the comments.
I’ve run a few numbers based on his performance over the past few seasons, his expected aging decline, and the anticipated rise in revenues over the course of the contract.
My prediction: 7 years, $244 million; approximately $34.8 million/year.
What do you think? The person who gets the closest wins a signed copy of The Baseball Economist. If you want to brand it with an asterisk, I don’t care, you can do so upon delivery. 
Contracts can vary along a few variables;therefore, determining who is “the closest” is a bit difficult. All predictions must include a contract length, total value, and approximate annual value, but I will decide the winner based on the per-year prediction. Ties (or near-ties) in per-year predictions will then be broken by length and total value of the contract predictions.
- One entry per person.
- You must submit a valid e-mail address, which will not be published, so that I can award the prize.
- Contract predictions are limited to contracts that have not yet been submitted to the contest in millions of dollars to one decimal place for per-year estimates and to zero decimal places for total contract value.
- Predictions should include only the specified dollar values listed above (see the format of my prediction). Commentary is not allowed.
- Entries must be submitted prior to the end of the World Series.
- I reserve the right to exclude the participation of anyone.
- Because these contracts can get complicated, I am the final judge of the winner and I reserve the right to adjust for contract complexities and unforeseen events as I choose.
Addendum: Predictions are for 2008 and beyond. If he signs an extension with the Yankees, the total value will be the sum of the rest of his original contract plus the additional compensation he receives with an extension. The annual salary will be this sum divided by seasons after 2007.
Further Addendum: Please, do not include commentary in your prediction. It slows down the moderation.
Even Further Addendum: Remember, let’s keep this simple. No team options, no backloading, no “plus incentives”, etc. Three numbers based on the dollars guaranteed to A-Rod if he signs the deal.
UPDATE: Do not e-mail your submissions to me. You must submit your entry in the comments. Your entry may not show up immediately, because I have to moderate the comments but they will show up eventually. Also, PLEASE no commentary; submit three numbers and that is it.
12 years, 396 million- Red Sox
8 years/ 268 mil/ 33.5 mil a year with a club option for next year.
8 years/ 268 mil/ 33.5 mil per year
7 years, $224 million, $32m per
7 years 150MM/21.4 a year
12 years 480 million 40 million a year
9 years, $298M or $33.11M a year.
8 yrs, 288 million , 32.6 mil a yr.
8yrs 280 million
Yankees extend 7 years. Total contract value: $350MM over 10 years.
8 years, $235mil ($29.375mil annual avg value)
6 year 192 million extension
10 years, $290 million, $29 million per year.
10 years, 250 million, 25 million per year
10 yrs $275 mil. (27.5/yr)
a nice 8 years, $248 million, $31 Mil per year
7 years, $218 million, about $31 million a year.
8 yrs / 244 million / 30.5 milion per yr
7 years. Total Contract: $241.5 million: 34.5 million per year
29 at 9 years 261 if it’s not taken.
8 years 314 million
12 years for 386.4 million; approximately 32.2 million a year
7 years, 212 million, 30.3 million
7 Years 200 Million
5 years, 160 million, 32 mil per year.
7 years, 193 million, 27.57 mill/year
(includes remaining 3 years plus 4-year extension with Yankees)
5 years, 160 million; 32 million/year
8 yrs, $285 million, $35.625 million per year
290 million for 8 years. $36.25 million per year
5 years, $150 million, $30 mil per year
8 years, 264 million, $33 million/year.
7 yrs, $262.5M, $37.5M/yr
10 years….275 Million
4 years, 152 million, 38 million/year
9 Year – 281 Million – 31.22 Mil/Year
My guess is 282M for 8 years. 35.25M per year.
15 years/550 million/ approx 37 mil per
8 years 320 million 1st 40 million a year player
10 Years. 310 total. 31 mil per year average.
ten years, 312 mil (31.1ish mil average)
How about 8 years at a total of $299,462,536 or an average of $37,432,817 per year?
8 years, 255 mil
8 years 270 million or 33.75 mill per season
7 years, $252 million, $36 million per year
10 years, $327 million; $32.7 million/year
7 years, $231 million; approximately $33 million/year.
I say 9 years @ $33.5 mil = $301.5
GO RED SOX
7 years for 245M, avg 35M per season
7 years, $256 million, $36.6 million/year
i say 8 years/$276 million…$34.5 mil a year…