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	<title>Comments on: The Trade-and-Sign Gambit: A Failing Strategy</title>
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	<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/08/the-trade-and-sign-gambit-a-failing-strategy/</link>
	<description>Economic Thinking about Baseball</description>
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		<title>By: Jason</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/08/the-trade-and-sign-gambit-a-failing-strategy/comment-page-1/#comment-104587</link>
		<dc:creator>Jason</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Sep 2008 20:53:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=962#comment-104587</guid>
		<description>The Braves refuse to give in to a market being driven by teams that are not concerned with budgets or profits.  I&#039;ve read Schurholtz&#039;s book and his economics make sense.  If not for organizations that refuse to give in as Atlanta does with its offers and no trade clauses then salaries would be more ridiculous than they already are.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Braves refuse to give in to a market being driven by teams that are not concerned with budgets or profits.  I&#8217;ve read Schurholtz&#8217;s book and his economics make sense.  If not for organizations that refuse to give in as Atlanta does with its offers and no trade clauses then salaries would be more ridiculous than they already are.</p>
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		<title>By: Jim K</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/08/the-trade-and-sign-gambit-a-failing-strategy/comment-page-1/#comment-104295</link>
		<dc:creator>Jim K</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 28 Aug 2008 16:30:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=962#comment-104295</guid>
		<description>Agree that these trades are generally a mistake. In a case like Teixeira, there&#039;s also a high risk that one of the players traded will become an all-star, and we&#039;ll miss his pre-arbitration years. That&#039;s a huge opportunity deficit.

On the point of owners being richer than players, consider the fans. The escalating salaries translate into the escalating ticket prices, especially in the larger markets. Look at what the NFL has achieved in terms of competitive balance with their salary cap.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Agree that these trades are generally a mistake. In a case like Teixeira, there&#8217;s also a high risk that one of the players traded will become an all-star, and we&#8217;ll miss his pre-arbitration years. That&#8217;s a huge opportunity deficit.</p>
<p>On the point of owners being richer than players, consider the fans. The escalating salaries translate into the escalating ticket prices, especially in the larger markets. Look at what the NFL has achieved in terms of competitive balance with their salary cap.</p>
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		<title>By: Bilal</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/08/the-trade-and-sign-gambit-a-failing-strategy/comment-page-1/#comment-104285</link>
		<dc:creator>Bilal</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Aug 2008 20:15:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=962#comment-104285</guid>
		<description>Nice Article.. but you have to look at what we gave up...

The only prospects we traded, who turned out to be stud is Adam Wainwright.  Other than that no one on that list has done any thing of importance for their respective teams.  Although people like Neftali has a ton of talent but how many time we have seen prospects with all the talent in the world fail. 

Your play and field estimates would work fine in the olden days when the starting pitchers pitched the whole game.  In Hudson&#039;s case that might not work out so well.  The reason being, Hudson has been pitching like a cy-young winner for the past 3 years.  If it wasnt for Dan Kolb and other crappy closer/set-up guys he might have won 20 games the past 2 seasons.  

JD and Sheffield had one good season and since then has seen a decline in their numbers (JD rebounded a little this season).  I believe that the Braves made the right moves in situations involving JD and Sheffield but not with Tex.  I believe they over-paid for him but that is because JS wanted to win the championship in his last season as the GM and sold the farm.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nice Article.. but you have to look at what we gave up&#8230;</p>
<p>The only prospects we traded, who turned out to be stud is Adam Wainwright.  Other than that no one on that list has done any thing of importance for their respective teams.  Although people like Neftali has a ton of talent but how many time we have seen prospects with all the talent in the world fail. </p>
<p>Your play and field estimates would work fine in the olden days when the starting pitchers pitched the whole game.  In Hudson&#8217;s case that might not work out so well.  The reason being, Hudson has been pitching like a cy-young winner for the past 3 years.  If it wasnt for Dan Kolb and other crappy closer/set-up guys he might have won 20 games the past 2 seasons.  </p>
<p>JD and Sheffield had one good season and since then has seen a decline in their numbers (JD rebounded a little this season).  I believe that the Braves made the right moves in situations involving JD and Sheffield but not with Tex.  I believe they over-paid for him but that is because JS wanted to win the championship in his last season as the GM and sold the farm.</p>
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		<title>By: JM</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/08/the-trade-and-sign-gambit-a-failing-strategy/comment-page-1/#comment-104262</link>
		<dc:creator>JM</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Aug 2008 02:04:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=962#comment-104262</guid>
		<description>Not a bad article JC but, most of the rent players went on to get paid and do nothing for the teams that signed them.
Gary Sheffield ended up getting hurt with the yankees and eventually traded to the tigers.
J.D. Drew another one injured with the dodgers.
As for Mark Teixeira I don&#039;t see him get hurt but not play to the potential of money given.
The only player signed to an extension Tim Hudson did an okay job, but not the potenial ace he could have been or as suggested the Braves thought he could be. Now he is out with Tommy John surgery and maybe out for the 2009 season.
The Braves don&#039;t sign their players because like all of them, most want money and the braves don&#039;t have that kind of money as other teams do.  But in the end it was worth it such as for Andruw Jones, Russ Ortiz, Kyle Farnsworth, Javier Lopez and pleanty of more that became a free agent bust because of injury or no heart of playing anymore since they got there money already.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Not a bad article JC but, most of the rent players went on to get paid and do nothing for the teams that signed them.<br />
Gary Sheffield ended up getting hurt with the yankees and eventually traded to the tigers.<br />
J.D. Drew another one injured with the dodgers.<br />
As for Mark Teixeira I don&#8217;t see him get hurt but not play to the potential of money given.<br />
The only player signed to an extension Tim Hudson did an okay job, but not the potenial ace he could have been or as suggested the Braves thought he could be. Now he is out with Tommy John surgery and maybe out for the 2009 season.<br />
The Braves don&#8217;t sign their players because like all of them, most want money and the braves don&#8217;t have that kind of money as other teams do.  But in the end it was worth it such as for Andruw Jones, Russ Ortiz, Kyle Farnsworth, Javier Lopez and pleanty of more that became a free agent bust because of injury or no heart of playing anymore since they got there money already.</p>
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		<title>By: Jason S.</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/08/the-trade-and-sign-gambit-a-failing-strategy/comment-page-1/#comment-104238</link>
		<dc:creator>Jason S.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 Aug 2008 14:02:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=962#comment-104238</guid>
		<description>Yes!  Great article JC.

To quickly comment on one thing in it, one of the reasons fans sympathize with the owners, when if anything they should rationally sympathize with the players, is that the players have been such complete jerks about the whole negotiation process.  To have heard Tom Glavine speak some years ago, you&#039;d have thought the players were risking death every day in coal mines.  

My number one complaint about the Braves for years has been that they are just delusional about the state of the team.  When the team was good enough to make the playoffs but not to actually advance past the first round, they thought they had a potential World Series winner.  All of those teams were deeply flawed, some with pitching, some with hitting, but all failed to even get back to the World Series.  And the 1999 team that was the last to go was a far cry from those vastly superior teams that went 4 times earlier in the decade.

Schuerholz is partly to blame for this &quot;rent-a-player&quot; trend.  I&#039;ve heard it said that &quot;Crazy is when you do the same thing over and over and expect a different result&quot;.   Schuerholz even admitted his relationship with Boras was very bad.  I think things just went south with Boras after Schuerholz thought he had reached a deal to sign A Rod and A Rod delayed signing the contract and then got the much better offer from Texas.  I think Schuerholz felt like he&#039;d been played and it was really just the end of any kind of normal business relationship between them.  I also think that getting Chipper and Andruw to sign and give hometown discounts to the Braves made Schuerholz believe that all players would feel that way.  I think JC is right that when guys are young and have less money, they are more willing to sign those kinds of deals and I am too lazy to check, but I suspect that this would apply to both Chipper and Andruw at the time of the signing.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yes!  Great article JC.</p>
<p>To quickly comment on one thing in it, one of the reasons fans sympathize with the owners, when if anything they should rationally sympathize with the players, is that the players have been such complete jerks about the whole negotiation process.  To have heard Tom Glavine speak some years ago, you&#8217;d have thought the players were risking death every day in coal mines.  </p>
<p>My number one complaint about the Braves for years has been that they are just delusional about the state of the team.  When the team was good enough to make the playoffs but not to actually advance past the first round, they thought they had a potential World Series winner.  All of those teams were deeply flawed, some with pitching, some with hitting, but all failed to even get back to the World Series.  And the 1999 team that was the last to go was a far cry from those vastly superior teams that went 4 times earlier in the decade.</p>
<p>Schuerholz is partly to blame for this &#8220;rent-a-player&#8221; trend.  I&#8217;ve heard it said that &#8220;Crazy is when you do the same thing over and over and expect a different result&#8221;.   Schuerholz even admitted his relationship with Boras was very bad.  I think things just went south with Boras after Schuerholz thought he had reached a deal to sign A Rod and A Rod delayed signing the contract and then got the much better offer from Texas.  I think Schuerholz felt like he&#8217;d been played and it was really just the end of any kind of normal business relationship between them.  I also think that getting Chipper and Andruw to sign and give hometown discounts to the Braves made Schuerholz believe that all players would feel that way.  I think JC is right that when guys are young and have less money, they are more willing to sign those kinds of deals and I am too lazy to check, but I suspect that this would apply to both Chipper and Andruw at the time of the signing.</p>
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		<title>By: Rick</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/08/the-trade-and-sign-gambit-a-failing-strategy/comment-page-1/#comment-104234</link>
		<dc:creator>Rick</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 Aug 2008 13:08:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=962#comment-104234</guid>
		<description>JuJube-You don&#039;t judge a player&#039;s worth/value by what they do during the post-season. The sample size is just too small and short series are always a crapshoot at best. You judge a players worth/value based on what he does during the regular season. Did he produce as he should have based on the dollars paid out etc.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>JuJube-You don&#8217;t judge a player&#8217;s worth/value by what they do during the post-season. The sample size is just too small and short series are always a crapshoot at best. You judge a players worth/value based on what he does during the regular season. Did he produce as he should have based on the dollars paid out etc.</p>
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		<title>By: jj3bagger</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/08/the-trade-and-sign-gambit-a-failing-strategy/comment-page-1/#comment-104214</link>
		<dc:creator>jj3bagger</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 Aug 2008 04:18:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=962#comment-104214</guid>
		<description>JC, love your stuff as always, one important thing I think you failed to mention in the cases of not resigning Drew, Sheff, and Tex were all three were represented by Scott Boras.  I know for sure that Drew &amp; Tex are still, I&#039;m not sure if Sheff still is or not, but I&#039;m pretty sure he was at the time.  Anyway, I would bet of any agent, Boras has more of his clients test free agency, and most of the time it works out better (in terms of dollars) for his clients than resigning early with their original teams.  I would think that most teams aren&#039;t going to offer more money per se to their own players if they don&#039;t have to yet, and that&#039;s probably part of the reason why they didn&#039;t resign those players, because Boras is good at getting top dollar for his clients.   I think the bottom line is that the Braves are willing to pay top dollar (or market value, as the case could be made) for anybody, regardless of whether they trade for them, or via free agency.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>JC, love your stuff as always, one important thing I think you failed to mention in the cases of not resigning Drew, Sheff, and Tex were all three were represented by Scott Boras.  I know for sure that Drew &amp; Tex are still, I&#8217;m not sure if Sheff still is or not, but I&#8217;m pretty sure he was at the time.  Anyway, I would bet of any agent, Boras has more of his clients test free agency, and most of the time it works out better (in terms of dollars) for his clients than resigning early with their original teams.  I would think that most teams aren&#8217;t going to offer more money per se to their own players if they don&#8217;t have to yet, and that&#8217;s probably part of the reason why they didn&#8217;t resign those players, because Boras is good at getting top dollar for his clients.   I think the bottom line is that the Braves are willing to pay top dollar (or market value, as the case could be made) for anybody, regardless of whether they trade for them, or via free agency.</p>
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		<title>By: Jujube</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/08/the-trade-and-sign-gambit-a-failing-strategy/comment-page-1/#comment-104213</link>
		<dc:creator>Jujube</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 Aug 2008 03:58:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=962#comment-104213</guid>
		<description>While the players in the Tex trade are too young to judge, for the most part the Braves didn&#039;t give up a great deal of talent in the trades mentioned.  

In the case of Sheffield, he needed to go after his contract was up. He flopped terribly in the post season, seemingly hitting with runners on base constantly and not getting them in.

Drew had a good year, but is a smart southern boy who knows that baseball is about the $$, and has maximized his return.  Getting only a year of Drew for Wainwright can be seen as a loss in hindsight.

The Texiera trade was a reach, and may turn out to be a bad one. He did perform well last year, and they are trying to win one more before Cox retires. It was a gamble, but it had two years to pay off, and didn&#039;t.

Cruz has been a solid reliever, and Meyer may be good, but the Braves didn&#039;t give up a lot for Hudson. He has been solid in the rotation, until the recent injury.
To this point, the Braves haven&#039;t given up any Scott Kazmir types for absolute busts, so they can&#039;t be faulted too much.

 </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>While the players in the Tex trade are too young to judge, for the most part the Braves didn&#8217;t give up a great deal of talent in the trades mentioned.  </p>
<p>In the case of Sheffield, he needed to go after his contract was up. He flopped terribly in the post season, seemingly hitting with runners on base constantly and not getting them in.</p>
<p>Drew had a good year, but is a smart southern boy who knows that baseball is about the $$, and has maximized his return.  Getting only a year of Drew for Wainwright can be seen as a loss in hindsight.</p>
<p>The Texiera trade was a reach, and may turn out to be a bad one. He did perform well last year, and they are trying to win one more before Cox retires. It was a gamble, but it had two years to pay off, and didn&#8217;t.</p>
<p>Cruz has been a solid reliever, and Meyer may be good, but the Braves didn&#8217;t give up a lot for Hudson. He has been solid in the rotation, until the recent injury.<br />
To this point, the Braves haven&#8217;t given up any Scott Kazmir types for absolute busts, so they can&#8217;t be faulted too much.</p>
<p> </p>
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		<title>By: JJ</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/08/the-trade-and-sign-gambit-a-failing-strategy/comment-page-1/#comment-104205</link>
		<dc:creator>JJ</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 Aug 2008 00:44:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=962#comment-104205</guid>
		<description>A member of the Braves front office told me personally that the Braves offered Tex 5 years/$100 million.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A member of the Braves front office told me personally that the Braves offered Tex 5 years/$100 million.</p>
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		<title>By: Another Zach</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/08/the-trade-and-sign-gambit-a-failing-strategy/comment-page-1/#comment-104203</link>
		<dc:creator>Another Zach</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 Aug 2008 00:24:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=962#comment-104203</guid>
		<description>While true only one of these players signed long-term, they all not only met but easily exceeded their expectations while they were with the Braves and were vital in our run of postseason appearances.  Sheffield led one of the greatest offenses the Braves have ever had in 2003 and J.D. Drew had his best season as a professional in 2004 and even avoided the injury bug.  While Tex disappointed somewhat this year, he gave us everything we could have hoped for down the stretch last year.

When the Braves make deals like this, I view it as a rental of the player for a year or two and a chance to sign them long-term.  I don&#039;t think the success of the deal ever hinges on signing them long-term.   The Braves have one of the most productive farm systems in baseball and can take advantage of that in two ways by developing young stars as well as trading them for more experienced players.  Those players may not be around for more than a year or two but as long as they make a major impact while they are here, and all of these players did, I view the trade as an overall success in spite of our failure to sign the player received to a long-term deal.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>While true only one of these players signed long-term, they all not only met but easily exceeded their expectations while they were with the Braves and were vital in our run of postseason appearances.  Sheffield led one of the greatest offenses the Braves have ever had in 2003 and J.D. Drew had his best season as a professional in 2004 and even avoided the injury bug.  While Tex disappointed somewhat this year, he gave us everything we could have hoped for down the stretch last year.</p>
<p>When the Braves make deals like this, I view it as a rental of the player for a year or two and a chance to sign them long-term.  I don&#8217;t think the success of the deal ever hinges on signing them long-term.   The Braves have one of the most productive farm systems in baseball and can take advantage of that in two ways by developing young stars as well as trading them for more experienced players.  Those players may not be around for more than a year or two but as long as they make a major impact while they are here, and all of these players did, I view the trade as an overall success in spite of our failure to sign the player received to a long-term deal.</p>
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