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	<title>Comments on: Looking Ahead</title>
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	<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/08/looking-ahead/</link>
	<description>Economic Thinking about Baseball</description>
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		<title>By: JC</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/08/looking-ahead/comment-page-1/#comment-104142</link>
		<dc:creator>JC</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Aug 2008 17:46:02 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>I have written a new post that addresses some issues discussed here. 

&lt;a href=&quot;../clearing-some-things-up/&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Clearing Some Things Up&lt;/a&gt;

I am closing the comments here, but you can leave additional comments in the new post.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I have written a new post that addresses some issues discussed here. </p>
<p><a href="../clearing-some-things-up/" rel="nofollow">Clearing Some Things Up</a></p>
<p>I am closing the comments here, but you can leave additional comments in the new post.</p>
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		<title>By: Wendy</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/08/looking-ahead/comment-page-1/#comment-104141</link>
		<dc:creator>Wendy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Aug 2008 17:32:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=959#comment-104141</guid>
		<description>I believe it&#039;s absurd to even diagnose next year as a &quot;just miss&quot; playoff season.  Who knows what Frank Wren will do this off season.  Rumors are rampant that he is in search for a power hitting outfielder and will more than likely go after one of the many free agent starting pitchers.  

While I do not believe it will be be in the form of CC or Sheets, I could easily see someone like Dempster or Garland coming to Atlanta.  We almost pulled off a trade for Jason Bay, thus I believe Wren will still be in search for that bat to boost the outfield via trade.

Chipper isn&#039;t going anywhere.  To even picture him in another uniform is absurd.  

An acquisition or two can make 2009 very interesting for the Braves.  

I personally believe that the offseason will be the most eventful for Atlanta in quite sometime.  Should be exciting to say the least.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I believe it&#8217;s absurd to even diagnose next year as a &#8220;just miss&#8221; playoff season.  Who knows what Frank Wren will do this off season.  Rumors are rampant that he is in search for a power hitting outfielder and will more than likely go after one of the many free agent starting pitchers.  </p>
<p>While I do not believe it will be be in the form of CC or Sheets, I could easily see someone like Dempster or Garland coming to Atlanta.  We almost pulled off a trade for Jason Bay, thus I believe Wren will still be in search for that bat to boost the outfield via trade.</p>
<p>Chipper isn&#8217;t going anywhere.  To even picture him in another uniform is absurd.  </p>
<p>An acquisition or two can make 2009 very interesting for the Braves.  </p>
<p>I personally believe that the offseason will be the most eventful for Atlanta in quite sometime.  Should be exciting to say the least.</p>
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		<title>By: Dustin</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/08/looking-ahead/comment-page-1/#comment-104140</link>
		<dc:creator>Dustin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Aug 2008 16:55:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=959#comment-104140</guid>
		<description>I&#039;m a big Chipper Jones fan, but a lot of what you said makes sense, assuming the Braves will let him go after 2010.  I don&#039;t think they will, and I think they would be foolish to do so, especially since Francoeur appears to be a bust waiting to happen, which should pretty much negate all of his current popularity in metro Atlanta.  I say keep Chipper, as I expect him to remain productive for the next 3-4 years anyway.

I believe you undervalue KJ.  HIs defense isn&#039;t as bad as people think, and you don&#039;t find many second basemen around the league that can match his career OPS ~.800.  And just because Cox values Prado, doesn&#039;t mean having Prado start is a bright idea.  I am anti-Cox, but I&#039;ll try not to let that bias my argument.  Prado is a solid defender, but his career OPS in the minors is ~.750, speaking purely from memory.  HIs play this year is an abberation, and I think if we played him everyday, and teams had a chance to scout him, they&#039;d find a singles hitter with a decent glove.  Not a bad little player to have on your bench, but not someone I would feel comfortably playing in my lineup which is already deficient in power.

I would trade Escobar.  The kid has a gun, and a decent glove, but much like Prado, he has no pop.  He projects to be another .750 OPS kid.  Again, not bad, but once arbitration kicks in, his salary will get inflated, and he&#039;ll become overpaid.  I say trade him before that happens.

As far as Francouer is concerned, you are spot on in your assessment.  The Braves have made their bed, and now they must lie in it.  There won&#039;t be much value in trading a guy like Francouer, but at the same time he&#039;s a detriment to his offense.  He should be soaking up time in Triple A, but as long as Bobby Cox is there that won&#039;t happen, which brings me to my last point.

Bobby Cox needs to retire.  I have never been a fan of his, but he does have some value as a good clubhouse manager.  His game management, strategy, and roster management, however, is horrid.  The overuse of relievers the past few years, the consistent platooning of KJ, despite the fact that he rakes lefties, and Cox&#039;s generaly insistence on playing the predictable lefty-righty matchups in late game situations is costing this team ballgames.  Not to mention, his unholy allegiance to Francouer which has ultimately done the kid more harm than good.  I don&#039;t think this team will be in any position to make the necessary changes until Cox has hung &#039;em up.  Having said that, 2009 is a complete waste.  There isn&#039;t enough coin to fill all the holes, and even if there were, it wouldn&#039;t be the smart move.  Quite frankly, this team should have undergone a overhaul 2 years ago, before the Teixeira trade went through. </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m a big Chipper Jones fan, but a lot of what you said makes sense, assuming the Braves will let him go after 2010.  I don&#8217;t think they will, and I think they would be foolish to do so, especially since Francoeur appears to be a bust waiting to happen, which should pretty much negate all of his current popularity in metro Atlanta.  I say keep Chipper, as I expect him to remain productive for the next 3-4 years anyway.</p>
<p>I believe you undervalue KJ.  HIs defense isn&#8217;t as bad as people think, and you don&#8217;t find many second basemen around the league that can match his career OPS ~.800.  And just because Cox values Prado, doesn&#8217;t mean having Prado start is a bright idea.  I am anti-Cox, but I&#8217;ll try not to let that bias my argument.  Prado is a solid defender, but his career OPS in the minors is ~.750, speaking purely from memory.  HIs play this year is an abberation, and I think if we played him everyday, and teams had a chance to scout him, they&#8217;d find a singles hitter with a decent glove.  Not a bad little player to have on your bench, but not someone I would feel comfortably playing in my lineup which is already deficient in power.</p>
<p>I would trade Escobar.  The kid has a gun, and a decent glove, but much like Prado, he has no pop.  He projects to be another .750 OPS kid.  Again, not bad, but once arbitration kicks in, his salary will get inflated, and he&#8217;ll become overpaid.  I say trade him before that happens.</p>
<p>As far as Francouer is concerned, you are spot on in your assessment.  The Braves have made their bed, and now they must lie in it.  There won&#8217;t be much value in trading a guy like Francouer, but at the same time he&#8217;s a detriment to his offense.  He should be soaking up time in Triple A, but as long as Bobby Cox is there that won&#8217;t happen, which brings me to my last point.</p>
<p>Bobby Cox needs to retire.  I have never been a fan of his, but he does have some value as a good clubhouse manager.  His game management, strategy, and roster management, however, is horrid.  The overuse of relievers the past few years, the consistent platooning of KJ, despite the fact that he rakes lefties, and Cox&#8217;s generaly insistence on playing the predictable lefty-righty matchups in late game situations is costing this team ballgames.  Not to mention, his unholy allegiance to Francouer which has ultimately done the kid more harm than good.  I don&#8217;t think this team will be in any position to make the necessary changes until Cox has hung &#8216;em up.  Having said that, 2009 is a complete waste.  There isn&#8217;t enough coin to fill all the holes, and even if there were, it wouldn&#8217;t be the smart move.  Quite frankly, this team should have undergone a overhaul 2 years ago, before the Teixeira trade went through. </p>
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		<title>By: scott</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/08/looking-ahead/comment-page-1/#comment-104139</link>
		<dc:creator>scott</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Aug 2008 15:29:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=959#comment-104139</guid>
		<description>Dan, if the Braves had kept Teixeira and Hudson had stayed healthy, they&#039;d be a .500 team...maybe.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dan, if the Braves had kept Teixeira and Hudson had stayed healthy, they&#8217;d be a .500 team&#8230;maybe.</p>
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		<title>By: H Stockton</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/08/looking-ahead/comment-page-1/#comment-104138</link>
		<dc:creator>H Stockton</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Aug 2008 14:33:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=959#comment-104138</guid>
		<description>During the various delays or rain outs this year I&#039;ve watched those &quot;In Their Own Words.&quot;  I watched the one with Chipper and liked most everything that I heard, but he did say something that has bothered me as this miserable season has progressed.  He was talking about the corporate environment in the clubhouse and expressed the idea that there have been players that didn&#039;t fit into the environment and they were moved along to other teams.

So as I&#039;m watching the Braves lose game after game and go a year with no one run wins on the road and see all those flags but only one championship, I think it&#039;s time for a major shakeup in the corporate environment.  Numbers aside, if Chipper is the chairman of the board in the clubhouse then it&#039;s time for buyout.  A change in leadership is in order (this would include Schurholz and Bobby).   Watch these guys...they show up like they&#039;re showing up for an 8 to 5 job.  Tex was that way, Glavine&#039;s that way, Chippers that way, KJ&#039;s that way.

I&#039;m not sure which players are out there that fit into the necessary role, but if there&#039;s a Kirk Gibson type available....that&#039;s the type needed.   Big Popi is that type of player, Wickman was initially that type of player, Pujols is that type of player.  There needs to be more guys in that clubhouse that have an attitude that says &quot;win more games or I&#039;m crackin&#039; skulls.&quot;  

The only guys I&#039;ve seen on this team that carry themselves that way is Escobar and McCann.

The first half of this year the stats indicated this team should have been about 10 games over .500, and they weren&#039;t close.  So more than numbers, there needs to be an enviromental change.    Find the players that fit the right role.

I like KJ, but if he strikes out looking at an indside fast ball then walks back to the dugout as if nothing happened one more time I&#039;m</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>During the various delays or rain outs this year I&#8217;ve watched those &#8220;In Their Own Words.&#8221;  I watched the one with Chipper and liked most everything that I heard, but he did say something that has bothered me as this miserable season has progressed.  He was talking about the corporate environment in the clubhouse and expressed the idea that there have been players that didn&#8217;t fit into the environment and they were moved along to other teams.</p>
<p>So as I&#8217;m watching the Braves lose game after game and go a year with no one run wins on the road and see all those flags but only one championship, I think it&#8217;s time for a major shakeup in the corporate environment.  Numbers aside, if Chipper is the chairman of the board in the clubhouse then it&#8217;s time for buyout.  A change in leadership is in order (this would include Schurholz and Bobby).   Watch these guys&#8230;they show up like they&#8217;re showing up for an 8 to 5 job.  Tex was that way, Glavine&#8217;s that way, Chippers that way, KJ&#8217;s that way.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m not sure which players are out there that fit into the necessary role, but if there&#8217;s a Kirk Gibson type available&#8230;.that&#8217;s the type needed.   Big Popi is that type of player, Wickman was initially that type of player, Pujols is that type of player.  There needs to be more guys in that clubhouse that have an attitude that says &#8220;win more games or I&#8217;m crackin&#8217; skulls.&#8221;  </p>
<p>The only guys I&#8217;ve seen on this team that carry themselves that way is Escobar and McCann.</p>
<p>The first half of this year the stats indicated this team should have been about 10 games over .500, and they weren&#8217;t close.  So more than numbers, there needs to be an enviromental change.    Find the players that fit the right role.</p>
<p>I like KJ, but if he strikes out looking at an indside fast ball then walks back to the dugout as if nothing happened one more time I&#8217;m</p>
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		<title>By: Dan Schlossberg</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/08/looking-ahead/comment-page-1/#comment-104137</link>
		<dc:creator>Dan Schlossberg</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Aug 2008 14:05:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=959#comment-104137</guid>
		<description>If the Braves had kept Teixeira, they would still be in the running for a wild-card spot THIS YEAR. Trading him -- for virtually no return -- was the worst thing that happened to the 2008 Braves. Injuries are acts of God but trades are acts of stupidity (in most cases). Chipper&#039;s average fell like a stone after Teixeira left and batting Infante or Kotsay in the cleanup spot made the team a laughingstock. No one could have predicted Francoeur&#039;s fall, especially following his hot start, but he seems to be picking it up again. And what about the loss of Matt Diaz for almost the entire season?

If all things go right, and Smoltz and Glavine are able to return healthy next year, the Braves could dump such awful fill-ins as Jeff Bennett and Julian Tavarez. That would make the 2009 staff look like this:

Starters: Jurrjens, Campillo, Morton, Reyes, Glavine or Hampton (plus
maybe Hudson in August or September)
Relievers: Smoltz, Gonzalez, Moylan, Soriano, maybe Boyer

The Braves would still need speed at the top of the lineup plus more power in the middle (preferably at first base and left field). I would send Francoeur to winter ball to get his stroke back and would try to find daily duty for Prado (maybe 2d base if Kelly Johnson goes back to LF).
I would also dump Casey Kotchman, whose awful NL debut looked even worse when Teixeira went on a tear with the Angels.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If the Braves had kept Teixeira, they would still be in the running for a wild-card spot THIS YEAR. Trading him &#8212; for virtually no return &#8212; was the worst thing that happened to the 2008 Braves. Injuries are acts of God but trades are acts of stupidity (in most cases). Chipper&#8217;s average fell like a stone after Teixeira left and batting Infante or Kotsay in the cleanup spot made the team a laughingstock. No one could have predicted Francoeur&#8217;s fall, especially following his hot start, but he seems to be picking it up again. And what about the loss of Matt Diaz for almost the entire season?</p>
<p>If all things go right, and Smoltz and Glavine are able to return healthy next year, the Braves could dump such awful fill-ins as Jeff Bennett and Julian Tavarez. That would make the 2009 staff look like this:</p>
<p>Starters: Jurrjens, Campillo, Morton, Reyes, Glavine or Hampton (plus<br />
maybe Hudson in August or September)<br />
Relievers: Smoltz, Gonzalez, Moylan, Soriano, maybe Boyer</p>
<p>The Braves would still need speed at the top of the lineup plus more power in the middle (preferably at first base and left field). I would send Francoeur to winter ball to get his stroke back and would try to find daily duty for Prado (maybe 2d base if Kelly Johnson goes back to LF).<br />
I would also dump Casey Kotchman, whose awful NL debut looked even worse when Teixeira went on a tear with the Angels.</p>
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		<title>By: Clayton</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/08/looking-ahead/comment-page-1/#comment-104136</link>
		<dc:creator>Clayton</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Aug 2008 12:21:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=959#comment-104136</guid>
		<description>Absurd to try and trade Kotchman, he&#039;s young, cheap, an above avg. fielder, and doesn&#039;t strike out much. Meaning he will improve as a hitter, now do I think he will be a 30+ homer guy, doubtful-but I only see his power improving with age. 

I read somewhere that after this season the Brave should have around $50 million of &quot;freed up&quot; money, if that is the case they should have more than enough to get 2 great SP&#039;s and a great OF. If this is the case then the Braves have a better chance in &#039;09 then people may think. They have a decently solid bullpen, if signing 2 SP&#039;s followed by Jair, Campillo, then Jo-Jo/Morton, getting a power hitting OF to go in the middle of the line-up will turn this dead team into something special. Now all of the trading aside, if the trades aren&#039;t there then I agree with trading Chipper, Johnson (keep Prado) and Infante, and Soriano. But ONLY if we aren&#039;t able to acquire exactly what we need.

Also, I love Matt Holliday, but his home run stats are inflated b/c of Coors Field. But I wouldn&#039;t mind the Braves picking him up for LF and putting Blanco in CF. But I wouldn&#039;t expect him to hit over 30 homers playing away from Coors.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Absurd to try and trade Kotchman, he&#8217;s young, cheap, an above avg. fielder, and doesn&#8217;t strike out much. Meaning he will improve as a hitter, now do I think he will be a 30+ homer guy, doubtful-but I only see his power improving with age. </p>
<p>I read somewhere that after this season the Brave should have around $50 million of &#8220;freed up&#8221; money, if that is the case they should have more than enough to get 2 great SP&#8217;s and a great OF. If this is the case then the Braves have a better chance in &#8217;09 then people may think. They have a decently solid bullpen, if signing 2 SP&#8217;s followed by Jair, Campillo, then Jo-Jo/Morton, getting a power hitting OF to go in the middle of the line-up will turn this dead team into something special. Now all of the trading aside, if the trades aren&#8217;t there then I agree with trading Chipper, Johnson (keep Prado) and Infante, and Soriano. But ONLY if we aren&#8217;t able to acquire exactly what we need.</p>
<p>Also, I love Matt Holliday, but his home run stats are inflated b/c of Coors Field. But I wouldn&#8217;t mind the Braves picking him up for LF and putting Blanco in CF. But I wouldn&#8217;t expect him to hit over 30 homers playing away from Coors.</p>
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		<title>By: Eric</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/08/looking-ahead/comment-page-1/#comment-104134</link>
		<dc:creator>Eric</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Aug 2008 02:02:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=959#comment-104134</guid>
		<description>I cringe when I think of Chipper being traded, after all the unselfish moves he&#039;s made to help the team.  However, if he&#039;s traded, it&#039;ll be because he&#039;s OK with it; he might even need to initiate it, and I could see him doing that.  The PR surrounding a Chipper trade would need to be delicate, to say the least.

Sadly, I agree with the notion that 2009 is shot.  There are just too many holes to fill and too many &quot;ifs&quot; once those holes are filled.  If Kelly Johnson returns to 2007 form, if Frenchy actually &lt;em&gt;can&lt;/em&gt; hit, if Campillo can keep this up, if one or two young starters come through, if they can get a full year of Gonzalez and Soriano in the pen.  That&#039;s a lot of ifs.  2010 seems more likely, and now is the time to start planning for it.  

I&#039;d guess KJ, Gonzalez and Soriano are all traded this off-season, with Kotsay  moving on.  I&#039;d expect Infante to stick around, but if he keeps it up he could be a nice in-season trade next year.  Kotchman makes sense to hang on to for 2010, with nobody in the system to replace him.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I cringe when I think of Chipper being traded, after all the unselfish moves he&#8217;s made to help the team.  However, if he&#8217;s traded, it&#8217;ll be because he&#8217;s OK with it; he might even need to initiate it, and I could see him doing that.  The PR surrounding a Chipper trade would need to be delicate, to say the least.</p>
<p>Sadly, I agree with the notion that 2009 is shot.  There are just too many holes to fill and too many &#8220;ifs&#8221; once those holes are filled.  If Kelly Johnson returns to 2007 form, if Frenchy actually <em>can</em> hit, if Campillo can keep this up, if one or two young starters come through, if they can get a full year of Gonzalez and Soriano in the pen.  That&#8217;s a lot of ifs.  2010 seems more likely, and now is the time to start planning for it.  </p>
<p>I&#8217;d guess KJ, Gonzalez and Soriano are all traded this off-season, with Kotsay  moving on.  I&#8217;d expect Infante to stick around, but if he keeps it up he could be a nice in-season trade next year.  Kotchman makes sense to hang on to for 2010, with nobody in the system to replace him.</p>
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		<title>By: JJ</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/08/looking-ahead/comment-page-1/#comment-104133</link>
		<dc:creator>JJ</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Aug 2008 00:46:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=959#comment-104133</guid>
		<description>JC, great article. I pretty much am in agreement with you. I see a very little chance of use making the playoffs. Might as well trade away anyone who has value and get some prospects in return. And LET THEM PLAY. So what is Schafer isn&#039;t ready, call him up. Its not like we have anyone else, so the experience wouldn&#039;t hurt him. 


And thank you for not advocating the re-signing of Mike Hampton. The thought of him toeing the rubber next season in a Braves uniform makes me want to vomit.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>JC, great article. I pretty much am in agreement with you. I see a very little chance of use making the playoffs. Might as well trade away anyone who has value and get some prospects in return. And LET THEM PLAY. So what is Schafer isn&#8217;t ready, call him up. Its not like we have anyone else, so the experience wouldn&#8217;t hurt him. </p>
<p>And thank you for not advocating the re-signing of Mike Hampton. The thought of him toeing the rubber next season in a Braves uniform makes me want to vomit.</p>
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		<title>By: Calvin</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/08/looking-ahead/comment-page-1/#comment-104132</link>
		<dc:creator>Calvin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Aug 2008 00:28:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=959#comment-104132</guid>
		<description>Since we&#039;re talking about going after two arms. Say we get Sheets or Sabathia, who do we go after next? 

Oliver Perez? Would come cheaper than any of the bigger names and he only gets better every year.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Since we&#8217;re talking about going after two arms. Say we get Sheets or Sabathia, who do we go after next? </p>
<p>Oliver Perez? Would come cheaper than any of the bigger names and he only gets better every year.</p>
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