What Will A-Rod Get?

The Yankees have ten days beyond the World Series to sign Alex Rodriguez to an extension, so there is a decent chance that this will get settled very soon. (I think that the Yankees and A-Rod will part ways, but I will not be surprised if he stays.) So, I thought it would be a good time to go ahead and make a prediction as to what he will get. And I invite you to do so as well in the comments.

I’ve run a few numbers based on his performance over the past few seasons, his expected aging decline, and the anticipated rise in revenues over the course of the contract.

My prediction: 7 years, $244 million; approximately $34.8 million/year.

What do you think? The person who gets the closest wins a signed copy of The Baseball Economist. If you want to brand it with an asterisk, I don’t care, you can do so upon delivery. :-)

Contracts can vary along a few variables;therefore, determining who is “the closest” is a bit difficult. All predictions must include a contract length, total value, and approximate annual value, but I will decide the winner based on the per-year prediction. Ties (or near-ties) in per-year predictions will then be broken by length and total value of the contract predictions.

  • One entry per person.
  • You must submit a valid e-mail address, which will not be published, so that I can award the prize.
  • Contract predictions are limited to contracts that have not yet been submitted to the contest in millions of dollars to one decimal place for per-year estimates and to zero decimal places for total contract value.
  • Predictions should include only the specified dollar values listed above (see the format of my prediction). Commentary is not allowed.
  • Entries must be submitted prior to the end of the World Series.
  • I reserve the right to exclude the participation of anyone.
  • Because these contracts can get complicated, I am the final judge of the winner and I reserve the right to adjust for contract complexities and unforeseen events as I choose.

Addendum: Predictions are for 2008 and beyond. If he signs an extension with the Yankees, the total value will be the sum of the rest of his original contract plus the additional compensation he receives with an extension. The annual salary will be this sum divided by seasons after 2007.

Further Addendum: Please, do not include commentary in your prediction. It slows down the moderation.

Even Further Addendum: Remember, let’s keep this simple. No team options, no backloading, no “plus incentives”, etc. Three numbers based on the dollars guaranteed to A-Rod if he signs the deal.

UPDATE: Do not e-mail your submissions to me. You must submit your entry in the comments. Your entry may not show up immediately, because I have to moderate the comments but they will show up eventually. Also, PLEASE no commentary; submit three numbers and that is it.

389 Responses “What Will A-Rod Get?”

  1. Mike L says:

    12 years, 396 million- Red Sox

  2. Tommy Mahesh says:

    8 years/ 268 mil/ 33.5 mil a year with a club option for next year.

  3. Tommy Mahesh says:

    8 years/ 268 mil/ 33.5 mil per year

  4. James F says:

    7 years, $224 million, $32m per

  5. Layne G says:

    7 years 150MM/21.4 a year

  6. Lawrence Robson says:

    12 years 480 million 40 million a year

  7. Dave B says:

    9 years, $298M or $33.11M a year.

  8. Jaime Quinones says:

    8 yrs, 288 million , 32.6 mil a yr.

  9. paul k says:

    8yrs 280 million

  10. George Herman Ruth says:

    Yankees extend 7 years. Total contract value: $350MM over 10 years.

  11. Christian says:

    8 years, $235mil ($29.375mil annual avg value)

  12. Mike R. (The Original) says:

    6 year 192 million extension

  13. Adam K says:

    10 years, $290 million, $29 million per year.

  14. Jesse says:

    10 years, 250 million, 25 million per year

  15. Bryan says:

    10 yrs $275 mil. (27.5/yr)

  16. Mike says:

    a nice 8 years, $248 million, $31 Mil per year

  17. yankeesSUCK says:

    7 years, $218 million, about $31 million a year.

  18. Patrick Houston says:

    8 yrs / 244 million / 30.5 milion per yr

  19. Grayson says:

    7 years. Total Contract: $241.5 million: 34.5 million per year

  20. Paul says:

    29 at 9 years 261 if it’s not taken.

  21. Joe Nier says:

    8 years 314 million

  22. Rich says:

    12 years for 386.4 million; approximately 32.2 million a year

  23. Richard says:

    7 years, 212 million, 30.3 million

  24. Aaron says:

    7 Years 200 Million

  25. wstu says:

    5 years, 160 million, 32 mil per year.

  26. VCarver says:

    7 years, 193 million, 27.57 mill/year

    (includes remaining 3 years plus 4-year extension with Yankees)

  27. Mike M. says:

    5 years, 160 million; 32 million/year

  28. Harrison219 says:

    8 yrs, $285 million, $35.625 million per year

  29. Ben T says:

    290 million for 8 years. $36.25 million per year

  30. Brady says:

    5 years, $150 million, $30 mil per year

  31. Koby P says:

    8 years, 264 million, $33 million/year.

  32. hilarie says:

    7 yrs, $262.5M, $37.5M/yr

  33. George says:

    10 years….275 Million

  34. Sal Paradise says:

    4 years, 152 million, 38 million/year

  35. Mark says:

    9 Year – 281 Million – 31.22 Mil/Year

  36. Bill says:

    My guess is 282M for 8 years. 35.25M per year.

  37. Mike says:

    15 years/550 million/ approx 37 mil per

  38. deaconbain says:

    8 years 320 million 1st 40 million a year player

  39. 2nd Gen says:

    10 Years. 310 total. 31 mil per year average.

  40. Jacob Burch says:

    ten years, 312 mil (31.1ish mil average)

  41. Squireboy says:

    How about 8 years at a total of $299,462,536 or an average of $37,432,817 per year?

  42. Chris says:

    8 years, 255 mil

  43. Jon says:

    8 years 270 million or 33.75 mill per season

  44. Joe says:

    7 years, $252 million, $36 million per year

  45. stefan says:

    10 years, $327 million; $32.7 million/year

  46. Jeff says:

    7 years, $231 million; approximately $33 million/year.

  47. redsox4jack says:

    I say 9 years @ $33.5 mil = $301.5


  48. Luds says:

    7 years for 245M, avg 35M per season

  49. Tom says:

    7 years, $256 million, $36.6 million/year

  50. Mike says:

    i say 8 years/$276 million…$34.5 mil a year…