What Can We Take Away From Spring Training?

March 30, 2008 By: JC Category: Braves

Before anyone freaks out, I just want to make it clear that I don’t put much stock in spring training statistics. However, it is fun to see what the first month of quasi-baseball games has produced, especially given the fan/media perceptions from the pre-season. Here are my thoughts on a few Braves players and what their spring stats say to me.

Jeff Francoeur (.242/.266/.371): None of these numbers bother me, even though they are not good. They are well within the variation we would expect based on past performance. What worries me is that Francoeur suggested that he was working on increasing his walks and homers. So far he has homered and walked once. I would rather see Frenchy bat .100 and walk five times than what he put up. Homers are a bit harder to come by, so you can’t read much into his one homer in 62 at-bats. Still, I’m not buying the break-out hype. I see no reason to change my expectation that Francoeur appears to be settling into a career as an adequate right fielder, not an All-Star. If he was working on something in spring training, it didn’t take. If he can’t walk more than once in the spring, his goal of 60 is probably out of reach.

Yunel Escobar (.361/.394/.508): He continued his hot play from last season. It’s certainly not a bad sign, but I still expect a sub-800 OPS.

Gregor Blanco (.326/.464/.442): Probably the biggest surprise in camp. No one thought he had a chance to make this club going into spring training. If he could add any power to his game, he’d be a useful player. He’ll be gone soon unless he pulls a Willie Harris.

Jair Jurrjens (5.03 ERA): Jurrjens has been praised highly in the Atlanta media, and he has made the team’s starting rotation. There is no denying that the kid has potential, but it is way too early to expect his arrival in the big leagues to be permanent. In 19 2/3 innings pitched he struck out nine, walked nine, and gave up no homers. Based on his minor league numbers, I don’t think he’s quite ready for the big show. It will be interesting to see how long he lasts. If Chuck James is healthy, expect him to replace Jurrjens before the All-Star break. I like Jurrjens, but he needs more time in the oven.

Jeff Bennett (1.93 ERA): The ERA is pretty but there is nothing special to see here. Five strikeouts, six walks, and a hit batter in 14 innings. At least he didn’t give up any home runs.

Anyway, I’m glad that the regular season is finally here. I think the Braves have a team capable of making the playoffs. It should be a fun season. Go Braves!

4 Responses to “ What Can We Take Away From Spring Training? ”

  1. # 1 Cyril Morong Says:
    March 30th, 2008 at 11:55 am

    John Dewan’s stat of the week had something on how spring training stats might indicate something. Here is what he said, followed by the link. The link has a list of possible breakout players.

    “A few years ago we discovered that there is a way to use spring training stats to predict future performance. We took all spring training hitters and found that, as expected, about half of them do better than their career norms in the upcoming season, and about half of them do worse than their career norms. However, when we chose only those players doing exceptionally well in spring training, we found that about three-fourths of them performed better than their career average during the upcoming season.

    Our definition of “exceptionally well” was slugging 100 points higher in spring training than their previous career slugging percentage.”

    http://www.actasports.com/sow.php?id=164

  2. # 2 Hill Says:
    March 30th, 2008 at 3:01 pm

    Of course I might tend to be a bit biased when say every year we’ll win the Series this fall but it seems that Jayson Stark has my back.

    http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/preview08/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=3320120

  3. # 3 Jason S. Says:
    March 31st, 2008 at 7:25 am

    I totally agree about Jair Jurrjens. A quick survey online seems to indicate that some of the blogs are a little surprised by this one too.

  4. # 4 Marc Schneider Says:
    March 31st, 2008 at 8:49 am

    I see nothing to suggest that Francouer is anything more than what JC says–an adequate right fielder. I think he may well end up being one of the most overrated players in baseball.

    The Braves are capable of making the playoffs in a very mediocre league but I don’t think much more. In Search of Being OK seems to be the Braves motto these days.

← Sabernomics Is Four Years Old
What are Managers Worth? →
  • Welcome

    • RSS
    • Main
    • Sabernomics FAQ
    • Comments Policy
    • JC's Homepage
    • MySpace Page
    • Facebook me!


    Join my blog network
    on Facebook
    Blog Networks

  • About

    You Avatar J.C. Bradbury is an economist and associate professor at Kennesaw State University in metropolitan Atlanta. He is the author of The Baseball Economist and has operated Sabernomics.com since March 2004.

  • Recent Posts

    • A Response to My Critique of the Mitchell Report Study
    • The Relevance of Kenerly’s Ownership Stake
    • Gwinnett’s Phantom Menace Revealed
    • More on “Democracy”
    • “Democracy” at Work
  • Recent Comments

    • Angry in Gwinnett on The Relevance of Kenerly’s Ownership Stake
    • Don S on Gwinnett’s Phantom Menace Revealed
    • Jack on Gwinnett’s Phantom Menace Revealed
    • CG Hudson on More on “Democracy”
    • Don S on Gwinnett’s Phantom Menace Revealed
  • Calendar

    March 2008
    M T W T F S S
    « Feb   Apr »
     12
    3456789
    10111213141516
    17181920212223
    24252627282930
    31  
  • Archives

    • September 2008
    • August 2008
    • July 2008
    • June 2008
    • May 2008
    • April 2008
    • March 2008
    • February 2008
    • January 2008
    • December 2007
    • November 2007
    • October 2007
    • September 2007
    • August 2007
    • July 2007
    • June 2007
    • May 2007
    • April 2007
    • March 2007
    • February 2007
    • January 2007
    • December 2006
    • November 2006
    • October 2006
    • September 2006
    • August 2006
    • July 2006
    • June 2006
    • May 2006
    • April 2006
    • March 2006
    • February 2006
    • January 2006
    • December 2005
    • November 2005
    • October 2005
    • September 2005
    • August 2005
    • July 2005
    • June 2005
    • May 2005
    • April 2005
    • March 2005
    • February 2005
    • January 2005
    • December 2004
    • November 2004
    • October 2004
    • September 2004
    • August 2004
    • July 2004
    • June 2004
    • May 2004
    • April 2004
    • March 2004
  • Categories

    • Book Review
    • Braves
    • Business
    • Contests
    • Economics
    • Events
    • Fielding
    • Football
    • General
    • Growth Hormone (HGH)
    • Gwinnett Braves
    • Hall of Fame
    • Hitting
    • JC's Book
    • Mailbox
    • Managing
    • Media
    • Moneyball
    • Murphy for Cooperstown
    • People
    • Pitching
    • Sabermetrics
    • Scouting
    • Steroids
  • Meta

    • Log in
    • Entries RSS
    • Comments RSS
    • WordPress.org
  • Stats



    Wikio - Top of the Blogs - Sports



  • Spam Blocked

    119,340 spam comments
    blocked by
    Akismet
    • My Book

      The Baseball Economist
      • Reviews
      • Errata
      • Order
      • Amazon.com
      • Barnes & Noble
      • Books-a-Million
      • Booksense.com
      • Borders
      • Powell's
      • Penguin
      • Amazon.ca
      • Chapters.indigo.ca
      • Kindle


    • Subscribe to Sabernomics on your cell phone
    • Baseball Blogs

      • Aaron’s Baseball Blog
      • Ballbug
      • Ballhype
      • Baseball Analysts
      • Baseball Crank
      • Baseball Digest Daily
      • Baseball Evolution
      • Baseball Graphs
      • Baseball Musings
      • Baseball Primer
      • Baseball Prospectus
      • Baseball Toaster
      • Beyond the Boxscore
      • BR.com’s Sports Reference Blog
      • Dan Agonistes
      • Fantasy Baseball Generals
      • Futility Infielder
      • Hardball Report
      • Kaplan’s Baseball Bookshelf
      • Mets Geek
      • Minor League Ball
      • MLB Trade Rumors
      • Rob Neyer
      • Shysterball
      • Sturgeon General’s Report
      • SwingTraining
      • The Baseball Project
      • The Hardball Times
      • The Southpaw
      • Tom’s Bombs
      • VorosMcCracken.com
    • Baseball Stats

      • Baseball America
      • Baseball-Reference
      • Cot’s Baseball Contracts
      • ESPN MLB
      • First Inning
      • Hardball Dollars
      • Hit Tracker
      • Lahman Baseball Archive
      • Retrosheet
      • The Baseball Cube
    • Braves Blogs

      • Braves Journal
      • Braves-Nation
      • Chop Nation
      • Chop-n-Change
      • Home of the Braves
      • Talking Chop
      • The Launching Pad
      • The Tomahawk
      • Velcro Vernacluar
    • Braves Stats

      • Atlanta
      • Danville
      • Mississippi
      • Myrtle Beach
      • Richmond
      • Rome
    • Football

      • Football Commentary
      • PFR Blog
      • Pro-Football-Reference
    • General Blogs

      • Art De Vany
      • Cafe Hayek
      • Division of Labour
      • Everyday Econ
      • Freakonomics
      • Greg Mankiw
      • Heavy Lifting
      • John Wright
      • Marginal Revolution
      • Reid Promotions
      • Selling Waves
      • The Dish
      • The Mint Julep
      • WikiKnitting
    • Sports Blogs

      • Deadspin
      • Heels, Sox, & Steelers
      • Offwing Opinion
      • Sports Blogs Daily
      • Sports Law
    • Sports Econ Blogs

      • Division of Labour
      • Heavy Lifting
      • Market Power
      • Sports Quant
      • The Sports Economist
      • Wages of Wins


    Sabernomics © 2007 All Rights Reserved. Using WordPress 2.5.1 Engine
    Entries and Comments.

    Prosumer 1.4 made by Nurudin Jauhari