The Yankees have ten days beyond the World Series to sign Alex Rodriguez to an extension, so there is a decent chance that this will get settled very soon. (I think that the Yankees and A-Rod will part ways, but I will not be surprised if he stays.) So, I thought it would be a good time to go ahead and make a prediction as to what he will get. And I invite you to do so as well in the comments.
I’ve run a few numbers based on his performance over the past few seasons, his expected aging decline, and the anticipated rise in revenues over the course of the contract.
My prediction: 7 years, $244 million; approximately $34.8 million/year.
What do you think? The person who gets the closest wins a signed copy of The Baseball Economist. If you want to brand it with an asterisk, I don’t care, you can do so upon delivery.
Contracts can vary along a few variables;therefore, determining who is “the closest” is a bit difficult. All predictions must include a contract length, total value, and approximate annual value, but I will decide the winner based on the per-year prediction. Ties (or near-ties) in per-year predictions will then be broken by length and total value of the contract predictions.
- One entry per person.
- You must submit a valid e-mail address, which will not be published, so that I can award the prize.
- Contract predictions are limited to contracts that have not yet been submitted to the contest in millions of dollars to one decimal place for per-year estimates and to zero decimal places for total contract value.
- Predictions should include only the specified dollar values listed above (see the format of my prediction). Commentary is not allowed.
- Entries must be submitted prior to the end of the World Series.
- I reserve the right to exclude the participation of anyone.
- Because these contracts can get complicated, I am the final judge of the winner and I reserve the right to adjust for contract complexities and unforeseen events as I choose.
Addendum: Predictions are for 2008 and beyond. If he signs an extension with the Yankees, the total value will be the sum of the rest of his original contract plus the additional compensation he receives with an extension. The annual salary will be this sum divided by seasons after 2007.
Further Addendum: Please, do not include commentary in your prediction. It slows down the moderation.
Even Further Addendum: Remember, let’s keep this simple. No team options, no backloading, no “plus incentives”, etc. Three numbers based on the dollars guaranteed to A-Rod if he signs the deal.
UPDATE: Do not e-mail your submissions to me. You must submit your entry in the comments. Your entry may not show up immediately, because I have to moderate the comments but they will show up eventually. Also, PLEASE no commentary; submit three numbers and that is it.