I didn’t mean for that to rhyme. Anyway, I’m heading to Washington, DC for a conference later this week, and I’m looking for restaurant suggestions. I feel odd asking for advice about a city where I used to live, but it’s been so long and the city is so big. I’d appreciate any suggestions. I’m staying near the MCI Center and looking for breakfast, lunch, and dinner recommendations. I don’t mind catching the Metro to find a good place.
Preparing for the conference is one of the things that has been slowing me down. But, let me analyze a recent trade and signing.
— Yesterday, the Giants signed Jeremy Affeldt to a two-year $8 million deal. Based on his performance over the past two years—I normally go back three, but two seems more appropriate here—I have him projecting a value of about $4.5 million/year. I normally don’t like big-dollar reliever contracts, but this one seems spot on.
— Last week, the Marlins traded Kevin Gregg to the Cubs for minor-league pitcher Jose Ceda. I have Gregg valued similar to Affeldt, and Ceda had good numbers in High-A and Double-A last year. The problem for the Cubs is that Affeldt is only under their control for one more season, during which he’ll earn $1-2 million less than his value. Valuing Ceda is difficult, but I have been working on a method for valuing prospects, and the expected value for players similar to Ceda is around $2 million. If he has a significant major-league career, he’ll be worth much more, but there is a high probability that he will wash out. So, this seems like a decent deal for both teams, and it makes sense given the team’s operating strategies. The cost-conscious Marlins are willing to take a risk on a potential high long-term payout, and the Cubs want a certain payout now.