Comments on: Valuing Cordero and Linebrink http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/11/valuing-cordero-and-linebrink/ Economic Thinking about Baseball Sun, 09 Jan 2011 17:16:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Nick Kowalski http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/11/valuing-cordero-and-linebrink/comment-page-1/#comment-71241 Nick Kowalski Mon, 10 Dec 2007 07:21:39 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/11/valuing-cordero-and-linebrink/#comment-71241 Closers are over rated. The Setup guy is just as important as the Closer. They both have the same chances of blowing the game just different innings. If Weathers blows it in the 8th, Cordero won't pitch the 9th. While acquiring Cordero gives them the ability to place Weathers in 8th where he was in the 9th, it helps. But Weather is a year older and who knows how much longer he can do it. Closers are over rated. The Setup guy is just as important as the Closer. They both have the same chances of blowing the game just different innings. If Weathers blows it in the 8th, Cordero won’t pitch the 9th. While acquiring Cordero gives them the ability to place Weathers in 8th where he was in the 9th, it helps. But Weather is a year older and who knows how much longer he can do it.

]]> By: Mark http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/11/valuing-cordero-and-linebrink/comment-page-1/#comment-69496 Mark Wed, 28 Nov 2007 04:16:02 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/11/valuing-cordero-and-linebrink/#comment-69496 Cordero is a good pitcher though. His peripherals are great and have been for many years. I think the market is just getting to be higher price for RP. Even though it looks over payed now, in 2 years it might not look that bad. I know that relief pitching is "lucky" in that 1 bad outing can skew the overall stats, but the thing is a pitcher like Cordero has strong and steady peripherals to suggest he will keep up the pace. The value is in expecting these results. Cordero Linebrink K/9 10.30 8.55 2005 10.04 8.09 2006 12.22 6.40 2007 BB/9 3.91 2.81 2005 3.82 2.62 2006 2.56 3.20 2007 HR/9 0.65 0.49 2005 0.84 1.07 2006 0.57 1.54 2007 BABIP .326 .270 2005 .326 .296 2006 .341 .274 2007 The general trend here is a considerable decline in Linebrink and maybe slight incline for Cordero. Overpaying is relative. If every deal if overpaying then can it really be overpaying? It seems to happen every year that the GMs are overpaying for FA's and I just don't believe it with few exceptions (Zito, Pierre). The system your using that determines a relievers probably hasn't adjusted to the new market. Cordero is a good pitcher though. His peripherals are great and have been for many years. I think the market is just getting to be higher price for RP. Even though it looks over payed now, in 2 years it might not look that bad.
I know that relief pitching is “lucky” in that 1 bad outing can skew the overall stats, but the thing is a pitcher like Cordero has strong and steady peripherals to suggest he will keep up the pace. The value is in expecting these results.

Cordero Linebrink
K/9
10.30 8.55 2005
10.04 8.09 2006
12.22 6.40 2007

BB/9
3.91 2.81 2005
3.82 2.62 2006
2.56 3.20 2007

HR/9
0.65 0.49 2005
0.84 1.07 2006
0.57 1.54 2007

BABIP
.326 .270 2005
.326 .296 2006
.341 .274 2007

The general trend here is a considerable decline in Linebrink and maybe slight incline for Cordero.

Overpaying is relative. If every deal if overpaying then can it really be overpaying? It seems to happen every year that the GMs are overpaying for FA’s and I just don’t believe it with few exceptions (Zito, Pierre). The system your using that determines a relievers probably hasn’t adjusted to the new market.

]]> By: Pizza Cutter http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/11/valuing-cordero-and-linebrink/comment-page-1/#comment-69465 Pizza Cutter Tue, 27 Nov 2007 23:49:32 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/11/valuing-cordero-and-linebrink/#comment-69465 JC, looking at the closer premium, I think it becomes very clear that GMs are behaving irrationally in this market. Or at least, they're behaving rationally within a false belief that saves = good pitcher. JC, looking at the closer premium, I think it becomes very clear that GMs are behaving irrationally in this market. Or at least, they’re behaving rationally within a false belief that saves = good pitcher.

]]> By: JC http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/11/valuing-cordero-and-linebrink/comment-page-1/#comment-69434 JC Tue, 27 Nov 2007 18:59:57 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/11/valuing-cordero-and-linebrink/#comment-69434 Harang and Arroyo are locked into contracts that escalate in payouts over the next few years. <a href="http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/cincinnati-reds_24.html" rel="nofollow">Cot's Baseball Contracts</a> Harang and Arroyo are locked into contracts that escalate in payouts over the next few years.

Cot’s Baseball Contracts

]]> By: tangotiger http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/11/valuing-cordero-and-linebrink/comment-page-1/#comment-69432 tangotiger Tue, 27 Nov 2007 18:32:10 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/11/valuing-cordero-and-linebrink/#comment-69432 FWIW, I have Cordero at a 4/26 value. This includes the higher leverage opportunity to be able to use him as a closer. Without the closer aspect, he'd be close to JC's number. (Figure about a 50% bonus to be able to match quality players to crucial situations.) FWIW, I have Cordero at a 4/26 value. This includes the higher leverage opportunity to be able to use him as a closer. Without the closer aspect, he’d be close to JC’s number. (Figure about a 50% bonus to be able to match quality players to crucial situations.)

]]> By: cpadgett http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/11/valuing-cordero-and-linebrink/comment-page-1/#comment-69431 cpadgett Tue, 27 Nov 2007 18:27:07 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/11/valuing-cordero-and-linebrink/#comment-69431 Not sure where you did your research but Harang and Arroyo signed extensions before last season. They are both locked up through 2010 with club options for 2011. You should also take in to consideration that we took him away from another team in the division so that becomes an added bonus plus the other team trying to sign him was Houston. So they basically kept 2 divisional teams from getting an all star closer and filled the weakest spot on their team. Not sure where you did your research but Harang and Arroyo signed extensions before last season. They are both locked up through 2010 with club options for 2011.

You should also take in to consideration that we took him away from another team in the division so that becomes an added bonus plus the other team trying to sign him was Houston. So they basically kept 2 divisional teams from getting an all star closer and filled the weakest spot on their team.

]]> By: mraver http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/11/valuing-cordero-and-linebrink/comment-page-1/#comment-69419 mraver Tue, 27 Nov 2007 15:43:17 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2007/11/valuing-cordero-and-linebrink/#comment-69419 Two comments: First, I'm surprised to see how closely you project the values of Cordero and Linebrink. The latter has been in something of a steady decline over the last few years while Cordero had what looks like a career year last year (ie, he hasn't really be on the decline). Linebrink has been more durable over the course of his career, but I'd be surprised to see that make up for the large difference in K-rates (10+ vs. 7-8). Also, I've heard many people mention that they don't like giving long-term contracts for relievers. Now, in general, I support the bullpen-from-within approach. But when you do sign a reliever, I have no problem doing a 3 or 4 year deal, simply because every time you sign a guy, you've got to give up a draft pick (assuming he's any good). This is a VERY high cost considering how less valuable relievers are when compared to say starters or position players. So you don't want to be giving up your first rounder every year. This is avoided by giving out a longer-term deal. But I dunno. Maybe if you do the short-term thing you get a draft pick back the next year from offering your departing guy arbitration (assuming the team that signs him doesn't have a protected pick or whatever...). Two comments:

First, I’m surprised to see how closely you project the values of Cordero and Linebrink. The latter has been in something of a steady decline over the last few years while Cordero had what looks like a career year last year (ie, he hasn’t really be on the decline). Linebrink has been more durable over the course of his career, but I’d be surprised to see that make up for the large difference in K-rates (10+ vs. 7-8).

Also, I’ve heard many people mention that they don’t like giving long-term contracts for relievers. Now, in general, I support the bullpen-from-within approach. But when you do sign a reliever, I have no problem doing a 3 or 4 year deal, simply because every time you sign a guy, you’ve got to give up a draft pick (assuming he’s any good). This is a VERY high cost considering how less valuable relievers are when compared to say starters or position players. So you don’t want to be giving up your first rounder every year. This is avoided by giving out a longer-term deal.

But I dunno. Maybe if you do the short-term thing you get a draft pick back the next year from offering your departing guy arbitration (assuming the team that signs him doesn’t have a protected pick or whatever…).

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