Arbitration Potpourri
Time is more scarce than usual these days. I want to comment on the arbitration offers and non-offers that were decided yesterday. Thanks to MLB Trade Rumors, I’ve got a quick list to go on.
Below, I list the players, their expected marginal revenue products (MRP) for 2009 (which ought to approximate their value on a one-year contract), and a brief comment. I define a deal as good/bad, if the expected MRP differs from what I expect the player will earn in arbitration based on recent salary. In theory, one-year arbitration awards ought to approximate MRP, but rules that limit significant salary cuts may prevent a player’s salary from falling far enough to make a signing worthwhile.
Offers Player Expected MRP Comment Type A (15 players) A.J. Burnett $11.5 Push* Orlando Cabrera $15.5 Good Juan Cruz $3.75 Good Brian Fuentes $3.75 Bad Orlando Hudson $16.8 Good Raul Ibanez $12.5 Good Derek Lowe $12.5 Good Darren Oliver $3.75 Good Oliver Perez $8.25 Good Manny Ramirez $18.2 Good Francisco Rodriguez $4.75 Bad** C.C. Sabathia $19 Good Ben Sheets $10 Bad Mark Teixeira $17.5 Good Jason Varitek $11 Push Type B (9 players) Casey Blake $13.5 Good Milton Bradley $13 Good Paul Byrd $10 Good Jon Garland $11 Bad Mark Grudzielanek $10 Good Brandon Lyon $4.25 Good Dennys Reyes $2 Good Brian Shouse $2.5 Good David Weathers $4.5 Good Declines Player Expected MRP Comment Bobby Abreu $14 Good Joe Beimel $3.5 Push Pat Burrell $14 Push Adam Dunn $14.5 Push Braden Looper $8.3 Bad Jamie Moyer $9.5 Bad Randy Wolf $11 Bad Kerry Wood $3 Good
*Burnett is going to go. There is no reason not to offer arbitration. I believe he’s overvalued by the market, but it appears my assessment deviates from the market assessment.
**Rodriguez will likely get more than I value him, so it probably wasn’t a bad move to offer arbitration.
I’d like to comment further, but I am on my way out the door.
Does your MRP for Dunn assume he’s a left fielder? If so what is his MRP as a first baseman? I’m thinking that his defensive “cost” is much less at first, while he still has the same offensive value, or does the better average offense at first negate that savings?