What is Mark Teixeira Going to Get?

With spring training underway, the big story for the Atlanta Braves is whether or not the team can sign its star slugger Mark Teixeira to a long-term deal. Teixeira will be a free agent after the 2008 season, and he will play this season for $12.5 million. The word is that the Braves would like to sign Teixeira to an extension soon. Neither Teixeira nor is agent Scott Boras are stupid, and they will only agree to a contract that will approximate his price on the free agent market. Tex might be willing to take a little less now to insure against and injury or simply because he likes playing for the Braves, but his estimated open-market value is a good place to start.

So, what will it take to keep him? Texeira isn’t going to be cheap. According to David O’Brien:

Some believe agent Scott Boras could land Teixeira a six- or seven-year deal worth $25 million or more annually, considering the other contracts that have been handed out in recent years and Teixeira’s age and all-around skills.

Using his past three years of performance, aging, and the growth of MLB salaries (based on the method in my book—paperback out on Tuesday!), I estimate that he will garner a contract of approximately $26.82 million for a six-year deal following the 2008 season. This estimate appears to be in line with the rumors.

I think that the Braves may be able to get him in the low-twenties if they can reach a deal before the season starts. I’m not sure if the Braves are going to be willing to go that high.

8 Responses “What is Mark Teixeira Going to Get?”

  1. Kyle James says:

    I’ve been waiting for you to calculate this one… Oh man… 25+mil a year… WOW… that’s not good for the Braves. Let’s hope this new ownership opens up their wallets a little.

  2. Buddy Selig says:

    Hey, I have an idea, JC. Maybe Fulton County should pass a new hotel tax in order to fund Teixeira’s new contract.
    A pretty justified use of taxpayer money, I think. Local economic spillover effects, ya know?

  3. Jason S. says:

    The Braves will NEVER EVER pay that kind of money. They won’t even go as high as $20 million for him.

    Bye bye Tex. It was nice having you here. Tex joins the long line of Braves rental players that stay a couple of seasons and move on for real money elsewhere.

  4. mraver says:

    I’m pretty shocked that your system see Tex as being worth more than Santana over the next six years, espeically given that Teixeira has missed far more time than Santana thus far and is only a year younger. And Santana certainly seems like a more “unique” quantity, being that he’s the best player to play a position in very high demand. I guess I see it. Still, seems like a lot.

  5. Ron says:

    If the Braves could run a $150-200 million payroll like some teams, then they could consider it. But with a payroll in the neighborhood of $100 million and considering their success at producing quality position players from their farm system, spending $25+ million/year on one player just doesn’t make sense.

  6. Mac says:

    Bill James wrote that he thinks Teixeira is the best bet to win the MVP this year. That would probably drive up his price a little bit.

  7. David says:

    Actually, if your farm system’s good enough, it’s not a terrible idea. Mike Hampton will be off the books, after all. Although if Atlanta really wanted to break the bank this offseason, CC Sabathia would be a better pick.

  8. mraver says:

    Well, one thing that’s important to remember is the Braves will have a lot of cash to spend on the FA market next year, even barring a payroll increase (which I find likely). They’ll have 12.5M from Tex off the books, 8M from Glavine, and 8-9M from Hampton (if you believe what the Braves have said about the way they handled his contract). So they’ll definitely have the money to sign him for $20+M and maybe still add another starter.

    But what will really determine our course in the FA (or possibly trade) market next year is how Jurrjens, James, and JoJo (and I guess Bennett) do this year. If all three look good enough to be solid players in the rotation, maybe we don’t have to go looking for a FA SP (or trade for one). If that’s the case, then we might be able to spend more money than we otherwise would want to on Teixeira. I guess the wild card there is Frenchy, since he could either sign a contract like McCann’s or start getting raises through arbitration.