What Will A-Rod Get?

The Yankees have ten days beyond the World Series to sign Alex Rodriguez to an extension, so there is a decent chance that this will get settled very soon. (I think that the Yankees and A-Rod will part ways, but I will not be surprised if he stays.) So, I thought it would be a good time to go ahead and make a prediction as to what he will get. And I invite you to do so as well in the comments.

I’ve run a few numbers based on his performance over the past few seasons, his expected aging decline, and the anticipated rise in revenues over the course of the contract.

My prediction: 7 years, $244 million; approximately $34.8 million/year.

What do you think? The person who gets the closest wins a signed copy of The Baseball Economist. If you want to brand it with an asterisk, I don’t care, you can do so upon delivery. :-)

Contracts can vary along a few variables;therefore, determining who is “the closest” is a bit difficult. All predictions must include a contract length, total value, and approximate annual value, but I will decide the winner based on the per-year prediction. Ties (or near-ties) in per-year predictions will then be broken by length and total value of the contract predictions.

  • One entry per person.
  • You must submit a valid e-mail address, which will not be published, so that I can award the prize.
  • Contract predictions are limited to contracts that have not yet been submitted to the contest in millions of dollars to one decimal place for per-year estimates and to zero decimal places for total contract value.
  • Predictions should include only the specified dollar values listed above (see the format of my prediction). Commentary is not allowed.
  • Entries must be submitted prior to the end of the World Series.
  • I reserve the right to exclude the participation of anyone.
  • Because these contracts can get complicated, I am the final judge of the winner and I reserve the right to adjust for contract complexities and unforeseen events as I choose.

Addendum: Predictions are for 2008 and beyond. If he signs an extension with the Yankees, the total value will be the sum of the rest of his original contract plus the additional compensation he receives with an extension. The annual salary will be this sum divided by seasons after 2007.

Further Addendum: Please, do not include commentary in your prediction. It slows down the moderation.

Even Further Addendum: Remember, let’s keep this simple. No team options, no backloading, no “plus incentives”, etc. Three numbers based on the dollars guaranteed to A-Rod if he signs the deal.

UPDATE: Do not e-mail your submissions to me. You must submit your entry in the comments. Your entry may not show up immediately, because I have to moderate the comments but they will show up eventually. Also, PLEASE no commentary; submit three numbers and that is it.

389 Responses “What Will A-Rod Get?”

  1. Jason says:

    8 years, 224 million. 28 mil/year.

  2. Max says:

    8 years, $260 mil, avg of $32.5 mil/yr

  3. Nicholas says:

    8 year, 236 million. 29.5 per

  4. Alex says:

    9 years, 300 million, approx. 33.3 mil/year

  5. Adam says:

    7 years, 270 million, a little over 38.5 annually

  6. Tom M. says:

    9 years, $279 million, $31 mil/season

  7. Cliff says:

    7 years: 214 million, 30.4 average. (with Yankees)

  8. Jordan says:

    11 years, $308 million, or $28 million/year

  9. Randy says:

    9 years . . $285.75 million . . $31.75 million per year

  10. Dave says:

    8 years, $284 million, $35.5 million per year

  11. Peter says:

    8 years., $247.5 million, $30.9375 mil/yr

  12. Greg says:

    8 years / 276 Million (34.5 per)

  13. Brendan says:

    9 yrs, 299 M: 33.2/ yr

  14. SeaHawk2k7 says:

    8 years, $256 million, $32 million per year

  15. James says:

    9 years, 265 mil, $29.4 per year

  16. Brian says:

    7 years, 203 million dollars, $29 mill a year.

  17. Tim says:

    7 years 168 million 24 million per year

  18. John Salmon says:

    8 years, $260.5 million, $32.6 aprox/yr.

  19. bryan says:

    10 years $314 million, which is $31.4 million per year

  20. Ron says:

    9 years 340 million, 36.7 per

  21. Micah R. says:

    12 years, $366 Million, $30.5/year

  22. Trolley Car says:

    8 years $280 Million

  23. 6 years $210 mil $35 mil a year

  24. pault says:

    8 years 224 Mil, 28 per year.

  25. Sal says:

    8 years, $254 million; approximately $31.8 million/year

  26. dan says:

    7 years, $207,550,000 total, $29.65 annually

  27. Looney says:

    7 years, $200 million; approximately $28.6 million/year

  28. Pete B. says:

    10 yrs 34M per – $340M contract

  29. Erik G says:

    6 years for $225 Million ($37.5 per) Angels get him!!!

  30. Matt H says:

    10 yrs 33.25 million per

  31. Mark D. says:

    11 years at $352M, 32M a year

  32. Jose says:

    8 years, $242.4 million, $30.3 per year

  33. daneptizl says:

    6 years/$180 million/$30 million per.

  34. Robert says:

    9 years, $33.5 million per year, $301.5 million total

  35. Blair says:

    10 years $350 million, $35 million/year

  36. Ryan says:

    11 Years – $346.5 Million ($31.5 per)

  37. Kevin says:

    9 years at $31 mil $279 mil

  38. Slim Andslam says:

    8 years, $286MM, $35.75MM/yr (or $35.8MM/yr, if you round to one decimal place and round upwards)

  39. Sheldon says:

    11 years, $400 million or $36.36/year

  40. Steve K says:

    10 years, $321 Million, $32.1 per year

  41. Greg says:

    10 years, $253mil, $25.3 per year

  42. A-Rod says:

    10 years 350 mil 35 mil per

  43. Neil says:

    12 years, $355 million

  44. Jason says:

    10 years, $305 million; approximately $30.5 million/year

  45. Eric DeBellis says:

    12 years $380 Million 31.6 Million/year

  46. Bill says:

    8 years 278 million 34.75 mm per year

  47. Andrew says:

    6 years, 36 million per – 216 mil total

  48. Steve Krzyzanowski says:

    Arod-232.75 mill over 7 years. 33.25 per year

  49. Jesse says:

    10 years $400 million
    Anuual avg approx $40mil

  50. Tom says:

    10 years $299 million $29.9 million per year.