Arbitration Potpourri

Time is more scarce than usual these days. I want to comment on the arbitration offers and non-offers that were decided yesterday. Thanks to MLB Trade Rumors, I’ve got a quick list to go on.

Below, I list the players, their expected marginal revenue products (MRP) for 2009 (which ought to approximate their value on a one-year contract), and a brief comment. I define a deal as good/bad, if the expected MRP differs from what I expect the player will earn in arbitration based on recent salary. In theory, one-year arbitration awards ought to approximate MRP, but rules that limit significant salary cuts may prevent a player’s salary from falling far enough to make a signing worthwhile.

Player			Expected MRP	Comment
Type A (15 players)
A.J. Burnett		$11.5		Push*
Orlando Cabrera		$15.5		Good
Juan Cruz		$3.75		Good
Brian Fuentes		$3.75		Bad
Orlando Hudson		$16.8		Good	
Raul Ibanez		$12.5		Good
Derek Lowe		$12.5		Good
Darren Oliver		$3.75		Good	
Oliver Perez		$8.25		Good
Manny Ramirez		$18.2		Good
Francisco Rodriguez	$4.75		Bad**
C.C. Sabathia		$19		Good
Ben Sheets		$10		Bad
Mark Teixeira		$17.5		Good
Jason Varitek		$11		Push

Type B (9 players)
Casey Blake		$13.5		Good
Milton Bradley		$13		Good
Paul Byrd		$10		Good
Jon Garland		$11		Bad
Mark Grudzielanek	$10		Good	
Brandon Lyon		$4.25		Good
Dennys Reyes		$2		Good
Brian Shouse		$2.5		Good
David Weathers		$4.5		Good

Player			Expected MRP	Comment	
Bobby Abreu		$14		Good
Joe Beimel		$3.5		Push
Pat Burrell		$14		Push
Adam Dunn		$14.5		Push	
Braden Looper		$8.3		Bad	
Jamie Moyer		$9.5		Bad	
Randy Wolf		$11		Bad
Kerry Wood		$3		Good

*Burnett is going to go. There is no reason not to offer arbitration. I believe he’s overvalued by the market, but it appears my assessment deviates from the market assessment.

**Rodriguez will likely get more than I value him, so it probably wasn’t a bad move to offer arbitration.

I’d like to comment further, but I am on my way out the door.

One Response “Arbitration Potpourri”

  1. Randy Hill says:

    Does your MRP for Dunn assume he’s a left fielder? If so what is his MRP as a first baseman? I’m thinking that his defensive “cost” is much less at first, while he still has the same offensive value, or does the better average offense at first negate that savings?