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	<title>Comments on: Clearing Some Things Up</title>
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	<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/08/clearing-some-things-up/</link>
	<description>Economic Thinking about Baseball</description>
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		<title>By: Mike C.</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/08/clearing-some-things-up/comment-page-1/#comment-104201</link>
		<dc:creator>Mike C.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 25 Aug 2008 22:49:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=960#comment-104201</guid>
		<description>Just found this site today. I&#039;m enjoying it already. I became a Braves fan in 1958 at the age of nine. It was all because of Hank Aaron. I would like to agree with Marv&#039;s feelings. One WS win was not enough!

The professor makes some valid points. It is a pragmatic view I believe and the Braves need to deal with realities and not hopes and dreams. This team was deflated the day Tex left and it shows in their play on the field. Kotchman needs to be retained though at least another year or 2. Bench KJ and let Prado play the next 5 weeks. Bench Frenchy and let him reflect. He is late on fastballs because of his swing. It&#039;s not very good and has holes. Carlos Pena asked Manny Ramirez the secret to being a good hitter. Ramirez replied &quot;see the ball&quot;. Pena was upset about that answer but then tried it with another Ramirez attribute, relax. See the ball, relax. Pena has been hitting much better since then. Kotsay should be signed for a 1yr. deal. Leave Glavine off the club even if he generates income. Sign Smoltz if healthy and let him close. Trade Soriano when he proves healthy. Cleveland would be a good place for him. Send Boyer to another planet. His fastball is too straight. Sign 2 FA pitchers and go after a hitter who can help Chipper and Brian but don&#039;t screw up the future by overpaying.. Take the lumps next season with a foundation set up for the future. Then expose the kids in 2010. The Braves will have a losing record in 2009.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Just found this site today. I&#8217;m enjoying it already. I became a Braves fan in 1958 at the age of nine. It was all because of Hank Aaron. I would like to agree with Marv&#8217;s feelings. One WS win was not enough!</p>
<p>The professor makes some valid points. It is a pragmatic view I believe and the Braves need to deal with realities and not hopes and dreams. This team was deflated the day Tex left and it shows in their play on the field. Kotchman needs to be retained though at least another year or 2. Bench KJ and let Prado play the next 5 weeks. Bench Frenchy and let him reflect. He is late on fastballs because of his swing. It&#8217;s not very good and has holes. Carlos Pena asked Manny Ramirez the secret to being a good hitter. Ramirez replied &#8220;see the ball&#8221;. Pena was upset about that answer but then tried it with another Ramirez attribute, relax. See the ball, relax. Pena has been hitting much better since then. Kotsay should be signed for a 1yr. deal. Leave Glavine off the club even if he generates income. Sign Smoltz if healthy and let him close. Trade Soriano when he proves healthy. Cleveland would be a good place for him. Send Boyer to another planet. His fastball is too straight. Sign 2 FA pitchers and go after a hitter who can help Chipper and Brian but don&#8217;t screw up the future by overpaying.. Take the lumps next season with a foundation set up for the future. Then expose the kids in 2010. The Braves will have a losing record in 2009.</p>
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		<title>By: Cliff</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/08/clearing-some-things-up/comment-page-1/#comment-104171</link>
		<dc:creator>Cliff</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 24 Aug 2008 14:22:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=960#comment-104171</guid>
		<description>Scott,

Francoeur&#039;s RBI for 2006 and 7 were also heavily driven by a batting average with runners in scoring position significantl better than in other at bats.  Over time, most of the time, a player&#039;s &quot;clutch&quot; ability will average out (or go to sightly below his other stats).  This year, Francoeur is hitting worse with runners on, bases loaded, runners in scoring positoon, etc. 

If you are batting sixth for a team where 3 (Chipper) is a 450 to 500 obp, 4, (Teix) is a 400 to 450 obp, and 5 (McCann) is a 400 obp, and, if you NEVER get or take a day or inning off, then if you have ANY BUSINESS AT ALL in the ML&#039;s you ought to get close to 100 rbi.  If you are a good producer, you ought to be near 125.  </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Scott,</p>
<p>Francoeur&#8217;s RBI for 2006 and 7 were also heavily driven by a batting average with runners in scoring position significantl better than in other at bats.  Over time, most of the time, a player&#8217;s &#8220;clutch&#8221; ability will average out (or go to sightly below his other stats).  This year, Francoeur is hitting worse with runners on, bases loaded, runners in scoring positoon, etc. </p>
<p>If you are batting sixth for a team where 3 (Chipper) is a 450 to 500 obp, 4, (Teix) is a 400 to 450 obp, and 5 (McCann) is a 400 obp, and, if you NEVER get or take a day or inning off, then if you have ANY BUSINESS AT ALL in the ML&#8217;s you ought to get close to 100 rbi.  If you are a good producer, you ought to be near 125.  </p>
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		<title>By: JC</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/08/clearing-some-things-up/comment-page-1/#comment-104167</link>
		<dc:creator>JC</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 23 Aug 2008 12:29:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=960#comment-104167</guid>
		<description>It doesn&#039;t matter whom you replace these guys with. If you are going to lose, LOSE. Go get Jonny Schuerholz, Mike Hessman, and Brian Jordan. It doesn&#039;t matter. Trading capable players is about saving for the future. Eat ramen noodles today so that you get steak and lobster when you take your future wife out on your first date.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It doesn&#8217;t matter whom you replace these guys with. If you are going to lose, LOSE. Go get Jonny Schuerholz, Mike Hessman, and Brian Jordan. It doesn&#8217;t matter. Trading capable players is about saving for the future. Eat ramen noodles today so that you get steak and lobster when you take your future wife out on your first date.</p>
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		<title>By: mravery</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/08/clearing-some-things-up/comment-page-1/#comment-104165</link>
		<dc:creator>mravery</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 23 Aug 2008 06:47:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=960#comment-104165</guid>
		<description>JC-

Who would you have the Braves use at 3B, 2B and 1B in 2010? I&#039;ll grant the premise that the Braves are unlikely to contend in 2009, but I don&#039;t see why that means the Braves should look to move a star 3B and decent players at 2B and 1B, all of which would be around for the 2010 season and possibly beyond. 

Personally, I think they should work out an extension for Chipper through like 2012 (maybe with vesting options or something; Chipper will give the Braves a better deal than he will anyone else). Kotchman and KJ are expendable and should be moved if a decent deal presents itself. But I don&#039;t think trading them should be priorities; there&#039;s not really anyone to step in for either in 2009 or even 2010, so if you trade them, you&#039;ll just have to go back and trade/sign someone else to play in their stead. Maybe the Prado at 2B idea has merit, but he doesn&#039;t seem like he has much potential as a full-time player. 

I see even less reason to deal Infante. I really doubt someone will give the Braves much for him prospect-wise, and at the same time, I wouldn&#039;t be surprised to see him get extended rather cheaply to cover a &quot;contending&quot; year or two.

Also, why no Mike Gonzalez? If anything, he seems like the best guy on this team to trade if we&#039;re punting 2009. Not only will he be out of Braves control after next year, but he&#039;s actually something that other teams value:  a shut-down closer. 

What I&#039;d like to see the Braves do this offseason basically amounts to &quot;nothing stupid&quot;. A long-term deal to a quality FA would be okay, but please, no Tex-like trades where we give up tons of value from the minor leagues for a year or two of a player who will later leave. Sign some minor FAs that don&#039;t cost draft picks and can patch holes for a year or two. No stupid bullpen contracts, use the draft to build.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>JC-</p>
<p>Who would you have the Braves use at 3B, 2B and 1B in 2010? I&#8217;ll grant the premise that the Braves are unlikely to contend in 2009, but I don&#8217;t see why that means the Braves should look to move a star 3B and decent players at 2B and 1B, all of which would be around for the 2010 season and possibly beyond. </p>
<p>Personally, I think they should work out an extension for Chipper through like 2012 (maybe with vesting options or something; Chipper will give the Braves a better deal than he will anyone else). Kotchman and KJ are expendable and should be moved if a decent deal presents itself. But I don&#8217;t think trading them should be priorities; there&#8217;s not really anyone to step in for either in 2009 or even 2010, so if you trade them, you&#8217;ll just have to go back and trade/sign someone else to play in their stead. Maybe the Prado at 2B idea has merit, but he doesn&#8217;t seem like he has much potential as a full-time player. </p>
<p>I see even less reason to deal Infante. I really doubt someone will give the Braves much for him prospect-wise, and at the same time, I wouldn&#8217;t be surprised to see him get extended rather cheaply to cover a &#8220;contending&#8221; year or two.</p>
<p>Also, why no Mike Gonzalez? If anything, he seems like the best guy on this team to trade if we&#8217;re punting 2009. Not only will he be out of Braves control after next year, but he&#8217;s actually something that other teams value:  a shut-down closer. </p>
<p>What I&#8217;d like to see the Braves do this offseason basically amounts to &#8220;nothing stupid&#8221;. A long-term deal to a quality FA would be okay, but please, no Tex-like trades where we give up tons of value from the minor leagues for a year or two of a player who will later leave. Sign some minor FAs that don&#8217;t cost draft picks and can patch holes for a year or two. No stupid bullpen contracts, use the draft to build.</p>
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		<title>By: Rick</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/08/clearing-some-things-up/comment-page-1/#comment-104163</link>
		<dc:creator>Rick</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Aug 2008 18:13:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=960#comment-104163</guid>
		<description>You can&#039;t use OPS+ to compare one player to another? OPS+ can&#039;t give you an idea about how effective a player is? When did that happen?
What does the number of RBIs that a player has tell you about him? RbIs are dependent on the number of chances that a player has to drive in runs. If a player is in a different spot in the line up he won&#039;t have as many chances to drive in a run as he would in another spot in a line up. Now, if you combine the number of RBIs that a player has along with say his BA and OBP and or his OPS when there are runners on base in front of him that would tell you something about that player, but just talking about RBIs doesn&#039;t really tell you anything other than he got hits and walks when there were runners on. OPS+ gives me a pretty good idea about how a player did, or did not do, at the plate regardless of the situation. I can then use that to compare him to any player of any era. 
For instance, I can use that to compare him to Brad Hawpe or Juan Rivera, his two closest player comps on Baseball Reference, and see that there is a glimmer of hope for him, but only if he can actually recognize what a strike and a ball are and learns when to swing and when to not swing at a pitch. Now if he has a career like Rivera he will never really be more than an average player. If he gets lucky and has a career like Hawpe then the Braves will also be lucky that his value is more than likely at ZERO for any other team and they will be forced to keep him and he will actually become a decent player. At this point, I really doubt that will happen though. Of course Hawpe&#039;s stats are inflated by Coors and he&#039;s more in his prime now.
You can also look at Runs Created and RC/27 and a few other stats to get an idea of a player&#039;s worth.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You can&#8217;t use OPS+ to compare one player to another? OPS+ can&#8217;t give you an idea about how effective a player is? When did that happen?<br />
What does the number of RBIs that a player has tell you about him? RbIs are dependent on the number of chances that a player has to drive in runs. If a player is in a different spot in the line up he won&#8217;t have as many chances to drive in a run as he would in another spot in a line up. Now, if you combine the number of RBIs that a player has along with say his BA and OBP and or his OPS when there are runners on base in front of him that would tell you something about that player, but just talking about RBIs doesn&#8217;t really tell you anything other than he got hits and walks when there were runners on. OPS+ gives me a pretty good idea about how a player did, or did not do, at the plate regardless of the situation. I can then use that to compare him to any player of any era.<br />
For instance, I can use that to compare him to Brad Hawpe or Juan Rivera, his two closest player comps on Baseball Reference, and see that there is a glimmer of hope for him, but only if he can actually recognize what a strike and a ball are and learns when to swing and when to not swing at a pitch. Now if he has a career like Rivera he will never really be more than an average player. If he gets lucky and has a career like Hawpe then the Braves will also be lucky that his value is more than likely at ZERO for any other team and they will be forced to keep him and he will actually become a decent player. At this point, I really doubt that will happen though. Of course Hawpe&#8217;s stats are inflated by Coors and he&#8217;s more in his prime now.<br />
You can also look at Runs Created and RC/27 and a few other stats to get an idea of a player&#8217;s worth.</p>
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		<title>By: Marv Kleeman</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/08/clearing-some-things-up/comment-page-1/#comment-104162</link>
		<dc:creator>Marv Kleeman</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Aug 2008 17:11:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=960#comment-104162</guid>
		<description>Dear J.C. Bradbury:

I am a &quot;fanatic&quot; Atlanta Braves fan who was born, grew up and live in N.Y.C.  Can you believe that?

Some comments about the current state of the Braves.  I fear the Braves are headed for a 15 - 20 year funk; just like they experienced from 1973 -1991.  It happens.  My only regret as a Braves fan is that we didn&#039;t cash in our chips.  

Winning the Division Title fourteen years in a row and only having one World Series title to show for it is unacceptable.  It leaves a bad taste in my mouth as a Braves fan; a sense of being &quot;unfulfilled&quot;.  We should have won a minimum of two World Series titles during that span at the very least but more likely three.  Then I could better accept the Braves plummeting rock bottom.

As for 2009; I say leave the team as is.  We have nothing to trade.  Last year we were able to trade Edgar Renteria because we had Yunel Escobar waiting in the wings.  

All our players are young and unproven and will not net anything worthwhile in a trade so we might as well keep them.  One exception.  (Maybe we can send Mark Kotsay to a playoff contender since we have Gregor Blanco and Josh Anderson to play center in 2009 and Mark Kotsay does not hit with enough power to be a corner outfielder.)

2009
Casey Kotchmann (1B)
Kelly Johnson (2B - I would consider moving him to left field but he must hit for more power) 
Martin Prado (2B)
Yunel Escobar (ss)
Gregor Blanco or Josh Anderson (CF)
Jeff Francoeur (RF)

And just keep our fingers crossed they continue to develop.  J. C. Bradbury; if we enter the free agent market we are going to get ripped off.  It is a very sparse market and we will be forced to ovepay.

My one regret J.C., is at the trade deadline we were not able to acquire Xavier Nady and stick him in left field.  He was the guy I really wanted.  I can&#039;t believe the Yankees were able to outbid us for Xavier Nady (along with Damaso Marte) with the putrid package they put together.  I think the Pirates were snookered by all the &quot;hype&quot; surrounding Jose Tabata and think he is the next Roberto Clemente.  

I would have offered a package of Brandon Jones, Brent Lillibridge, Chuck James and one &quot;elite&quot; prospect and one lesser one.  By &quot;elite&quot; prospect I mean someone like Cole Rohrbaugh or Jeff Locke or Tyler Flowers (not Jason Heyward).   

What do you think, J.C.

My name is Marv Kleeman and you contact me at 
MarvMJK@aol.com

Best Regards
 </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dear J.C. Bradbury:</p>
<p>I am a &#8220;fanatic&#8221; Atlanta Braves fan who was born, grew up and live in N.Y.C.  Can you believe that?</p>
<p>Some comments about the current state of the Braves.  I fear the Braves are headed for a 15 &#8211; 20 year funk; just like they experienced from 1973 -1991.  It happens.  My only regret as a Braves fan is that we didn&#8217;t cash in our chips.  </p>
<p>Winning the Division Title fourteen years in a row and only having one World Series title to show for it is unacceptable.  It leaves a bad taste in my mouth as a Braves fan; a sense of being &#8220;unfulfilled&#8221;.  We should have won a minimum of two World Series titles during that span at the very least but more likely three.  Then I could better accept the Braves plummeting rock bottom.</p>
<p>As for 2009; I say leave the team as is.  We have nothing to trade.  Last year we were able to trade Edgar Renteria because we had Yunel Escobar waiting in the wings.  </p>
<p>All our players are young and unproven and will not net anything worthwhile in a trade so we might as well keep them.  One exception.  (Maybe we can send Mark Kotsay to a playoff contender since we have Gregor Blanco and Josh Anderson to play center in 2009 and Mark Kotsay does not hit with enough power to be a corner outfielder.)</p>
<p>2009<br />
Casey Kotchmann (1B)<br />
Kelly Johnson (2B &#8211; I would consider moving him to left field but he must hit for more power) <br />
Martin Prado (2B)<br />
Yunel Escobar (ss)<br />
Gregor Blanco or Josh Anderson (CF)<br />
Jeff Francoeur (RF)</p>
<p>And just keep our fingers crossed they continue to develop.  J. C. Bradbury; if we enter the free agent market we are going to get ripped off.  It is a very sparse market and we will be forced to ovepay.</p>
<p>My one regret J.C., is at the trade deadline we were not able to acquire Xavier Nady and stick him in left field.  He was the guy I really wanted.  I can&#8217;t believe the Yankees were able to outbid us for Xavier Nady (along with Damaso Marte) with the putrid package they put together.  I think the Pirates were snookered by all the &#8221;hype&#8221; surrounding Jose Tabata and think he is the next Roberto Clemente.  </p>
<p>I would have offered a package of Brandon Jones, Brent Lillibridge, Chuck James and one &#8220;elite&#8221; prospect and one lesser one.  By &#8221;elite&#8221; prospect I mean someone like Cole Rohrbaugh or Jeff Locke or Tyler Flowers (not Jason Heyward).   </p>
<p>What do you think, J.C.</p>
<p>My name is Marv Kleeman and you contact me at <br />
<a href="mailto:MarvMJK@aol.com">MarvMJK@aol.com</a></p>
<p>Best Regards<br />
 </p>
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		<title>By: scott</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/08/clearing-some-things-up/comment-page-1/#comment-104161</link>
		<dc:creator>scott</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Aug 2008 16:58:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=960#comment-104161</guid>
		<description>I guess I would agree if OPS actually told you anything about a player.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I guess I would agree if OPS actually told you anything about a player.</p>
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		<title>By: Rick</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/08/clearing-some-things-up/comment-page-1/#comment-104160</link>
		<dc:creator>Rick</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Aug 2008 16:35:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=960#comment-104160</guid>
		<description>Kyle is correct. Merchandise revenue is split among all teams and the Players Association. The only time any team keeps all of the profit is when the merchandise is sold at a team owned store. 

But JC, Joe Morgan says that RBIs are a true measure of a player&#039;s worth and he&#039;s in the HoF!

His OPS+ for that year was 103, barely above league average.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Kyle is correct. Merchandise revenue is split among all teams and the Players Association. The only time any team keeps all of the profit is when the merchandise is sold at a team owned store. </p>
<p>But JC, Joe Morgan says that RBIs are a true measure of a player&#8217;s worth and he&#8217;s in the HoF!</p>
<p>His OPS+ for that year was 103, barely above league average.</p>
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		<title>By: JC</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/08/clearing-some-things-up/comment-page-1/#comment-104159</link>
		<dc:creator>JC</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Aug 2008 16:15:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=960#comment-104159</guid>
		<description>Right fielders with OPSes in the .740-.780 range don&#039;t impress me much.

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		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Right fielders with OPSes in the .740-.780 range don&#8217;t impress me much.</p>
<p><object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/mt7W6a_gQSM&#038;hl=en&#038;fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/mt7W6a_gQSM&#038;hl=en&#038;fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object></p>
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		<title>By: scott</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/08/clearing-some-things-up/comment-page-1/#comment-104158</link>
		<dc:creator>scott</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Aug 2008 15:51:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=960#comment-104158</guid>
		<description>JC, batting .293 and driving in over 100 runs isn&#039;t a good season?  What is it then?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>JC, batting .293 and driving in over 100 runs isn&#8217;t a good season?  What is it then?</p>
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