Comments on: Breaking Down the Vazquez Deal http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/12/breaking-down-the-vazquez-deal/ Economic Thinking about Baseball Sun, 09 Jan 2011 17:16:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Timmy http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/12/breaking-down-the-vazquez-deal/comment-page-1/#comment-105287 Timmy Fri, 05 Dec 2008 15:06:11 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=1140#comment-105287 Marc, The bothersome part of the deal, is that I believe the Braves could've gotten more value for Flowers than they did.  Vazquez only has two years left on his deal, and I don't <em>actually</em> see the Braves being serious competitors in '09 or '10.  Regardless of the quality of pitching the Braves bring in they can't compete in the NL East with the horrific corner OF they have.  Even adding a big-time bat, this team was just average with Teixiera on it. I guess I just want this team to rebuild.  We've been re-tooling for four or five years now, and every year the team that is fielded looks a little bit worse.  It's not really a complaint against Vazquez, I just know that the Braves could've done better. Marc,

The bothersome part of the deal, is that I believe the Braves could’ve gotten more value for Flowers than they did.  Vazquez only has two years left on his deal, and I don’t actually see the Braves being serious competitors in ’09 or ’10.  Regardless of the quality of pitching the Braves bring in they can’t compete in the NL East with the horrific corner OF they have.  Even adding a big-time bat, this team was just average with Teixiera on it.

I guess I just want this team to rebuild.  We’ve been re-tooling for four or five years now, and every year the team that is fielded looks a little bit worse.  It’s not really a complaint against Vazquez, I just know that the Braves could’ve done better.

]]> By: Marc Lazzeri http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/12/breaking-down-the-vazquez-deal/comment-page-1/#comment-105285 Marc Lazzeri Fri, 05 Dec 2008 03:02:04 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=1140#comment-105285 Timmy, This trade is essentially Flowers for Vazquez. If Lillibridge, Gilmore, or Rodriguez ever come back to bite the Braves in the ass, I would be seriously surprised. This is a good, solid trade and nothing that a Braves fan should find "bothersome. Timmy,

This trade is essentially Flowers for Vazquez. If Lillibridge, Gilmore, or Rodriguez ever come back to bite the Braves in the ass, I would be seriously surprised. This is a good, solid trade and nothing that a Braves fan should find “bothersome.

]]> By: jfish26101 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/12/breaking-down-the-vazquez-deal/comment-page-1/#comment-105279 jfish26101 Thu, 04 Dec 2008 15:26:57 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=1140#comment-105279 It isn't the only way to rebuild but when you keep trading half a dozen prospects out of your top 20/30 every year in a feeble attempt to stay above .500 and compete in a very difficult division, you might be better off to take that route.  I mean the Marlins have won two WS in the past 10-11 years.  I'm not saying I want to take the Marlins approach and win one WS every five years and lose 90+ games the other four but there is no shame in having to pack it in once in a great while.  I just don't agree that a #4 in the AL comes to the NL and is instantly a #2 like everyone is saying.  Vazqez has always been a guy with the stuff to be an ace/front line type starter but over the past 5-6 years has lost his way.  He had one great season in 2007 out of the past five, I just don't see him as a difference maker when I didn't think Peavy (a true ace) was enough to compete with the Phillies/Mets next season. It isn’t the only way to rebuild but when you keep trading half a dozen prospects out of your top 20/30 every year in a feeble attempt to stay above .500 and compete in a very difficult division, you might be better off to take that route.  I mean the Marlins have won two WS in the past 10-11 years.  I’m not saying I want to take the Marlins approach and win one WS every five years and lose 90+ games the other four but there is no shame in having to pack it in once in a great while.  I just don’t agree that a #4 in the AL comes to the NL and is instantly a #2 like everyone is saying.  Vazqez has always been a guy with the stuff to be an ace/front line type starter but over the past 5-6 years has lost his way.  He had one great season in 2007 out of the past five, I just don’t see him as a difference maker when I didn’t think Peavy (a true ace) was enough to compete with the Phillies/Mets next season.

]]> By: Marc Schneider http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/12/breaking-down-the-vazquez-deal/comment-page-1/#comment-105278 Marc Schneider Thu, 04 Dec 2008 14:15:56 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=1140#comment-105278 Flowers seems more valuable to an AL team because of the DH.  It seems to me that Wren is making a concerted effort to keep the prospects that the team expects to build around and to use the others to acquire talent.  That seems reasonable to me.  Maybe he will be wrong about some of the players he traded but given the odds of even a high-caliber prospect making it, I can't get too upset about trading a Class A player.  I mean, even if they were going to rebuild, there is no reason for them to do a Marlins and lose 100 games, which people seem to think is the only way to rebuild.  The fact is, if you look at the team now, it's pretty young.  The rotation includes Jurrjens, probably Hanson by the middle of the year, young middle infield (unless they trade one of them), young at catcher.   Flowers seems more valuable to an AL team because of the DH.  It seems to me that Wren is making a concerted effort to keep the prospects that the team expects to build around and to use the others to acquire talent.  That seems reasonable to me.  Maybe he will be wrong about some of the players he traded but given the odds of even a high-caliber prospect making it, I can’t get too upset about trading a Class A player.  I mean, even if they were going to rebuild, there is no reason for them to do a Marlins and lose 100 games, which people seem to think is the only way to rebuild.  The fact is, if you look at the team now, it’s pretty young.  The rotation includes Jurrjens, probably Hanson by the middle of the year, young middle infield (unless they trade one of them), young at catcher.  

]]> By: Trey http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/12/breaking-down-the-vazquez-deal/comment-page-1/#comment-105277 Trey Thu, 04 Dec 2008 11:48:09 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=1140#comment-105277 Just a Braves fan chiming in here. Vasquez seems like a "solid" mlb pitcher. I haven't seen him pitch in a while (since Expos days), but from what I gather from Sox fans..he isn't as bad as Ozzie says, but not nearly as good as he should be (that sound about right, Sox fans?). What I can tell you about is the "prospects" you guys got. I only say "prospects" in a general sence, because I dont beleive Lill'bridge is a prospect anymore. He's currently a fringe MLB player, but what concerns me about him (and should concern Sox fans) is that he always seems to look like a AAAA player. He's definately too good to be in AAA but just seems overwhelmed in the show. He has a hard time getting around on major league caliber fastballs, which usually means "adios" after 2-3 seasons. He has A- speed, with potential to steal 20-30 bases consistently (he's not just fast, he has baserunning skills to go along), but he would need to keep his average at .280 to .310 to be effective. He doesnt walk as much as you would like either. Hope Im wrong on him...he's a good clubhouse guy from what Dave O'Brien says. Then there's the two throw in guys....Rodriguez and Gillmore. I have to say, I was surprised the Sox wanted these two. Rodriguez has a good arm, but is a long ways away from anything we could actually project major league wise. He's like signing a guy from Cuba or DR, could be great, could never pan out....definately a risk....and as is, cant be worth too much. Gillmore I know a little bit more about. He's Chipper's supposed replacement in 3 years. He's got power...but strikes out a lot (sound familar...Marte anyone?) Our organization has been pushing "Chipper replacement" players and none have turned out so far. He might. Maybe you guys stole him, but the Braves have been pretty good at letting the right prospects go over the years. That would seem to have more to do with our scout's rather than GM, but who knows. Seems sketchy to me that Wren gave him up along with Flowers. Probably means someone at some level see's something wrong in him. That brings me to the hard-to-pin-down Flowers. This is the guy who should matter to you guys. He's raw, yes, but posesses the kinda swing that makes grown men cry. He put up monster (and I mean monster) shots in spring training last year. That caught the eye of ol'Bobby, which is hard to do for typical young Braves players. I see him hitting 35-40 HR's a year when he gets his feet under him in the pro game. He really is a true top ten prospect. Problem for the Braves is, he's never going to be a major league catcher. When other teams found that out, his trade value was going to plummet. For you guys, he's probably your DH of the future. That, unfortunatley, wasn't an option with the Braves, and from what I've read about him (that $ i pay thebravesshow.com is worth something, sometimes..lol), he isnt going to be able to play 1B or 3B either. When you guys see him, you'll see why OF isn't an option either. He's real, real, big. He's very slow. Think a bigger and slower Adam Dunn. Boy can he hit though. Overall I think the Braves got exactly what they think they are getting, at market price. Sure, I would love to have Flowers back. He's the only one though, and you can't get veteran major league pitching without giving up something of value. I think your GM went for high ceiling, high risk prospects except for Lill'bridge. He's probably just a pintch-runner, who can play 2b,ss,3b,cf, which is valuable when rounding out a roster. The player who kinda throws me through a loop is the LOOGY we got with Vasquesz. Guess he's a cheap lefty not arb eligable until 2010, which makes him valuable to the Braves considering our "lefty reliever issues" over tha past few seasons. Just a Braves fan chiming in here. Vasquez seems like a “solid” mlb pitcher. I haven’t seen him pitch in a while (since Expos days), but from what I gather from Sox fans..he isn’t as bad as Ozzie says, but not nearly as good as he should be (that sound about right, Sox fans?). What I can tell you about is the “prospects” you guys got. I only say “prospects” in a general sence, because I dont beleive Lill’bridge is a prospect anymore. He’s currently a fringe MLB player, but what concerns me about him (and should concern Sox fans) is that he always seems to look like a AAAA player. He’s definately too good to be in AAA but just seems overwhelmed in the show. He has a hard time getting around on major league caliber fastballs, which usually means “adios” after 2-3 seasons. He has A- speed, with potential to steal 20-30 bases consistently (he’s not just fast, he has baserunning skills to go along), but he would need to keep his average at .280 to .310 to be effective. He doesnt walk as much as you would like either. Hope Im wrong on him…he’s a good clubhouse guy from what Dave O’Brien says. Then there’s the two throw in guys….Rodriguez and Gillmore. I have to say, I was surprised the Sox wanted these two. Rodriguez has a good arm, but is a long ways away from anything we could actually project major league wise. He’s like signing a guy from Cuba or DR, could be great, could never pan out….definately a risk….and as is, cant be worth too much. Gillmore I know a little bit more about. He’s Chipper’s supposed replacement in 3 years. He’s got power…but strikes out a lot (sound familar…Marte anyone?) Our organization has been pushing “Chipper replacement” players and none have turned out so far. He might. Maybe you guys stole him, but the Braves have been pretty good at letting the right prospects go over the years. That would seem to have more to do with our scout’s rather than GM, but who knows. Seems sketchy to me that Wren gave him up along with Flowers. Probably means someone at some level see’s something wrong in him. That brings me to the hard-to-pin-down Flowers. This is the guy who should matter to you guys. He’s raw, yes, but posesses the kinda swing that makes grown men cry. He put up monster (and I mean monster) shots in spring training last year. That caught the eye of ol’Bobby, which is hard to do for typical young Braves players. I see him hitting 35-40 HR’s a year when he gets his feet under him in the pro game. He really is a true top ten prospect. Problem for the Braves is, he’s never going to be a major league catcher. When other teams found that out, his trade value was going to plummet. For you guys, he’s probably your DH of the future. That, unfortunatley, wasn’t an option with the Braves, and from what I’ve read about him (that $ i pay thebravesshow.com is worth something, sometimes..lol), he isnt going to be able to play 1B or 3B either. When you guys see him, you’ll see why OF isn’t an option either. He’s real, real, big. He’s very slow. Think a bigger and slower Adam Dunn. Boy can he hit though.
Overall I think the Braves got exactly what they think they are getting, at market price. Sure, I would love to have Flowers back. He’s the only one though, and you can’t get veteran major league pitching without giving up something of value. I think your GM went for high ceiling, high risk prospects except for Lill’bridge. He’s probably just a pintch-runner, who can play 2b,ss,3b,cf, which is valuable when rounding out a roster. The player who kinda throws me through a loop is the LOOGY we got with Vasquesz. Guess he’s a cheap lefty not arb eligable until 2010, which makes him valuable to the Braves considering our “lefty reliever issues” over tha past few seasons.

]]> By: Timmy http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/12/breaking-down-the-vazquez-deal/comment-page-1/#comment-105275 Timmy Wed, 03 Dec 2008 19:26:47 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=1140#comment-105275 Just to clarify, I realize Gilmore is not a top prospect, or anything close to equal to Flowers.  But is giving first round draft choices away before you even know what you have a wise decision?  We basically paid Gilmore's signing bonus for the Sox, then gave him to them. Mostly, I just know the Braves could have gotten a better return for Flowers than they got.  I  mean what are we trying to do, put an average team out there year after year, or build a championship-caliber club?  The Braves seem content with doing the former, and that pisses me off just a bit. Flowers' bat is a lot closer than one might expect, and for a club desperately searching for any RH that can produce, I really wish we had either tried him in LF or traded him to another club for a young hitter that was blocked in their system.  We would have been better off giving him up to the Padres and getting Peavy, I think, even though I was opposed to that idea as well. ... Also, to Rick on Flowers' IQ calling games... a couple things I'd like to point out. Who is Tommy Hanson's backstop of choice? Tyler Flowers. Also, consider how well the Braves pitchers performed in the AFL all of whom were pitching exclusively to Tyler Flowers. Hanson led the league in ERA, WHIP, K's... Medlen finished second in WHIP and Marek never gave up a run. For a league where a 5.75 ERA is the average, I'd say he was doing alright calling the game for those guys. Just to clarify, I realize Gilmore is not a top prospect, or anything close to equal to Flowers.  But is giving first round draft choices away before you even know what you have a wise decision?  We basically paid Gilmore’s signing bonus for the Sox, then gave him to them.

Mostly, I just know the Braves could have gotten a better return for Flowers than they got.  I  mean what are we trying to do, put an average team out there year after year, or build a championship-caliber club?  The Braves seem content with doing the former, and that pisses me off just a bit.

Flowers’ bat is a lot closer than one might expect, and for a club desperately searching for any RH that can produce, I really wish we had either tried him in LF or traded him to another club for a young hitter that was blocked in their system.  We would have been better off giving him up to the Padres and getting Peavy, I think, even though I was opposed to that idea as well.

…
Also, to Rick on Flowers’ IQ calling games… a couple things I’d like to point out.
Who is Tommy Hanson’s backstop of choice? Tyler Flowers.

Also, consider how well the Braves pitchers performed in the AFL all of whom were pitching exclusively to Tyler Flowers. Hanson led the league in ERA, WHIP, K’s… Medlen finished second in WHIP and Marek never gave up a run. For a league where a 5.75 ERA is the average, I’d say he was doing alright calling the game for those guys.

]]> By: mravery http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/12/breaking-down-the-vazquez-deal/comment-page-1/#comment-105274 mravery Wed, 03 Dec 2008 18:54:13 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=1140#comment-105274 Gilmore? Really, Timmy? Gilmore? Kid played well in rookie ball. Do you know how many players play well in Rookie ball? This guy is just projection at this point. He's nowhere near the prospect that Tyler Flowers is, and even he's probably not a top 50 guy. Gilmore? Really, Timmy? Gilmore? Kid played well in rookie ball. Do you know how many players play well in Rookie ball? This guy is just projection at this point. He’s nowhere near the prospect that Tyler Flowers is, and even he’s probably not a top 50 guy.

]]> By: Rich http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/12/breaking-down-the-vazquez-deal/comment-page-1/#comment-105273 Rich Wed, 03 Dec 2008 18:51:25 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=1140#comment-105273 I have to agree that I like this deal.  The Braves have really been hamstrung the past few seasons with dead arms in the starting rotation.  Bringing Glavine back was nothing more than a publicity stunt, and a poor one at that.  They need a couple of veteran pitchers with there arm still attached.  This deal looks even better if they can sign Burnett. I honestly don't get the love affair with Flowers.  He put together one good season in the minors.  He can hit, there's no doubt about that, but he is still at least a few years away and scouts act as if he has the IQ of homer simpson as far as calling a game is concerned.  When he proves to be a better catcher than McCann or Mauer, then you can throw it in my face.  He has DH written all over him, which doesn't do the Braves any good.  Prospects are a dime a dozen and most never even see the majors. I'm still shocked that the Padres didn't accept the Bravos offer for Peavey. I hope the Padres have to basically give him to the Yankees for nothing and watch every team in baseball go crazy about it. I have to agree that I like this deal.  The Braves have really been hamstrung the past few seasons with dead arms in the starting rotation.  Bringing Glavine back was nothing more than a publicity stunt, and a poor one at that.  They need a couple of veteran pitchers with there arm still attached.  This deal looks even better if they can sign Burnett.

I honestly don’t get the love affair with Flowers.  He put together one good season in the minors.  He can hit, there’s no doubt about that, but he is still at least a few years away and scouts act as if he has the IQ of homer simpson as far as calling a game is concerned.  When he proves to be a better catcher than McCann or Mauer, then you can throw it in my face.  He has DH written all over him, which doesn’t do the Braves any good.  Prospects are a dime a dozen and most never even see the majors.

I’m still shocked that the Padres didn’t accept the Bravos offer for Peavey. I hope the Padres have to basically give him to the Yankees for nothing and watch every team in baseball go crazy about it.

]]> By: JC http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/12/breaking-down-the-vazquez-deal/comment-page-1/#comment-105272 JC Wed, 03 Dec 2008 18:48:23 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=1140#comment-105272 I don't know the answer to that. I don’t know the answer to that.

]]> By: Keith http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/12/breaking-down-the-vazquez-deal/comment-page-1/#comment-105271 Keith Wed, 03 Dec 2008 18:37:03 +0000 http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/?p=1140#comment-105271 Just a question for JC (or any other Braves fan who cares to answer): What would you peg the chances are of Flowers sticking at catcher, even if it means him being a below-average defender there?  There seems to be a growing consensus that Flowers will have to move off of catcher (which I don't necessarily think is false), but I combat that with having a tough time believing Kenny Williams would make Flowers the centerpiece of the deal if he didn't have a strong belief that he'd be able to stick behind the plate for at least a couple of big-league seasons.  Thoughts? Just a question for JC (or any other Braves fan who cares to answer):

What would you peg the chances are of Flowers sticking at catcher, even if it means him being a below-average defender there?  There seems to be a growing consensus that Flowers will have to move off of catcher (which I don’t necessarily think is false), but I combat that with having a tough time believing Kenny Williams would make Flowers the centerpiece of the deal if he didn’t have a strong belief that he’d be able to stick behind the plate for at least a couple of big-league seasons. 

Thoughts?

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