Valuing Andruw Jones
After almost no mention of Andruw Jones in the free agent market, he emerges with a two-year, $36.2 million deal with the Dodgers. This is the contract I have been waiting for. Andruw’s 2007 may have been the worst performance, relative to career numbers, by a player entering the final year of his contract in the history of baseball. I was curious as to what this would mean. In the end, I think that one year harmed his value, mainly because it scared away teams from signing a long-term deal.
But, the announcers on the radio this morning couldn’t believe he could command such a big salary. How can I say that 2007 hurt his value, after he pulls in $18.1 million a year? Based on his previous three-years, factoring in salary growth and aging, I anticipate Jones’s performance being worth about $40 million over the next two seasons. This prediction includes his 2007 campaign. Had he signed a five-year deal, like Torii Hunter, he would have been worth $110 million [UPDATE: I found a slight mistake in my initial calculation, and the actual estimate is $108 million.] This is the type of deal Jones missed out on. If Jones does tank, you don’t want to be known as the GM who agreed to it. Fans can live with a two-year mistake.
My numbers are higher than what he got, but not too far off. I wonder if he would have gotten more had his 2007 happened in 2006. Any GM signing Jones has to be wary that 2007 might have indicated a new performance level. Though teams were cautious, I think when you look at his body of work and the shape of his 2007 numbers, there is too much upside there to ignore. The Dodgers have hired a better player than Hunter at about the same price, and without the long-term commitment. I think it’s a good deal for them. I’ll let them handle the log-jam in the outfield.
Jones comes out looking good, too. He gets some big-time money and has the opportunity to hit the free agent market again while he is still relatively young. Like most Braves fans, I grew up disliking the Dodgers, but I will be rooting hard for Andruw. He took a lot of heat in Atlanta for things he didn’t deserve, like not living up to unrealistic expectations. I’ll be sure to get an outfield seat when he comes to Atlanta and I will applaud him.
J.C. Bradbury is an economist and associate professor at Kennesaw State University in metropolitan Atlanta. He is the author of The Baseball Economist and has operated Sabernomics.com since March 2004.
December 6th, 2007 at 11:44 am
He’s always been a special player and I believe he’ll fit in very well with the Dodger’s culture. Given that he started so young and therefore will have great counting stats, has so many Gold Gloves, and has so far a couple of truly great seasons, I wonder if and when he makes the HOF.
December 6th, 2007 at 7:07 pm
I’m with you, JC. I wish nothing but the best for Andruw. It’s too bad the Braves didn’t offer him arbitration.
December 7th, 2007 at 2:39 am
Agreed: I’ve always liked Andruw, and his move to L.A. won’t change that. All the same, I think he deserved more years and more dollars for his complete body of work — Hunter’s, in comparison, is quite pale.
December 7th, 2007 at 9:01 am
Fans always criticized Andruw for not being Ken Griffey Jr. but he is a hell of a player. Better than Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells, Aaron Rowand and Mike Cameron.
In the end the Dodgers made a good deal but so did the Braves. If the choice was Texiera or Jones they chose wisely.
I’m slowly starting to condition myself to the sight of a slap and run center fielder for the near term.
December 7th, 2007 at 5:08 pm
I wish Andruw the best but it was time to part ways. If the Braves offered arb and he took it, he would be making more than Chipper, Smoltz, and Teixera–all better players. I’m a lot more skeptical than JC about his ability to bounce back (although I do think a lot of his problems last year were injury-related) but, even if he does, I’m not sure his “normal” year (ie, 35-40 homeruns, not 50) is enough to justify the salary for the Braves. It might well be good enough for the Dodger. At any rate, Andruw will still be able to collect cars.
And I disagree about the unrealistic expectations. I don’t think people expected him to be Griffey (although his minor league numbers would have suggested that) or Mays but I think we expected more offensive consistency than we got. He carried the team for awhile in 2005 when Chipper got hurt but, other than that year, he was never a dominant player. I’m sure I’m being simplistic about this and, obviously his defense adds a lot of value but he certainly was never the best player on the team. Having said that I do think Andruw received a lot of unfair criticism last year for ostensibly “not hustling” or not being intense enough or whatever when he obviously played hurt most of the year.