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	<title>Comments on: Jeff Francoeur&#8217;s Head Is Still Up His Butt</title>
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	<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/11/jeff-francoeurs-head-is-still-up-his-butt/</link>
	<description>Economic Thinking about Baseball</description>
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		<title>By: Rick Henderson</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/11/jeff-francoeurs-head-is-still-up-his-butt/comment-page-1/#comment-105254</link>
		<dc:creator>Rick Henderson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 30 Nov 2008 01:40:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=1117#comment-105254</guid>
		<description>Tom,

After reading David O&#039;Brien&#039;s blogs and AJC stories pretty faithfully, I think part of the organization&#039;s frustration with Francouer is that he pretty much took last winter off -- except for body-building. He didn&#039;t hit in a cage and came to spring training very rusty. 

Francouer&#039;s strike zone recognition is pretty awful but he might be able to compensate for that by hitting constantly. He didn&#039;t last winter and between the loss of muscle memory and his newly found bulk, he never recovered.

I&#039;ve alway thought he was a mediocre player with a lot of power -- he never put up great minor-league numbers, unlike, say, Chipper -- who caught lightning in a bottle. As a Braves fan I hoped that lucky streak would continue. 

Now I&#039;d be just as happy if they got rid of him and let some other organization worry about his failure to achieve his &quot;potential.&quot;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Tom,</p>
<p>After reading David O&#8217;Brien&#8217;s blogs and AJC stories pretty faithfully, I think part of the organization&#8217;s frustration with Francouer is that he pretty much took last winter off &#8212; except for body-building. He didn&#8217;t hit in a cage and came to spring training very rusty. </p>
<p>Francouer&#8217;s strike zone recognition is pretty awful but he might be able to compensate for that by hitting constantly. He didn&#8217;t last winter and between the loss of muscle memory and his newly found bulk, he never recovered.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ve alway thought he was a mediocre player with a lot of power &#8212; he never put up great minor-league numbers, unlike, say, Chipper &#8212; who caught lightning in a bottle. As a Braves fan I hoped that lucky streak would continue. </p>
<p>Now I&#8217;d be just as happy if they got rid of him and let some other organization worry about his failure to achieve his &#8220;potential.&#8221;</p>
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		<title>By: John McCann</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/11/jeff-francoeurs-head-is-still-up-his-butt/comment-page-1/#comment-105248</link>
		<dc:creator>John McCann</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 26 Nov 2008 04:04:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=1117#comment-105248</guid>
		<description>The only way to tell when Jeff has grown up is when they sit him a few times versus RHP on the road, and he keeps his mouth shut.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The only way to tell when Jeff has grown up is when they sit him a few times versus RHP on the road, and he keeps his mouth shut.</p>
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		<title>By: Marc Schneider</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/11/jeff-francoeurs-head-is-still-up-his-butt/comment-page-1/#comment-105241</link>
		<dc:creator>Marc Schneider</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Nov 2008 21:04:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=1117#comment-105241</guid>
		<description>Well, I think the best excuse is that Jeff might have been kidding about the 80 games.  If he was serious, it&#039;s a pretty stupid thing to say.    First, his other 80 games weren&#039;t that good either--he only hit 11 home runs all year.  Second, how many good players would simply discount half the season; if it&#039;s splits you want, then someone else should have been playing the other 80 games.

But, after thinking about it, I think (and hope) he was being ironic. </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Well, I think the best excuse is that Jeff might have been kidding about the 80 games.  If he was serious, it&#8217;s a pretty stupid thing to say.    First, his other 80 games weren&#8217;t that good either&#8211;he only hit 11 home runs all year.  Second, how many good players would simply discount half the season; if it&#8217;s splits you want, then someone else should have been playing the other 80 games.</p>
<p>But, after thinking about it, I think (and hope) he was being ironic. </p>
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		<title>By: Dawn</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/11/jeff-francoeurs-head-is-still-up-his-butt/comment-page-1/#comment-105230</link>
		<dc:creator>Dawn</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 22 Nov 2008 21:27:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=1117#comment-105230</guid>
		<description>Tom said about Francoeur:
&lt;em&gt;He gets demoted, and in his frustration, makes some comments that he regrets.  Wouldn’t be the first time a young player had done so, and people also tend to forget that–God forbid–maybe the organization didn’t handle the matter in the best way possible&lt;/em&gt;.

First of all, I really don&#039;t know how the Braves could have handled it any better than they did.  Secondly, you&#039;re right -- it could have just been frustration.  The thing is, who says he regrets making the comments?  He certainly hasn&#039;t said he regrets it.  If he would say that, I would gain a lot of respect for him.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Tom said about Francoeur:<br />
<em>He gets demoted, and in his frustration, makes some comments that he regrets.  Wouldn’t be the first time a young player had done so, and people also tend to forget that–God forbid–maybe the organization didn’t handle the matter in the best way possible</em>.</p>
<p>First of all, I really don&#8217;t know how the Braves could have handled it any better than they did.  Secondly, you&#8217;re right &#8212; it could have just been frustration.  The thing is, who says he regrets making the comments?  He certainly hasn&#8217;t said he regrets it.  If he would say that, I would gain a lot of respect for him.</p>
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		<title>By: Tom</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/11/jeff-francoeurs-head-is-still-up-his-butt/comment-page-1/#comment-105229</link>
		<dc:creator>Tom</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 22 Nov 2008 17:35:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=1117#comment-105229</guid>
		<description>Marc, why do you interpret his comments as &quot;excuses&quot;?  He&#039;s done talking about last season, as well he should be.  He doesn&#039;t have to explain to fans that he sucked last year.  He started off the interview by saying he&#039;s putting last year behind him.  That suggests pretty clearly that he knows it was a poor season, and, as a result, he&#039;s going to focus on NEXT season.  There&#039;s no reason for him to keep rehashing everything that went wrong.  It&#039;s not good for his mindset, and, as a fan, I sure don&#039;t want to hear it.  Like him, I&#039;ve moved on...the 2008 season is over, I&#039;m focusing on 2010.

Even though Frenchy makes some comments about last season (like the &quot;80 games&quot; comment), he still appears to be focusing on next season.  He&#039;s pointing out some positives in order to say that there&#039;s still hope.  There&#039;s still reason for fans to believe in him, and there&#039;s still reason for him to believe in himself.  Is it really so wrong for him to say that?

On a side note, I already addressed Mr. Bradbury&#039;s logical fallacy in his (and your) analysis of the &quot;80 games&quot; comment.  Any good statistician knows the value of analyzing splits.  It&#039;d cost you a fortune to put out a lineup of eight guys who are star-caliber all the time.  You have to settle for at least three or four of those guys being star-caliber SOME of the time.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Marc, why do you interpret his comments as &#8220;excuses&#8221;?  He&#8217;s done talking about last season, as well he should be.  He doesn&#8217;t have to explain to fans that he sucked last year.  He started off the interview by saying he&#8217;s putting last year behind him.  That suggests pretty clearly that he knows it was a poor season, and, as a result, he&#8217;s going to focus on NEXT season.  There&#8217;s no reason for him to keep rehashing everything that went wrong.  It&#8217;s not good for his mindset, and, as a fan, I sure don&#8217;t want to hear it.  Like him, I&#8217;ve moved on&#8230;the 2008 season is over, I&#8217;m focusing on 2010.</p>
<p>Even though Frenchy makes some comments about last season (like the &#8220;80 games&#8221; comment), he still appears to be focusing on next season.  He&#8217;s pointing out some positives in order to say that there&#8217;s still hope.  There&#8217;s still reason for fans to believe in him, and there&#8217;s still reason for him to believe in himself.  Is it really so wrong for him to say that?</p>
<p>On a side note, I already addressed Mr. Bradbury&#8217;s logical fallacy in his (and your) analysis of the &#8220;80 games&#8221; comment.  Any good statistician knows the value of analyzing splits.  It&#8217;d cost you a fortune to put out a lineup of eight guys who are star-caliber all the time.  You have to settle for at least three or four of those guys being star-caliber SOME of the time.</p>
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		<title>By: Mark</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/11/jeff-francoeurs-head-is-still-up-his-butt/comment-page-1/#comment-105227</link>
		<dc:creator>Mark</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 22 Nov 2008 14:25:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=1117#comment-105227</guid>
		<description>Francoeur&#039;s OPS ceiling is around 800, which is fairly pedestrian for any outfielder. His numbers in 2006/2007 were due more to playing every inning of the entire two seasons than his talent level.  His attitude aside, no way should Francoeur been allowed to stay in the Braves starting line up for as long as he did. That mistake is on the head of Bobby Cox.

No matter ones opinion concerning the talent level of Jeff Francoeur, 2009 is his make or break season for the Atlanta Braves.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Francoeur&#8217;s OPS ceiling is around 800, which is fairly pedestrian for any outfielder. His numbers in 2006/2007 were due more to playing every inning of the entire two seasons than his talent level.  His attitude aside, no way should Francoeur been allowed to stay in the Braves starting line up for as long as he did. That mistake is on the head of Bobby Cox.</p>
<p>No matter ones opinion concerning the talent level of Jeff Francoeur, 2009 is his make or break season for the Atlanta Braves.</p>
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		<title>By: Larry</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/11/jeff-francoeurs-head-is-still-up-his-butt/comment-page-1/#comment-105224</link>
		<dc:creator>Larry</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 22 Nov 2008 05:49:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=1117#comment-105224</guid>
		<description>Apparently, humor is lost on you.  To take that statement (the 80 games) and attempt to turn it into something more is just plain silly. All he actually said was that other players have had bad years and bounced back. Bill James recently released his list of the best players under 26 years of age in baseball.  Prince Fielder was first, Miguel Cabrara was 23rd and Joe Mauer was completely left of the list.  Anyone with a reasonable knowledge of baseball knows this is rubbish.  Sabermetrics is a long way from an exact science when applied to baseball.  To say that Burrell was better player that Jeff in &#039;07 is to ignore his defensive liabilities and Jeff&#039;s defensive assets.  The player has to be considered as a whole. </description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Apparently, humor is lost on you.  To take that statement (the 80 games) and attempt to turn it into something more is just plain silly. All he actually said was that other players have had bad years and bounced back. Bill James recently released his list of the best players under 26 years of age in baseball.  Prince Fielder was first, Miguel Cabrara was 23rd and Joe Mauer was completely left of the list.  Anyone with a reasonable knowledge of baseball knows this is rubbish.  Sabermetrics is a long way from an exact science when applied to baseball.  To say that Burrell was better player that Jeff in &#8217;07 is to ignore his defensive liabilities and Jeff&#8217;s defensive assets.  The player has to be considered as a whole. </p>
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		<title>By: Braves Fan</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/11/jeff-francoeurs-head-is-still-up-his-butt/comment-page-1/#comment-105221</link>
		<dc:creator>Braves Fan</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 21 Nov 2008 23:32:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=1117#comment-105221</guid>
		<description>If I can stick up for Charlie, slightly, I don&#039;t necessarily think he meant what he wrote, as much as he just wanted to get across the idea that perhaps JC has moved from assessing Francoeur&#039;s performance, to just blindly criticizing him.  I&#039;m not sure I&#039;d agree in full, because I think JC usually does a good job of backing up his analysis, but it is something to think about.  Even if it was bluntly stated.
Thanks for the great comments Tom, especially the comments on the baseball culture.  When it comes to the &quot;yes&quot;es that you&#039;d get from MLBers on his 2006 season, it is hard to argue that it wasn&#039;t a good season based solely on the production.  Simply put, runs win games, and driving in runs within a single game is more important than getting on base.  Now there is an argument that it could&#039;ve been a better season, or that the RBI and HR numbers alone aren&#039;t good predictors of future performance, but we need to be mindful of these differences, and clear in our criticisms.
Lastly, for our friend in Alaska, I chuckled at that comment from Wren too. If you read the whole conversation transcript, he made a lot of quick answers to a lot of, sometimes stupid and repetitive, questions, so I think we can hope that he was just being simplistic and optimistic.  I&#039;m pretty sure that Frank has a backup plan if Jeff falters again this Spring.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If I can stick up for Charlie, slightly, I don&#8217;t necessarily think he meant what he wrote, as much as he just wanted to get across the idea that perhaps JC has moved from assessing Francoeur&#8217;s performance, to just blindly criticizing him.  I&#8217;m not sure I&#8217;d agree in full, because I think JC usually does a good job of backing up his analysis, but it is something to think about.  Even if it was bluntly stated.<br />
Thanks for the great comments Tom, especially the comments on the baseball culture.  When it comes to the &#8220;yes&#8221;es that you&#8217;d get from MLBers on his 2006 season, it is hard to argue that it wasn&#8217;t a good season based solely on the production.  Simply put, runs win games, and driving in runs within a single game is more important than getting on base.  Now there is an argument that it could&#8217;ve been a better season, or that the RBI and HR numbers alone aren&#8217;t good predictors of future performance, but we need to be mindful of these differences, and clear in our criticisms.<br />
Lastly, for our friend in Alaska, I chuckled at that comment from Wren too. If you read the whole conversation transcript, he made a lot of quick answers to a lot of, sometimes stupid and repetitive, questions, so I think we can hope that he was just being simplistic and optimistic.  I&#8217;m pretty sure that Frank has a backup plan if Jeff falters again this Spring.</p>
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		<title>By: Tom</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/11/jeff-francoeurs-head-is-still-up-his-butt/comment-page-1/#comment-105218</link>
		<dc:creator>Tom</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 21 Nov 2008 21:05:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=1117#comment-105218</guid>
		<description>Rick, I think you&#039;re drawing some fuzzy connections between various types of baseball skills.  Pitch recognition, &quot;working the count,&quot; and OBP are three decidedly different skill sets.

First, there&#039;s pitch recognition, the ability to recognize fastball or curveball, ball or strike.  Obviously Frenchy needs some work on his strike zone judgment, but that&#039;s a skill that takes a lot of time and effort to learn, and I&#039;ve never seen him say that he isn&#039;t working on his pitch recognition.  All that extra time he&#039;s taken in the cages...I&#039;ll bet dollars to doughnuts that&#039;s what he&#039;s working on.  Players do not quickly develop plate discipline.

Then, there&#039;s working the count.  Again, this is a skill that&#039;s understood within the game, but to players and coaches, patience isn&#039;t always a virtue.  Some players get praised for their ability to &quot;wait for their pitch,&quot; but you see just as many players get praised for being &quot;aggressive hitters.&quot;  Keep in mind that aggressive is in many ways just a euphemism for a hitter that likes to swing early and often.  There&#039;s such a thing as being TOO aggressive (which Francoeur is), but there&#039;s a fine line between wanting to be more patient and wanting to become a patient hitter.  Jeff&#039;s past success has all come out of a willingness to be something of a free-swinger, and as a result, I see no reason to change the approach entirely.  Some adjustments, absolutely, but he doesn&#039;t need to make radical changes, and I&#039;ve never heard him express an aversion to adjustments.

High OBP is a yet different skill, and it is largely UNappreciated in dugouts around the majors.  When you talk about the Yankees and Red Sox and A&#039;s preaching OBP, you&#039;re talking about the front offices.  They tend to try to acquire players whose skill sets include patience and plate discipline, but on a coaching level, they aren&#039;t trying to take free-swingers and turn them into walk machines.

All these skills are different, but they are interconnected, under the umbrella of plate discipline.  And players rarely learn plate discipline overnight.  It takes several years if it comes at all.  And that is where Frenchy&#039;s expectations may have been out of line...everyone expected that plate discipline to develop so Francoeur could be a star.  It hasn&#039;t developed, but it would be a fallacy to insist that that is somehow Francoeur&#039;s own fault.  Prospects fail all the time, and much more often it is because they simply didn&#039;t have the skill set than that they had their heads up their butts.  Again, people look at all of Francoeur&#039;s &quot;tools&quot; and think that means he should be a superstar, but sometimes the tools just don&#039;t come together.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Rick, I think you&#8217;re drawing some fuzzy connections between various types of baseball skills.  Pitch recognition, &#8220;working the count,&#8221; and OBP are three decidedly different skill sets.</p>
<p>First, there&#8217;s pitch recognition, the ability to recognize fastball or curveball, ball or strike.  Obviously Frenchy needs some work on his strike zone judgment, but that&#8217;s a skill that takes a lot of time and effort to learn, and I&#8217;ve never seen him say that he isn&#8217;t working on his pitch recognition.  All that extra time he&#8217;s taken in the cages&#8230;I&#8217;ll bet dollars to doughnuts that&#8217;s what he&#8217;s working on.  Players do not quickly develop plate discipline.</p>
<p>Then, there&#8217;s working the count.  Again, this is a skill that&#8217;s understood within the game, but to players and coaches, patience isn&#8217;t always a virtue.  Some players get praised for their ability to &#8220;wait for their pitch,&#8221; but you see just as many players get praised for being &#8220;aggressive hitters.&#8221;  Keep in mind that aggressive is in many ways just a euphemism for a hitter that likes to swing early and often.  There&#8217;s such a thing as being TOO aggressive (which Francoeur is), but there&#8217;s a fine line between wanting to be more patient and wanting to become a patient hitter.  Jeff&#8217;s past success has all come out of a willingness to be something of a free-swinger, and as a result, I see no reason to change the approach entirely.  Some adjustments, absolutely, but he doesn&#8217;t need to make radical changes, and I&#8217;ve never heard him express an aversion to adjustments.</p>
<p>High OBP is a yet different skill, and it is largely UNappreciated in dugouts around the majors.  When you talk about the Yankees and Red Sox and A&#8217;s preaching OBP, you&#8217;re talking about the front offices.  They tend to try to acquire players whose skill sets include patience and plate discipline, but on a coaching level, they aren&#8217;t trying to take free-swingers and turn them into walk machines.</p>
<p>All these skills are different, but they are interconnected, under the umbrella of plate discipline.  And players rarely learn plate discipline overnight.  It takes several years if it comes at all.  And that is where Frenchy&#8217;s expectations may have been out of line&#8230;everyone expected that plate discipline to develop so Francoeur could be a star.  It hasn&#8217;t developed, but it would be a fallacy to insist that that is somehow Francoeur&#8217;s own fault.  Prospects fail all the time, and much more often it is because they simply didn&#8217;t have the skill set than that they had their heads up their butts.  Again, people look at all of Francoeur&#8217;s &#8220;tools&#8221; and think that means he should be a superstar, but sometimes the tools just don&#8217;t come together.</p>
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		<title>By: Marc</title>
		<link>http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/11/jeff-francoeurs-head-is-still-up-his-butt/comment-page-1/#comment-105217</link>
		<dc:creator>Marc</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 21 Nov 2008 20:28:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=1117#comment-105217</guid>
		<description>What people want is humility. Francoeur ought to be saying, &quot;Yeah, I absolutely sucked last year. There are no excuses. Braves fans have a right to be disappointed and I&#039;m out to prove that last year was an anomaly.&quot;

Instead, he&#039;s just making excuses and trying to weasel around the facts, saying that if you take 80 games away, it wasn&#039;t that bad a season. Guess what? You can&#039;t take 80 games away. If that were possible, why play 162?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What people want is humility. Francoeur ought to be saying, &#8220;Yeah, I absolutely sucked last year. There are no excuses. Braves fans have a right to be disappointed and I&#8217;m out to prove that last year was an anomaly.&#8221;</p>
<p>Instead, he&#8217;s just making excuses and trying to weasel around the facts, saying that if you take 80 games away, it wasn&#8217;t that bad a season. Guess what? You can&#8217;t take 80 games away. If that were possible, why play 162?</p>
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