In my opinion, this is a real stinker of a deal. Last year, I have him valued at $2.45 million. If we assume he continues to pitch at this level for the next three years and salaries increase at ten percent a year (generous assumptions), he’ll be worth about $9 million over the course of the contract. And, I’m being quite optimistic. I suspect that there is very little danger of the Phillies wanting to pick up the $4.75 million option for the fourth year.
There are going to be a lot of free agent contracts signed this offseason that seem to be outrageous at first, but upon further inspection appear to be on target. In this case, the second glance only confirms the first.