Comments on: Yes, I Like the Pedroia Deal

By: Rick

Rick — Fri, 05 Dec 2008 13:57:34 +0000

As a Sox fan I love this deal. I think he could have gotten more, but it’s a classic risk/reward situation. It does leave money left on the table to sign other players. Tangotiger had a note in his blog about the deal. I believe that you and he differ on how you compute the value of players. And he’s basing his calculations on only 2 years of playing time. With his style of play, balls out all the time, I can see him being a pretty big injury risk in the future. And with that big swing he has, it wouldn’t take much to get him off track at the plate.
Link-http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/sabermetric_moves_of_the_2009_pre_season/#221

“He should have signed a 6/85 deal. So, he gave a 50% discount from a year-to-year deal. This is Chase Utley and Joe Mauer bad, for the player.

Clearly, teams are able to exploit the fact that players have so little leverage in their first three years, that the “million dollar sign” makes a huge difference.

If Pedroia was a free agent, he’d be worth 137MM for 6 years.

Follow me here: Pedroia, as a free agent, would have commanded a 6/137 deal. Under the slave/arb rules, he would have commanded a 6/86 deal, going year-by-year (on average, including the chance of injury). He locks himself in to a 6/40.5 deal.”

By: John

John — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 19:07:17 +0000

Great deal for the Red Sox, but I think Pedroia sold himself short by going for that many (6) years. I know it’s impossible to know whether he will be a fade early or peak later kind of guy, but wouldn’t it have been smart for him financially to settle for four years, maybe still manage a $30M deal (can still pay the ol’ bills), then become a free agent at 29 and ask for the moon?

At 29, he’d still be viewed as a player in the middle of his most productive years, with the potential for 5 to 7 more. If a maturing physique gives him 25+ homer potential, he would essentially be the Chase Utley of the AL. Chase signed 7 yrs $85M just after turning 28 almost two years ago.

By: MikeD

MikeD — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 18:37:31 +0000

Players holding out for better contracts isn’t something we’ve seen much of since free agency because players have been getting top dollar as free agents. I wonder, however, if this trend will change in a few years. We’re seeing teams, wisely I believe, lock in their young stars to longer-term deals that seem great today for the players, but may be viewed less so in a few years by those same players. If Longoria turns into the second coming of Mike Schmidt, might he decide to hold out to get what he views as his market value? If Pedroia continues to perform at the high level he established in ’08, will he demand Derek Jeter-type money three or four years in?

By: Dan

Dan — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 16:12:21 +0000

Yeah it’s your last point that I wonder about. What you say makes sense from the team’s perspective, but I see all these instances where people hold out for more money or (more prescient for me as a Cincinnati bearcat fan) coaches that get their contracts re-done while threatening to bolt to other schools.

On the one hand, it seems simple to, if you signed a contract, to honor your word. But it doesn’t seem like anybody really does this…

By: JC

JC — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 16:06:50 +0000

Economic conditions may affect revenue in the near term, but I expect the long-run trend to continue. If we’re in a recession in seven years, we’re in big trouble.

By: Tucker

Tucker — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 15:52:25 +0000

Up here we describe that ending scenario you describe as a Nomar situation. Still three times his salary in FA years? Don’t you think that salary growth will slow due to macro-economic situations?