What Will A-Rod Get?

The Yankees have ten days beyond the World Series to sign Alex Rodriguez to an extension, so there is a decent chance that this will get settled very soon. (I think that the Yankees and A-Rod will part ways, but I will not be surprised if he stays.) So, I thought it would be a good time to go ahead and make a prediction as to what he will get. And I invite you to do so as well in the comments.

I’ve run a few numbers based on his performance over the past few seasons, his expected aging decline, and the anticipated rise in revenues over the course of the contract.

My prediction: 7 years, $244 million; approximately $34.8 million/year.

What do you think? The person who gets the closest wins a signed copy of The Baseball Economist. If you want to brand it with an asterisk, I don’t care, you can do so upon delivery. :-)

Contracts can vary along a few variables;therefore, determining who is “the closest” is a bit difficult. All predictions must include a contract length, total value, and approximate annual value, but I will decide the winner based on the per-year prediction. Ties (or near-ties) in per-year predictions will then be broken by length and total value of the contract predictions.

  • One entry per person.
  • You must submit a valid e-mail address, which will not be published, so that I can award the prize.
  • Contract predictions are limited to contracts that have not yet been submitted to the contest in millions of dollars to one decimal place for per-year estimates and to zero decimal places for total contract value.
  • Predictions should include only the specified dollar values listed above (see the format of my prediction). Commentary is not allowed.
  • Entries must be submitted prior to the end of the World Series.
  • I reserve the right to exclude the participation of anyone.
  • Because these contracts can get complicated, I am the final judge of the winner and I reserve the right to adjust for contract complexities and unforeseen events as I choose.

Addendum: Predictions are for 2008 and beyond. If he signs an extension with the Yankees, the total value will be the sum of the rest of his original contract plus the additional compensation he receives with an extension. The annual salary will be this sum divided by seasons after 2007.

Further Addendum: Please, do not include commentary in your prediction. It slows down the moderation.

Even Further Addendum: Remember, let’s keep this simple. No team options, no backloading, no “plus incentives”, etc. Three numbers based on the dollars guaranteed to A-Rod if he signs the deal.

UPDATE: Do not e-mail your submissions to me. You must submit your entry in the comments. Your entry may not show up immediately, because I have to moderate the comments but they will show up eventually. Also, PLEASE no commentary; submit three numbers and that is it.

389 Responses “What Will A-Rod Get?”

  1. Ryan says:

    7 years @ $44.4 mil per year = $310.8 mil

  2. 10 years, $321 million, or $32.1 million/year

  3. Peter Lowry says:

    12 years, $372 M (Avg: 31 M per year)

  4. Charles says:

    9 years, $271 million $30.1 million/yr

  5. Corey Burrington says:

    9 years, $304 million, $33.78 mil/yr.

  6. AKB says:

    9 years, $270M, $30M/YR

  7. DWCB says:

    8 years, 200MM, 25MM/year

  8. Steve Hollis says:

    7 years, 217 million, or 31 million a year

  9. Andrew says:

    7 years, $226 million ($32.3 million/year)

  10. chris says:

    8 yrs – 45 mil/yr – 360 million

  11. Zach says:

    8 years, $258 million, $32.25/year

  12. Alan says:

    10 years, $310 $31million/year

  13. jason mitchell says:

    9 Years, $300 mil, 33.3/yr

  14. Scott says:

    8yrs 300million

  15. Brad says:

    9 years, 350 million, just a hair under 39 mm per year.

  16. Brian Mills says:

    6 years, $176 million, $29.3 million a year

  17. George says:

    I got A-Rod 5 years 145 million dollars which is 29 million dollars a year.

  18. Mark Boggs says:

    5 years $155 million, or $32 million a year

  19. Mo says:

    5 years 100m $20m a year

  20. Brent says:

    8 years, $261 Million

  21. Josh says:

    7 years @ $39.29 million = $275 million

  22. Ronnie says:

    8 years 29,501,000 per year total: 236,008,000

  23. Joseph Pezzino says:

    I’m gonna go with 10 years and 350 million.

  24. GKit says:

    8yrs for $230M = 28.75M/yr

  25. phil c says:

    9 years, $265.5 million, or $29.5 million/year

  26. Kenny says:

    9 yrs $281.5 million

  27. Juan V. says:

    8 years, $240 million ($30 million per).

  28. Brandon says:

    8 years, $256 million ($32 million per year)

  29. Alejandro says:

    15 YEAR 300 MILLION.

  30. Nick S says:

    7 years/200 million ($28.57 million/year)

  31. bryan says:

    10 years, 320 million

  32. Chuck Ross says:

    5 years, $150 million

  33. Brian says:

    7 yr., $182M, $26M/yr

  34. Johannes from Germany says:

    7 years, $227.5, $32.5 per month

  35. Rob R says:

    8 Years, $249 mil, for a lovely $31.13 mil/year

  36. Brian says:

    8 years, $250 million, $31.25 mil/year

  37. jackie hayes says:

    8 years, $277 million, $34.6 mil per

  38. Eddie says:

    10 years, $280 million $28m/yr