The Phillies may have been able to control his cost more easily, but from what I’ve seen it seems to have pissed him off a little, and I think it is much more likely that Howard bolts the first chance he gets, or at least seriously entertains the idea.

The Braves like to keep a strong nucleus together (see Smoltz and Chipper,) and keeping a guy in the minors when he is clearly ready to play in MLB doesn’t help build that bond.

I agree that it doesn’t hurt to have a glut of talent at a position, but I really do think Burrell and Dunn are more likely to be expensive liabilities in 2 years than impact players… and I’d hate to have to decide between eating a huge contract, sticking a dissatisfied player on the bench, or keeping Heyward in the minors when he’s ready to blossom.

Track Howard’s numbers the last two years (27 and 28 YO)-he’s losing ground in BA, OBA, and adj. OPS. The only year Howard’s adj OPS was worse than in ’08 was in the 39 AB season he had in his debut year (’04). And note that he is a terrible fielder and baserunner.

There is no way Howard is now at the peak of his game; his career track screams “old player skills”.

I do not believe the Phillies lost out on his best years, and it would be odd if he was already in decline.  Players tend to peak around 29; thus, he’s right at the top of his game just as he faces his final years of arbitration. That’s about as perfect as you can plan a player’s progression to the majors. It might turn out that Howard drops off a cliff next year and the Phillies missed out on his age 22-23, but I think it’s still the smart move.

As for the Braves, which is the subject of the post, I don’t think any of the Braves prospects will suffer from being blocked. And if they are blocked, the other players can be traded because they have value.

Considering Howard’s body type/skills, as early a debut as possible was in order-this is not someone who would age well. Howard ended up not playing in the majors in at least of his peak years. He is already in decline, so JC’s analysis, sorry to say, makes no sense. 

Great note in 7.  This is often lost in review.  Generally a position player good enough to be an average major leaguer porobably peaks around 29So, if you have 6 and 2/3 cost controlled years, you want those to center as close to 29 as possible.  So, for college juniors, You should want them to debut around 26 and for high schoolers no earlier than 23, Junior College guys, 24. 

Applying it specifically to Francouer, he started counting to service time two years earlier than he “had” to.  So, he will complete his “pre-arb” after 2011 when he is 27.  So, theoretically, taking out his first part season that clearly was a result of scouting reports not catching up, Frncoeur will have his best years after his cost controlled status is over.

I disagree. The Phillies left Howard in the minors about a year longer than necessary specifically because he was blocked by Thome.

If so, then the last thing he wants to do is to sing praises about Burrell/Dunn in the media right now and drive up the perceived demand for those players.

Who really knows? But if you’re a smart GM, you keep your cards close to your chest. Who anticipated the Vasquez/Flowers trade until right before it was announced?

In other words, let’s not assume DOB always makes accurate guesses about what’s on Wren’s mind. Maybe sometimes the Braves front office feeds the AJC misinformation intentionally.