Evaluating the Angels’ Recent Moves
Whatever happened to the moratorium on major announcements during the World Series?
Yesterday, the Angels announced three player moves: they picked up the options on Vladimir Geurrero and John Lackey, and they declined the option on Garret Anderson. I like all three moves, and I don’t think any of them were surprising. But, let me comment on the value of each player.
Vlad continues to be an excellent player as he enters the decline phase of his career. The good news is that aging declines aren’t cliffs and Guerrero has always been a good player. I have him valued at $20 million for next season, making his $15 million contract a good deal.
Lackey is an underrated player; at least, I don’t hear much about him from the media. From 2005–2007—before his injury troubles to start this year—Lackey was one of baseball’s top-5 pitchers. He’s near the peak of his aging curve, so I expect he’ll heal well and be a bit better than his 2008 campaign, which really wasn’t bad. He’s worth about $15-16 million and his option was for $9 million: another good deal.
Garret Anderson will turn 37 half-way through the 2009 season. His most recent contract wasn’t a good one for the Angels, and it should have been expected that the Angels would chose the $3 million buyout over his $14 million option. Still, he’s a useful major-league player; and major-league players, including the non-stars, are valuable. I expect he’ll end up with a two-year deal that averages $8-9 million a season.
J.C. Bradbury is an economist and associate professor at Kennesaw State University in metropolitan Atlanta. He is the author of The Baseball Economist and has operated Sabernomics.com since March 2004.
October 29th, 2008 at 1:26 pm
Can we please get a valuation of Juan Rivera. He would be a steal for the Angels to resign and fills a hole affordably. He is an important signing and should be given a full time role. Give me some statistical backing!
October 29th, 2008 at 1:40 pm
The World Series is over; ask the guys in Vegas, who know the rules of baseball.
October 30th, 2008 at 8:17 am
Rivera’s a bit hard to value because of his injury. I have no idea how he’s healed. PrOPS says he underperformed this year, so he’s probably better than the line he posted.
One thing to remember about “bargain” free agents. He won’t be a bargain if everyone thinks he will be.
October 30th, 2008 at 9:35 am
Can you see Garrett Anderson in Phillies red, Dr. Bradbury? Odds are that the Phillies won’t extend Burrell’s contract past this season and a bunch of the Phils’ current players are due for a pay increase in their current contracts. Garrett seems like a good value play here if the Phils don’t have to commit more than two years to him. I’ve heard whispers of moving their top catching prospect, Lou Marson, to left field and keeping Ruiz behind the plate. Signing Anderson would at least bring some stability to the bottom half of that lineup.
October 31st, 2008 at 12:48 am
I can’t imagine GA getting 2 years and 17M from anyone (well maybe the Yankees or Mets if they lose their minds). I thought it was only pitchers and RBI men who got deals for too much $$$.
October 31st, 2008 at 11:21 am
Typo alert. You said: “…will turn 37 half-way through the 2008 season.” It should be the 2009 season and not 2008 season.
October 31st, 2008 at 11:27 am
I fear that Garrett Anderson is Bobby Cox’s type of player and the Braves will overpay for him.
October 31st, 2008 at 11:46 am
Thanks John. Fixed.
While I don’t advocate the Braves signing Anderson, he would improve the outfield. That says more about the Braves outfield than Anderson.
November 3rd, 2008 at 11:15 am
What about the Phillies, Dr. Bradbury?