Archive for December, 2008

Arbitration Potpourri

Time is more scarce than usual these days. I want to comment on the arbitration offers and non-offers that were decided yesterday. Thanks to MLB Trade Rumors, I’ve got a quick list to go on.

Below, I list the players, their expected marginal revenue products (MRP) for 2009 (which ought to approximate their value on a one-year contract), and a brief comment. I define a deal as good/bad, if the expected MRP differs from what I expect the player will earn in arbitration based on recent salary. In theory, one-year arbitration awards ought to approximate MRP, but rules that limit significant salary cuts may prevent a player’s salary from falling far enough to make a signing worthwhile.


Offers
Player			Expected MRP	Comment
Type A (15 players)
A.J. Burnett		$11.5		Push*
Orlando Cabrera		$15.5		Good
Juan Cruz		$3.75		Good
Brian Fuentes		$3.75		Bad
Orlando Hudson		$16.8		Good	
Raul Ibanez		$12.5		Good
Derek Lowe		$12.5		Good
Darren Oliver		$3.75		Good	
Oliver Perez		$8.25		Good
Manny Ramirez		$18.2		Good
Francisco Rodriguez	$4.75		Bad**
C.C. Sabathia		$19		Good
Ben Sheets		$10		Bad
Mark Teixeira		$17.5		Good
Jason Varitek		$11		Push

Type B (9 players)
Casey Blake		$13.5		Good
Milton Bradley		$13		Good
Paul Byrd		$10		Good
Jon Garland		$11		Bad
Mark Grudzielanek	$10		Good	
Brandon Lyon		$4.25		Good
Dennys Reyes		$2		Good
Brian Shouse		$2.5		Good
David Weathers		$4.5		Good


Declines
Player			Expected MRP	Comment	
Bobby Abreu		$14		Good
Joe Beimel		$3.5		Push
Pat Burrell		$14		Push
Adam Dunn		$14.5		Push	
Braden Looper		$8.3		Bad	
Jamie Moyer		$9.5		Bad	
Randy Wolf		$11		Bad
Kerry Wood		$3		Good

*Burnett is going to go. There is no reason not to offer arbitration. I believe he’s overvalued by the market, but it appears my assessment deviates from the market assessment.

**Rodriguez will likely get more than I value him, so it probably wasn’t a bad move to offer arbitration.

I’d like to comment further, but I am on my way out the door.