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	<title>Comments on: Breaking Down the Swisher Deal</title>
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	<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/11/breaking-down-the-swisher-deal/</link>
	<description>Economic Thinking about Baseball</description>
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		<title>By: TimK</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/11/breaking-down-the-swisher-deal/comment-page-1/#comment-105146</link>
		<dc:creator>TimK</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 18 Nov 2008 13:08:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=1102#comment-105146</guid>
		<description>&lt;em&gt;I have Swisher valued as a $19 million/year player over the next four years.

&lt;/em&gt;I&#039;d be truly astonished if Swisher came in anywhere near that value.  In any event, I doubt anyone would be paying it unless there&#039;s a massive surge in salaries this year.  Considering that Adam Dunn doesn&#039;t even appear to be a prized commodity with his superior offensive numbers, I think if Swisher was in this year&#039;s free agent market, he&#039;d be lucky to get $10 million. 

I&#039;ve never thought much of Swisher -- the Moneyball chapter lauding him was also spent with Billy Beane trashing, among others, Cole Hamels,  Scott Kazmir, Prince Fielder, B.J. Upton, 

Swisher also had a 92 OPS+ last year. Even if he returns to 2006-07 form (125, 127, respectively), that puts him dead even with Pat Burrell over the last two years. Burrell&#039;s not going to get anywhere near 19 million.  While Swisher&#039;s a better defensive player, he&#039;s not a particularly gifted outfielder/first baseman, so I don&#039;t think the difference (or the age difference) is going to bring Swisher an extra $5 million.  His baseball-reference.com comps are worse than Burrell, the only active player similar through age 27 list is Austin Kearns (who&#039;s 28 now). His $8 mm deal is considered a bad contract.  Among his most comparable players, the only active one is Craig Monroe, who was available for under $5 mm last year.

The Yankees got a steal on this one, because Marquez is a sinker-ball pitcher who has showed only fleeting ability to strike out batters in the minors, Betemit is basically nothing, and the Yankees got a good looking prospect in Texeira in addition to Swisher. But $19 million a year is preposterous, unless Swisher improves his OPS by at least 50 points from his career high.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>I have Swisher valued as a $19 million/year player over the next four years.</p>
<p></em>I&#8217;d be truly astonished if Swisher came in anywhere near that value.  In any event, I doubt anyone would be paying it unless there&#8217;s a massive surge in salaries this year.  Considering that Adam Dunn doesn&#8217;t even appear to be a prized commodity with his superior offensive numbers, I think if Swisher was in this year&#8217;s free agent market, he&#8217;d be lucky to get $10 million. </p>
<p>I&#8217;ve never thought much of Swisher &#8212; the Moneyball chapter lauding him was also spent with Billy Beane trashing, among others, Cole Hamels,  Scott Kazmir, Prince Fielder, B.J. Upton, </p>
<p>Swisher also had a 92 OPS+ last year. Even if he returns to 2006-07 form (125, 127, respectively), that puts him dead even with Pat Burrell over the last two years. Burrell&#8217;s not going to get anywhere near 19 million.  While Swisher&#8217;s a better defensive player, he&#8217;s not a particularly gifted outfielder/first baseman, so I don&#8217;t think the difference (or the age difference) is going to bring Swisher an extra $5 million.  His baseball-reference.com comps are worse than Burrell, the only active player similar through age 27 list is Austin Kearns (who&#8217;s 28 now). His $8 mm deal is considered a bad contract.  Among his most comparable players, the only active one is Craig Monroe, who was available for under $5 mm last year.</p>
<p>The Yankees got a steal on this one, because Marquez is a sinker-ball pitcher who has showed only fleeting ability to strike out batters in the minors, Betemit is basically nothing, and the Yankees got a good looking prospect in Texeira in addition to Swisher. But $19 million a year is preposterous, unless Swisher improves his OPS by at least 50 points from his career high.</p>
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		<title>By: pawlenty</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/11/breaking-down-the-swisher-deal/comment-page-1/#comment-105145</link>
		<dc:creator>pawlenty</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 17 Nov 2008 23:02:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=1102#comment-105145</guid>
		<description>&lt;em&gt;I have Swisher valued as a $19 million/year player over the next four years.

&lt;/em&gt;Is there a decimal point missing in that sentence somewhere?&lt;em&gt;&lt;/em&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>I have Swisher valued as a $19 million/year player over the next four years.</p>
<p></em>Is there a decimal point missing in that sentence somewhere?<em></em></p>
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		<title>By: JoshF</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/11/breaking-down-the-swisher-deal/comment-page-1/#comment-105122</link>
		<dc:creator>JoshF</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 14 Nov 2008 18:49:33 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Thanks.
Yeah I think it&#039;s clearly one sided and am a bit surprised at the amount of people who seem to have written him off due to his poor luck and subsequent overall numbers (mostly BA) last season.  I&#039;m really hoping he bounces back but I&#039;ll feel a bit dirty rooting for the Yankees.  Since I began watching baseball in &#039;89, both of my favorite players (Davie Justice and now Nick Swisher) ended up on the Yankees.  That is just wrong, I really wish the Braves could have done this move for RF then dealt Frenchy...I&#039;m also pretty sure Swisher has said before that playing for the Braves would be a dream come true but I could be mistaken.  Thanks again.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanks.<br />
Yeah I think it&#8217;s clearly one sided and am a bit surprised at the amount of people who seem to have written him off due to his poor luck and subsequent overall numbers (mostly BA) last season.  I&#8217;m really hoping he bounces back but I&#8217;ll feel a bit dirty rooting for the Yankees.  Since I began watching baseball in &#8217;89, both of my favorite players (Davie Justice and now Nick Swisher) ended up on the Yankees.  That is just wrong, I really wish the Braves could have done this move for RF then dealt Frenchy&#8230;I&#8217;m also pretty sure Swisher has said before that playing for the Braves would be a dream come true but I could be mistaken.  Thanks again.</p>
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