Comments on: Ibanez Versus Burrell

By: D-Egg

D-Egg — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 20:47:49 +0000

Do the projections factor in that Burrell plays like he’s 38? He’s not exactly in great shape, he’s a playboy, known for his BP hangovers, always seems to have a back or foot issue, whereas Ibanez is a work-out demon who may be in top physical shape (I don’t know his injury history or propensity for injury). Also, are monster (two-month) slumps like the one Burrell crawled through in August and September a sign of decline, whereas Ibanez has not shown that particular danger sign? What are the signs of decline other than age? Because I think that alone may be somewhat misleading in the case of both players.

By: JC

JC — Tue, 16 Dec 2008 15:59:21 +0000

I don’t have time to walk through individual estimates at this time. These estimates are an outgrowth of a much bigger project. I have explained my method, these are the estimates that result from that method. When my next book is published the changes to the model will be explained in even much greater detail than I they were in my previous book.

By: TangoTiger

TangoTiger — Tue, 16 Dec 2008 15:36:45 +0000

I think he was asking for the numbers you actually used to feed into your engine, considering that your final evaluation of him is far above what he is being paid, and I’m not sure that there are many (any?) analysts that think that Ibanez signed for a discount. You’ve got him worth at 50% above what he signed for, while I have him worth at 70% below what he signed for. It’s hard to have a discussion on his overall worth, if we don’t see the (quantified) individual components that you used.

By: JC

JC — Tue, 16 Dec 2008 14:40:00 +0000

I have added a new answer to the FAQ page regarding my estimates of player values.

By: Anthony

Anthony — Tue, 16 Dec 2008 14:05:19 +0000

Can you walk us through how you came to the 3/46.5 value for Ibanez?

By: JC

JC — Tue, 16 Dec 2008 04:03:30 +0000

The aging estimates are based on a study of mine. But, you don't really need this to expect Ibanez to continue to play well even as he declines. He's been an 120 OPS+ player for the past three seasons, and it would be unusual for him to just fall off a cliff. His value is also helped by the growth of MLB revenues.

By: Jeffrey Beaumont

Jeffrey Beaumont — Tue, 16 Dec 2008 00:05:31 +0000

JC,

Understand that the draft picks complicate the issue, but even that aside, I think we’re all pretty interested to hear how you think Ibanez will maintain the same value in years 38 and 39 vs Burrell in 33 and 34….? I know players age better now than in the past, but 38 and 39 is still pretty dangerous territory.

By: Brian

Brian — Mon, 15 Dec 2008 23:24:26 +0000

Well, the Phillies would be giving up defense for offense, which is odd since they’re in the NL and they would have to go with him as their everyday LF. Last year, Ibanez did fairly well against lefties, but that hasn’t been the case for most of his career. Surely, the M’s will miss his offense in 2009 since they acquired Endy Chavez and probably have Greg Halman coming up, but I was a little surprised an AL team didn’t pick him up. Even the Angels could have DH’ed him.

By: JC

JC — Mon, 15 Dec 2008 22:48:53 +0000

The loss of draft picks is no doubt a negative of not offering arbitration to Burrell and signing Ibanez. The lost value to Ibanez ought to be reflected in his signing salary, and I do estimate that he is being paid below his estimated value (approximately $15 million). As for the lost picks from Burrell, it must have been an interesting choice. If you offer it, he probably accepts and you end up paying a salary equal to his worth. If he rejects you get two picks and you can sign Ibanez. My guess is that they wanted to avoid the former.

By: Rick

Rick — Mon, 15 Dec 2008 21:17:04 +0000

I could be wrong here, but I read that the value of a 1st round pick is around $10mm or maybe more.