I understand the valuation process of the market. What I was saying was that if we can’t get a decent return (Conor Jackson + 1 prospect on the level of Feliz or Jones) then why not hold onto him and see what he can produce for us, and take the two top picks in compensation. If 1.4 years of Tex, and 0.4 of Mahay, was worth 5 good prospects, then 0.4 is worth more than one good player (especially if it is anywhere near the 0.4 that he ended with last season.) A straight up deal doesn’t seem worth it, unless, as you have, you’re throwing in the towel on this season regardless. Has anyone heard any other names that might be included in any such Conor Jackson deal? Brooks Brown seems like a good fit. Or a Barry Enright perhaps? Brett Anderson? Gerardo Parra? Reynaldo Navarro? Arizona should be able to part with one of these guys if they want the most productive player in baseball over the ’07 stretch run for their ’08 run.

As for giving up, here’s some math:

The Mets are currently on pace to win 87 games, leaving the Braves the task of going 39-22, or a .639 winning percentage over their last 61 games to force a playoff. Likely? No. Possible? Absolutely. Lots of things happen over the months of August and September. Remember on July 26, 2007 the Colorado Rockies were in 4th place and 5.5 games out in their division. I think we all remember where they were in October: Fenway Park. Remember 1914! Then again, I’m sure you have some new fangled stat that makes winning percentages irrelevant, so this probably won’t sway you.

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Still, I think the Braves would be better off spending, say, $10 million on a decent 1st baseman and have $10 million leftover to spend somewhere else (left field?) rather than spend $20 million on Tex.

(In fairness, I haven’t really studied the upcoming free agent market.)

His value is not as high as you think it is. You can’t use the trade that brought him here to assign value to him this year. He is worth whatever someone will pay for him. His value was higher then because there was another year on his contract. It’s not as high now because he’s a FA after this year.

The Braves aren’t making the playoffs this year. Do the math. They have three teams in front of them and the WC is coming from the NL Central. They aren’t sneaking in the back door.

Quit using bad stats and I’ll quit taking “cheap shots” at you.

Rick: Would I prefer Jackson over 2 top draft picks, certainly. Would I prefer that the Braves make a real run and maybe even reach the playoffs and then I get two top draft picks if I’m not able to sign him, absolutely. You’re probably going to make up those millions with the additional gate from an extended playoff push, and definitely will if we sneak in the back door.

I agree the only way we draw interest is by winning, but Tex gives us a better chance to win this year than Jackson, and I’m not going to give up that edge without some additional compensation. Remember what Tex put up after we got him last year? Astronomical production by any measure.

BTW, thanks for the cheap shot. Jackson’s RP: 139 in 140 games in ’06, 101 in 130 games in ’07, and 100 in 90 games so far this year. That last one certainly makes me reconsider, but I’d still need at least one more quality prospect. Remember we shipped off 6 decent-great prospects to get him just a year ago, his value shouldn’t have fallen that far.

Keep in mind that, if Tex isn’t resigned, there aren’t many other options for 1B in the Braves organization (we all remember the Thorman experiment, I guess Kala Kaaihue could be a possibility). Obviously someone else could be signed, but that’s no sure thing either.

I’d jump at an offer of Jackson and a bucket of baseballs.

I would much rather trade Teixeira for a proven MLB player, at relatively low cost,that will be around for a few years than a couple of draft picks that will take millions to sign and develop and then might not work out.

The only way “interest will be generated about the team” is if they win. Having Mark Teixeira on the team is not going to generate any more fan interest than there currently is. And by fan interest, I mean ticket sales.

There is no way that the Braves will sign Teixeira for what the Mets, Yankees etc will be able to sign him for. It’s not going to happen. They have too many other needs that need to be addressed. Freeing up salary by trading Teixeira will help them address those needs.

Rumors have it that the Rockies have moved from being possible sellers to likely buyers, and they’re only a half game closer to first in their, albeit weaker, division.

Now I’m not saying a real run is likely, but I’m certainly going to wait until after this weekend’s series to declare whether or not Tex SHOULD be traded. If we keep him the worst case scenario is that he walks at the end of the year and we get two high draft picks. Keeping him around not only will generate more interest in the team, and possibly contribute to an exciting run, but it might give all parties involved just the little more time needed to realize what a perfect fit he is with the town/team. I do seem to remember a high-profile Boras client taking a similar approach last offseason.

It’s not all that much, granted, but from what I’ve heard the offers coming in aren’t all that better. Conor Jackson might be a good fit, but what does Arizona have to offer on top of that? Any other reasonable rumors out there that I haven’t come across yet?

I’m also trying to understand DOB’s rebuttal. Does he think a guy who hit .324/.390/.703 over 10 games isn’t good? Or that Chipper and Greg Norton getting one RBI each in an 8-2 loss means they “carried” the team in that game? I’m confused.