Archive for December, 2008
Time is more scarce than usual these days. I want to comment on the arbitration offers and non-offers that were decided yesterday. Thanks to MLB Trade Rumors, I’ve got a quick list to go on.
Below, I list the players, their expected marginal revenue products (MRP) for 2009 (which ought to approximate their value on a one-year contract), and a brief comment. I define a deal as good/bad, if the expected MRP differs from what I expect the player will earn in arbitration based on recent salary. In theory, one-year arbitration awards ought to approximate MRP, but rules that limit significant salary cuts may prevent a player’s salary from falling far enough to make a signing worthwhile.
Offers Player Expected MRP Comment Type A (15 players) A.J. Burnett $11.5 Push* Orlando Cabrera $15.5 Good Juan Cruz $3.75 Good Brian Fuentes $3.75 Bad Orlando Hudson $16.8 Good Raul Ibanez $12.5 Good Derek Lowe $12.5 Good Darren Oliver $3.75 Good Oliver Perez $8.25 Good Manny Ramirez $18.2 Good Francisco Rodriguez $4.75 Bad** C.C. Sabathia $19 Good Ben Sheets $10 Bad Mark Teixeira $17.5 Good Jason Varitek $11 Push Type B (9 players) Casey Blake $13.5 Good Milton Bradley $13 Good Paul Byrd $10 Good Jon Garland $11 Bad Mark Grudzielanek $10 Good Brandon Lyon $4.25 Good Dennys Reyes $2 Good Brian Shouse $2.5 Good David Weathers $4.5 Good Declines Player Expected MRP Comment Bobby Abreu $14 Good Joe Beimel $3.5 Push Pat Burrell $14 Push Adam Dunn $14.5 Push Braden Looper $8.3 Bad Jamie Moyer $9.5 Bad Randy Wolf $11 Bad Kerry Wood $3 Good
*Burnett is going to go. There is no reason not to offer arbitration. I believe he’s overvalued by the market, but it appears my assessment deviates from the market assessment.
**Rodriguez will likely get more than I value him, so it probably wasn’t a bad move to offer arbitration.
I’d like to comment further, but I am on my way out the door.